Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
236 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

As was expected, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be the
initial focus to begin the short term portion of the forecast for
late this afternoon into the early evening.

A shortwave impulse is currently dropping southeast over southwest
Quebec Province with an associated upper-level jet maximum
currently moving southeast across eastern Upper Michigan and
northern Lake Michigan. The RRQ of this feature is helping to
provide some weak synoptic scale upward motion in concert with
some focused boundary layer lift associated with a cold dropping
southward across the forecast area. Along and ahead of the
frontal boundary SBCAPES were pushing 2500 J/Kg (RAP) with 0-6
shear of 25-30 kts over northeast/eastcentral Wisconsin. Local
RAP soundings indicated inverted-V profiles which would favor a
greater strong wind gust potential. Near storm environment is
certainly favorable for a few isolated storms to get close to
severe limits for the next couple of hours in this area. PWs are
still holding in the 1.25" range with winds in the lower half of
the troposphere somewhat weak, so precipitation efficiency will be
favorable for some brief torrential downpours. West of the Fox
Valley, overall forcing is weaker in general, thus storms will be
weaker and be more isolated in nature.

CAM guidance suggests surface frontal boundary should drop south
of the forecast area by around 02-03Z so anticipate isolated to
scattered convection to end with skies gradually clearing
overnight.

Some patchy fog still seems plausible, especially over parts of
northcentral Wisconsin as residual boundary layer moisture will
likely linger and winds become light after midnight.

To end the work week, Friday should be a decent day with daytime
highs mostly in the low to middle 80s with more comfortable
dewpoints falling into the upper 50s by later in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

The main focus of the extended period will be the active weather
potential over the weekend. Behind this quiet weather will start
off the upcoming work week before the next chance for rain crosses
by the midweek.

Surface high pressure will still be in the region Friday night
into Saturday morning, making for a dry start to the extended
period. Skies will likely be cloudy through the day as a
strengthening low pressure system brings in warm air aloft, which
will limit daytime highs to the lower to middle 80s for most of
the region. Warm air advection will likely bring a few showers
into the region by Saturday evening as the warm front lifts into
the region. Precipitation coverage then increases through the
overnight hours but will mostly remain light as convective potential
will be fairly limited during this period. By Sunday morning, the
low pressure system will begin to occlude and slow down,
prolonging precipitation through much of Sunday. Dynamics will
improve over the day Sunday as the low passes over Wisconsin,
bringing in fairly strong vorticity advection as the colder air on
the backside of this system begins to filter in behind this
system. As a result, there could be some potential for severe
weather, especially if we can develop any better instability
during the day. Another concern will be the potential for very
high rainfall totals. This system will have access to Gulf
moisture for much of Sunday as additional convection develops,
and with PWATs pushing 1.75-2.25 inches, heavy rainfall will be
possible much of the day Sunday. Much of central to east-central
WI is in the Day 4 Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. There is
still some time for the axis of the heaviest rain to shift with
the warm front in the next few days, but confidence is growing
that widespread heavy rainfall will be something to watch for this
weekend.

Behind this system, quieter weather will be in place to start off
the work week. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal
early next week, ranging from the lower to upper 70s by the middle
of the week. Models do bring another shortwave through the region
by the middle of the week, but the timing on this is still fairly
uncertain.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

A weak cold front will push south across the area this afternoon
and evening, producing isolated showers and storms. The stronger
storms could produce brief gusty winds, small hail and heavy
downpours, and produce a short period of MVFR conditions. Confidence
low on location and coverage, so did not explicitly mention
thunder in TAFS. With this issuance, east-central Wisconsin TAF
locations would have the highest probably of seeing thunder this
afternoon as boundary layer convergence along the approaching
frontal boundary will be a bit stronger there.

VFR conditions should return after sunset as frontal boundary
passes to the south of the forecast area, however some patchy fog
may again be possible after midnight especially at RHI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......ESB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
244 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-041945-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
244 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest of the Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will continue across
eastcentral, and to a lesser extent central Wisconsin into the
early evening, especially for eastern central Wiscosnin and the
lakeshore. Wisconsin. A few storms may produce some wind gusts to
40 mph and small hail before sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Sunday into early Monday.
Some storms could be strong or severe and produce heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report hail, wind gusts over 30 mph,
and rain totals over one inch to the National Weather Service in
Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-041945-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
244 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Rest of the Afternoon and Tonight

A chance for scattered thunderstorms continues through the late
afternoon and early evening. Some storms could produce gusty
winds to 40 mph and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday and early Monday.
Some storms could be strong or severe.

ESB/Uhlmann

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