Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Green Bay, WI

564 
WWUS83 KGRB 031641
RFWGRB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1141 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023

...Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across central
Wisconsin...

.The ongoing drought, combined with record to near-record high
temperatures, southwest wind gusts up to 25 mph and low relative
humidity values will result in critical fire weather conditions
across portions of central Wisconsin this afternoon.

WIZ035>037-045-040000-
/O.CON.KGRB.FW.W.0004.230903T1800Z-230904T0000Z/
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Waushara-
1141 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* AFFECTED AREA...Wood, Portage, Waupaca and Waushara.

* TIMING...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 22 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Around 100 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Fires will start easily and spread quickly in these 
  conditions. So outdoor burning should not be attempted. Visit 
  the Wisconsin DNR website at 
  apps.dnr.wi.gov/wisburn/#/BurnRestrictions and click on the 
  appropriate county to view current burning restrictions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning is issued when critical fire weather
conditions are either occurring now, or are imminent. A
combination of strong winds, very low relative humidity, warm
temperatures and exceptionally dry fuels will create dangerous
wildland fire conditions. Persons are urged to be careful with
any activities that could potentially lead to a wildland fire.
Campfires, outdoor grills, smoking materials, chain saws, and all-
terrain vehicles all have the potential to throw a spark and
ignite a dangerous and destructive fire.

&&

$$

Kotenberg

597 
WWUS83 KGRB 040000
RFWGRB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023

WIZ035>037-045-040100-
/O.EXP.KGRB.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230904T0000Z/
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Waushara-
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

Temperatures have fallen from their afternoon highs along with
winds easing this evening. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning will be
allowed to expire.

$$

Kurimski

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1047 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

Key Message:

 -Widespread record to near-record high temperatures are expected
  across our entire forecast area for tomorrow.

* WHAT... Record to near-record high temperatures tomorrow.

* WHERE... Everywhere in our forecast area. The warmest temperatures
  will be from central Wisconsin through the Fox Valley region.

* FORECAST CONFIDENCE... Very high (over 90%)

* IMPACTS... Hot temperatures may cause heat illnesses to occur.

* ACTIONS... Take extra precautions if you work or spend time
  outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early
  morning or evening. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a
  cool and shaded location.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

Record high temperatures for tomorrow are generally in the low to
mid 90s. Forecast highs are in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees...
with record highs possibly being broken by around 1 pm.

Dewpoint values will likely (medium-high confidence) be near 60
degrees, so heat index values should not stray too far from actual
air temperatures... topping out in the mid to upper 90s Therefore, we
have opted to hold off on a Heat Advisory at this time.

Under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, wind speeds will likely
(medium-high confidence) be from the southwest at around 10 to 15
mph, with gusts to 20 mph.

The following is a summary of daily record highs and the current
forecast for Labor Day Weekend at our main climate locations (year
denoted in parenthesis):

Green Bay:  92 (1929)
Wausau:  95 (1929)
Rhinelander:  92 (1929)
Appleton:  97 (1937)
Antigo:  90 (1929)
Manitowoc:  92 (1929)
Marshfield:  94 (1929)
Merrill:  94 (1929)
Oshkosh:  95 (1937)
Stevens Point: 95 (1929)
Sturgeon Bay:  95 (1929)
Wisconsin Rapids:  94 (1937).

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

The big story during this period will be the record or record
high temperatures on Labor Day and Tuesday. Record high minimum
temperatures may be set as well. 850/925mb temperatures off the
charts for early September. Used the better performing Consall
guidance for lows and leaned towards the 75th percentile off the
model certainty tool for highs both days. Between Sunday and
Labor Day where a few locations could approach 100F. Looking back
at the records, the all-time record high for the month of
September is 101F set at New London (Sep 8, 1933), Appleton (Sep
2, 1913) and Crivitz High Falls (Sep 3, 1929). Humidity values
will be very low on Labor Day with humidity readings on the
increase on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The
dewpoint values will be nothing like the ones we saw in late
August that pushed the heat index over 110F. On Tuesday, there may
be a bit of southeast component to the wind over far eastern
Wisconsin where it may keep it a few degrees cooler with the wind
off Lake Michigan.

With the approaching cold front on Tuesday, a few of the models
depict some QPF during the afternoon. Decided to hold off until
the evening hours per coordination with surrounding offices when
the chances of rain arrive across the area. A cold front will
move across the region Tuesday night and will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. With such warm air aloft, there is a
lot of uncertainty if the storms would become severe. An upper
trough moves across the region on Wednesday which will bring a
continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. There are some
timing differences, therefore there is uncertainty in the amount
of coverage of showers and storms during the day into
Wednesday evening. There is a big discrepancy in the guidance for
highs on Wednesday, thus if there is more cloud cover along with
more showers and storms, the high temperature will need to be
lowered in the coming days. More typical September weather is
expected Thursday and Friday. Both the Canadian and GFS show 850mb
temperatures dropping to 6C to 7C across the north Thursday which
should lead to a cool start across the north.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

VFR conditions are expected during the taf period with some mid or
high clouds streaming over the TAF sites at times, particularly
overnight. Light surface winds and gusty southwest winds just off
the surface around 40 knots, as shows on the KGRB VWP product,
will cause LLWS to continue across all of the TAF sites overnight,
easing Sunday morning as the boundary layer mixes to the surface.
LLWS is expected to redevelop Sunday evening across the east-
central Wisconsin TAF sites.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

For today, locations across central WI that stay dry today will see
elevated fire weather conditions as RHs drop into the 30s.

For tomorrow, a FIRE WEATHER WATCH has been issued for most of
central Wisconsin through southwestern Wisconsin dry fuels, low
humidity, and gusty winds, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon
through early Sunday evening. As temps warm into the 90s, winds gust
to 25 mph an RHs drop into the 20s and 30s. Fuels will remain the
driest across parts of central and north central WI.

For Labor Day Monday, conditions look very similar to tomorrow's
forecast... with temperatures coming in just a few degrees cooler.
As a result, would think fire weather headlines are very plausible
once again for Monday afternoon and evening.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for WIZ035>037-045.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kotenberg
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kurimski
FIRE WEATHER...Kotenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
307 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-038>040-048>050-073-074-032015-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Winnebago-Calumet-Manitowoc-
Southern Marinette County-Southern Oconto County-
307 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Near record high temperatures are expected across the region from
Sunday through Tuesday. Those with outdoor plans during this
period should prepare for the hot weather.

Low relative humidity and gusty winds will lead to near-critical
fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday, especially across
the sandy soil regions of central and north-central WI.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday evening into
Wednesday. It is too early to determine the severity of the
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

LMZ521-522-541>543-032015-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
307 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Conditions hazardous to small craft may occur at times from
Sunday through Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening into
Wednesday.

WIZ035>037-045-032015-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Waushara-
307 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH is in effect for Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Near record high temperatures are expected across the region from
Sunday through Tuesday. Those with outdoor plans during this
period should prepare for the hot weather.

Low relative humidity and gusty winds will lead to near-critical
fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday, especially across
the sandy soil regions of central and north-central WI.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday evening into
Wednesday. It is too early to determine the severity of the
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

Kotenberg/Eckberg