Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
537 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

Tonight...we'll have sufficient moisture and elevated instability
moving off the Colorado front range to support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms for much of the night. A few storms may produce some
wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail below one inch in diameter, mainly
before midnight. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower
60s to around 70.

Thursday-Thursday night...a potentially high impact weather day is
in store for the area. A weather system is forecast to move into the
area from the Palmer Divide/Denver metro area during the late
morning through afternoon hours, supporting isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. As this system continues moving to the northeast,
areal coverage and intensity of the thunderstorms is expected to
increase as a line of storms develops during the evening/overnight
hours. The primary hazards will be hail up to golf ball size or
slightly bigger to two inches in diameter in the early stages,
becoming a wind and heavy rain threat shortly after with wind gusts
up to 70 mph. Blowing dust is possible along the leading edge of the
gust front with significant reductions in visibility possible. PWAT
values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches during the evening support locally heavy
rainfall and a threat for flash flooding and flooding of poor
drainage and low lying areas. At this time, the greatest time for
severe weather is from 5 PM MDT through midnight MDT.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s
with low temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Friday-Friday night...the upper level flow becomes zonal, in between
elongated high pressure to our south and low pressure to our north.
We should have more of a lull in thunderstorm activity during the
day compared to whats in the forecast as we wait for the next
weather system to move through from the west. This would likely be
from mid to late afternoon through about midnight or so. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the 85 to 90 degree range with
low temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Saturday-Saturday night...the upper level flow shifts slightly to
northwest with continued chances for afternoon and overnight
thunderstorms as weather systems move through it. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the 85 to 90 degree range with low
temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

The forecast area remains in northwest flow aloft, in between low
pressure to our northeast and high pressure over northern Mexico.
Weather systems will move through the flow with heightened
chances for showers and thunderstorms during the typical late
afternoon through overnight hours.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday are forecast to be in the middle
70s to lower 80s. On Tuesday and Wednesday they are forecast to warm
slightly into the 80 to 85 degree range. Low temperatures are
forecast to generally be in the 55 to 60 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected during the 00Z TAF period
beginning with variable winds around 6 kts that become north-
northeasterly around 10 kts at 03Z when vicinity thunderstorm
chances begin. By 07Z, KGLD expects precipitation chances to
end with winds becoming variable around 6 kts again. At 17Z, KGLD
winds look to become east-southeasterly around 9 kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are also seen at KMCK throughout the 00Z
TAF period starting with variable winds around 6 kts. Chances for
thunderstorms near KMCK begin at 06Z that look to end by 12Z. At
19Z, KMCK winds expect to turn easterly around 7 kts through the
remainder of the period.

Some models hint at lower ceilings during the morning hours, but
not enough confidence to add them into TAFs at this time. As sub-
VFR conditions may be possible if these ceilings occur, will
monitor conditions and future model runs in case amendments to
TAFs are needed.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...076

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
758 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

COZ092-030245-
Cheyenne County CO-
758 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Cheyenne
County in east central Colorado through 845 PM MDT...

At 758 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Cheyenne Wells, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Cheyenne
County in east central Colorado, including the following locations...
Arapahoe and Firstview.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 136 and 156.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 10294 3892 10205 3862 10205 3862 10308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 262DEG 13KT 3873 10246

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
832 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

COZ091-092-030300-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
832 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado through 900 PM MDT...

At 832 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Bethune, or 16 miles southeast of Stratton, moving
east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 162 and 166.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3901 10254 3916 10255 3922 10231 3897 10229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 267DEG 6KT 3909 10247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJC