Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
534 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over Southeast CO.
Ahead of the closed low was a corridor of rainfall.  The corridor
was moving northeast while the storms themselves were moving
northwest.  The environment is becoming very favorable for tornadoes
to form.  However the environment is too stable for large hail or
damaging winds to form.  The tornado threat will increase through
the afternoon as storms form over the eastern part of the forecast
area.

Early this evening another round of rainfall will move in from the
southwest ahead of the closed low.  Depending on where these storms
are located with respect to the storm relative helicity will depend
on whether they will continue to have a threat for tornadoes.  The
current HREF data shows the better SRH is ahead of the rain
activity.  If this holds, the threat for tornadoes should be lower
with this round in the evening.

More rainfall may move through overnight as the closed low moves
through.  Since this round will be so close to the center of the
closed low, tornado development cannot be ruled out.  This round
should be out of the forecast area by sunrise Friday.

Friday the closed low will move north of the forecast area.  As it
departs there may be some rain activity wrapping around the back of
the closed low over the north part of the forecast area.  Since
models are usually too fast with the speed of closed lows, wouldn't
be surprised if rainfall chances linger around longer tomorrow than
currently forecast.

Friday night there may be a chance for rain over the far northern
part of the forecast area as the closed low departs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

This part of the forecast continues to be rather blan.  The upper
level pattern has no discernible features aside from the two
ridges over the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Because of
this weak upper level pattern, have low confidence in the chances
for rainfall that are forecast. The GEFS and ECMWF both have
rather low chances for rainfall too, which makes sense given the
weak upper level flow. Both of these ensembles actually have the
better chances for rainfall south of the forecast area.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the period as the ridge to
the west slowly builds onto the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main threat will be
the immediate storm activity near or over both sites. Moderate to
heavy rainfall is expected with these storms. Once the storms
clear there may be an hour or so of scattered to isolated storm
activity. After that IFR clouds move in, lasting into Friday
morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121730-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1130 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023 /1230 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

The entire area is in a slight to enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms today and into this evening. All modes of hazards will
be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. A tornado watch is in effect for the entire Tri-State Area
through the afternoon. Flash flooding from heavy rainfall will also
be possible, particularly in areas that received heavy rainfall
yesterday. A flood watch is in effect for all counties except for
Greeley and Wichita counties through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
606 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BENKELMAN               40.05N 101.54W
05/11/2023                   DUNDY              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VIDEO OF WATER RUNNING DOWN THE ROAD ABOUT 6
            TO 12 INCHES DEEP.

&&

KAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
608 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

COZ092-120045-
Cheyenne County CO-
608 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Cheyenne County in east central Colorado through 645 PM MDT...

At 608 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Cheyenne Wells, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Cheyenne Wells.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 136 and 157.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

Landspout tornadoes can form with a developing thunderstorm before
rain, hail, and even thunder is observed. Landspout tornadoes are not
usually associated with a wall cloud and are often difficult to
detect with weather radar.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for east central
Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3862 10257 3894 10239 3880 10210 3861 10228
      3861 10255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 210DEG 21KT 3864 10242

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Trigg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
609 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             2 WSW PAGE CITY         39.08N 101.19W
05/11/2023  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED ONE INCH HAIL.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
613 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             WINONA                  39.06N 101.24W
05/11/2023  E0.50 INCH       LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 0.25-0.5 INCH HAIL, NOT A
            LOT BUT SOME.

&&

CA

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