Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
851 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

As of 850 pm this evening, broken line of subsevere/marginally
severe storms continue to push east in association with cold front
extending from Lincoln County to northern Marinette County.
Although MLCAPE is slowly waning ahead of the cold front, deep
layer shear is still increasing along and immedietely behind the
cold front. Greatest MLCAPE extends along an axis from Clark
County (~ 1500 J/kg) NE to northern Marinette (~ 800 J/kg) where
strongest storms perist. Given storms are moving into a bit more
pristine airmass, a few of the storms could still push severe
limits with a few gusts to 60 mph and perhaps up to 1 inch hail.
Will continue to handle with strongly worded SPSs for now.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

The main focus of the short term will be the resolution of the
slow moving cold front, as it brings showers and storms to the
region this afternoon and evening.

As of the early afternoon, the cold front has slowly worked its
way into far northern Wisconsin, near the Upper Peninsula border.
Forcing along the front produced spotty showers and very isolated
thunder at times but each cell fell apart as it encountered the
warmer and much drier air further east. This drier air and capping
warm layer inhibited any convection or cumulus development across
the rest of the region for the early afternoon as well. As a
result, excluding far northern WI which remained in the 70s, the
rest of the region warmed rapidly into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Going forward, the dry air at the surface and warmer layer aloft
will remain the main challenge for active weather in the late
afternoon and evening. Overall, capping continues to erode slowly
across the region, mainly across the north where some convection
has begun to form just ahead of the main cold front. Instability
across the region has continued to increase as well, held back
mainly by the equally warm layers aloft. Thus, expect convective
initiation and more widespread storms to be mainly focused along
the front, as the additional forcing will likely be required to
break the cap. Meso models are more or less in line with this
thinking, developing storms initially across the far north in the
late afternoon to evening before gradually bringing additional
precipitation towards the rest of the region. This will mainly
focus severe weather towards the northwoods, as the front will
likely not reach portions of central to east- central WI until
diurnal instability is again on the decrease in the late evening.
Damaging winds and large hail remain the main severe weather
threats, as inverted-v soundings would support bringing wind gusts
to the surface while fairly low wet- bulb zero heights will
provide favorable hail conditions.

As we get into the overnight hours, additional precipitation will
be likely at times along the front, but severe potential should
become much more limited overnight. Any remaining showers and
storms will likely exit the region by daybreak on Tuesday. Cooler
temperatures will follow on Tuesday, with highs in the lower 70s
to lower 80s under sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Precipitation trends will be the main forecast concern.

An upper level low wobbling around the Hudson Bay/Ontario Province
region will persist through most of the extended forecast period,
with various short-waves, jet streaks and daytime instability
leading to periodic bouts of convection throughout the week.
It will be difficult to discern which days have the greatest
chance of rain, but models are now signaling better potential for
Wednesday, especially over the southern part of the forecast
area. Although a surface cold front will remain well south of the
region on Wednesday, an 850 mb low and warm front will track
through central WI, and a coupled upper level jet will provide
significant forcing. Likely pops seem reasonable for central and
east central WI on Wednesday, with chance pops farther north.
Will carry slight chance/chance pops for the remainder of the
week.

Temperatures: Below normal temperatures are anticipated due to
cloud cover and showers on Wednesday, with highs returning to
normal for most of the remaining extended period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 723 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

A cluster of showers and storms will continue so spread southeast
across the area this evening ahead of a cold front. The strongest
storms will produce hail, gusty winds and torrential rain. As we
lose daytime instability, the weakening trend will continue as the
storms head toward the Fox Valley and lake shore. The gusty
southwest winds will shift to the north west behind the front.

Skies will clear from northwest to southeast overnight into
Tuesday morning with VFR conditions expected, with clouds
increasing from the west in the afternoon/evening.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....Uhlmann
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Bersch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
245 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111945-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
245 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this late this afternoon and evening
as a cold front moves from northwest to southeast across the area.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging
winds and large hail, especially between 4 pm and 10 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Periodic chances for storms will occur from Wednesday through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111945-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
245 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Gusty south to southwest winds and building waves will create
conditions hazardous to small craft criteria on the bay and lake
this afternoon and evening. Boaters should exercise caution.

Thunderstorms could produce strong winds across the nearshore waters
late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Periodic chances for storms will occur from Wednesday through
Sunday.

Uhlmann/Kieckbusch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
855 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

WIZ018>020-030-031-110300-
Shawano WI-Langlade WI-Marathon WI-Menominee WI-Lincoln WI-
855 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Lincoln,
Marathon, northwestern Menominee, southern Langlade and western
Shawano Counties through 1000 PM CDT...

At 855 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Antigo to near Colby.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wausau, Antigo, Marshfield, Weston, Rib Mountain, Mosinee, Spencer,
Wittenberg, White Lake and Neopit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central, north central and northeastern Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4491 9031 4528 8928 4527 8868 4496 8870
      4468 8966 4470 9029 4471 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 288DEG 26KT 4523 8927 4486 9041

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
925 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     Hail             4 NE Lakewood           45.34N 88.48W
07/10/2023  E0.75 inch       Oconto             WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
925 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

WIZ019-030-031-110300-
Shawano WI-Langlade WI-Marathon WI-
925 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Marathon, southwestern Langlade and western Shawano Counties through
1000 PM CDT...

At 925 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Antigo, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Antigo, Birnamwood, Mattoon, Aniwa, Eland, Elmhurst, Hogarty and
Phlox.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central, north central and northeastern Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4499 8943 4513 8931 4506 8898 4485 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 283DEG 38KT 4504 8932

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
929 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     Hail             Polar                   45.16N 89.00W
07/10/2023  M0.75 inch       Langlade           WI   Public

&&

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