Tornado Warning 14, NWS Goodland, KS

817 
WWUS53 KGLD 111936
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
136 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

NEC057-087-111946-
/O.EXP.KGLD.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230511T1945Z/
Hitchcock NE-Dundy NE-
136 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN
DUNDY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM MDT/245 PM CDT/...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT/700 PM CDT/ for
northwestern Kansas...and southwestern Nebraska.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Goodland.

LAT...LON 4000 10095 4000 10135 4018 10145 4024 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 147DEG 26KT 4008 10116 

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1230 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows the environment is more unstable and
has better effective shear over the eastern part of the forecast
area than the west, where the brief tornadoes have already
happened. Based on this trend, am thinking the tornado activity
should increase during the afternoon when storms move over that
part of the forecast area.

The moist environment is causing cloud bases to be quite low. This
is allowing the storms to take full advantage of the low level
shear and helicity.

Earlier in the day was more concerned about the intensity of the
storms with the next round that moves in mid afternoon. However
the latest mesoanalysis shows little to no effective shear. This
makes me think this round will be the main focus for today.

Due to the mid and low level lapse rates being rather stable, am
not expecting a large hail risk. The DCAPE is very low too due
to the moist environment. Therefore the risk for damaging winds is
very low.

Bottom line, the main threat today and into the evening will be
tornadoes with almost no threat for large hail or damaging winds.

UPDATE Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

The environment is becoming increasingly favorable for tornadic
development today as the bands of rainfall move through. As such
a tornado watch has been issued for the entire forecast area
through the afternoon. Based on the effective SRH, the eastern
part of the forecast area is more favored than the west for
tornado development. Have already had a couple storms capable of
producing a tornado over the west, so foresee the threat
increasing as storms develop over the eastern part of the forecast
area later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

Upper low will move into the area today bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms and a multitude of associated hazards.
The next band of showers and thunderstorms will develop by 15z
across southwestern portion of the area and lift northeast through
early this afternoon. As it moves into eastern areas it will
encounter a moderately unstable environment but with 40-50 kts of
deep layer shear. Despite the somewhat marginal instability, the
magnitude of the shear, higher than yesterday, should be
sufficient for a few embedded supercells to develop within the
band of storms. Additional thunderstorms will develop later this
afternoon near the center of the upper low in western areas, with
potentially another severe line of storms moving across the
forecast area. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
hazards, but certainly a few tornadoes will be possible with the
favorable shear and proximity to the upper low. While 0-3 km
helicity values are somewhat marginal this afternoon for tornadoes,
they do get better after 00z tonight, particularly in eastern
areas. This suggests that unlike yesterday the tornado risk may
extend into the after sunset hours, mainly in eastern areas.
Heavy rain will also be possible with HREF showing additional
rainfall amounts 1 to 2 inches underneath the main band of storms
this morning and afternoon. The highest risk for flooding will be
in the areas that received heavy rain yesterday, particularly
across portions of northwest Kansas. High temperatures will range
from the upper 50s in northeast Colorado to the upper 70s in north
central Kansas, with lows tonight in the 40s and 50s.

For Friday, upper low will be near the Kansas and Nebraska border
area in the morning and slowly lift north through the afternoon.
Area will now be in the wraparound precipitation with much more
stable conditions and no severe storms expected. Scattered showers
will continue through the afternoon with perhaps an embedded
thunderstorms in northern areas. Additional rainfall amounts of
less than a quarter of an inch are expected, so there will be no
further flooding concerns. High temperatures will range from the
lower 60s in northeast Colorado to the upper 70s in north central
Kansas. Precipitation will finally wind down Friday night with
lows in the 40s and 50s.

On Saturday, may see a few afternoon instability showers develop
with favorable TQ indices in the afternoon and remnant wraparound
showers to the north. However, most areas will be dry with partly
sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Saturday night another weak
system moving through the southern plains will bring a chance for
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms as they move in from the
south. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

For this long-term forecast period, the overall story remains the
same. Beginning with Sunday going into next week, an upper level low
pressure will have formed in the southwestern United States and will
move north before weakening. In addition, a jet streak will increase
overhead, providing upper level lift/support in the left exit
region. There should also be positive vorticity advection, or in
other words, a likely shortwave trough moving up along the Rockies.
All this will cause ample cloud cover across the region, and also
set the stage for potential precipitation in the form of showers and
possible rumbles of thunder. Precipitation will be light, and it may
even not materialize as there should be a competing force of a
surface low pressure moving south towards the region from the
northern Great Plains. No hazardous weather should be anticipated
from this weather system...just light rain possible along with the
clouds and below normal temperatures.

Going into next week, as the upper level low washes out, a ridge of
high pressure will build over the western United States. A trough of
low pressure takes shape over the Great Lakes, causing a north to
northwest flow pattern to become dominant across the High Plains.
This should allow for drier and warmer weather to return with
seasonal temperatures anticipated once again by Wednesday. Forecast
guidance is indicating the potential for some showers and storms
reaching as far east as eastern Colorado, and perhaps even across
the Colorado border, each afternoon and evening during the middle of
next week. That being said, the upper level isn't terribly conducive
to this happening, and it wouldn't surprise me at all of most of
this potential precipitation remains confined to the Rockies. Most
likely, we'll have a little time to dry out after the heavy rains
and we should also see significant greenup of the area vegetation,
eliminating the risk for any wildfires for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

IFR to VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The lowest conditions
this afternoon through the evening are expected to be under the
corridor of rainfall occurring. This corridor will move northeast
through the forecast area today and this evening. Visibility could
fall to a couple miles in the moderate rainfall for short periods
of time.

Another round of rainfall will move through both sites this
evening. These storms could become more intense than the storms
currently ongoing.

Behind the storm activity clouds will fall to IFR levels
overnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

MESOSCALE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121730-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1130 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023 /1230 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

The entire area is in a slight to enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms today and into this evening. All modes of hazards will
be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. A tornado watch is in effect for the entire Tri-State Area
through the afternoon. Flash flooding from heavy rainfall will also
be possible, particularly in areas that received heavy rainfall
yesterday. A flood watch is in effect for all counties except for
Greeley and Wichita counties through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1243 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TORNADO          5 S MCDONALD            39.72N 101.37W
05/11/2023                   RAWLINS            KS   911 CALL CENTER

            ONGOING RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO REPORTED SOUTH
            OF MCDONALD.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N WILD HORSE          38.91N 103.00W
05/11/2023  M2.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORT.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1255 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     TORNADO          4 WNW MCDONALD          39.80N 101.45W
05/11/2023                   CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            CALLER REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF ROAD 33 AND ROAD Q.

&&

KAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
102 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

KSZ013-111915-
Sherman KS-
102 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Sherman
County through 115 PM MDT...

At 102 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Goodland, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Goodland around 110 PM MDT.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 10 and 24.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for northwestern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 10166 3922 10188 3948 10184 3946 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 192DEG 36KT 3928 10175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Trigg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
105 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

NEZ079-111930-
Dundy NE-
105 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Dundy
County through 130 PM MDT...

At 105 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Champion, or 18 miles northwest of Benkelman, moving
northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Dundy
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for southwestern
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 10162 4011 10178 4025 10205 4031 10205
      4035 10200 4035 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 132DEG 21KT 4024 10178

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Trigg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     HAIL             3 NW LUDELL             39.88N 101.00W
05/11/2023  E0.70 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL OBSERVED WITH HEAVY
            RAINFALL.

&&

KMK