Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
547 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023

Tonight...a closed 500mb low pressure center along the Arizona/New
Mexico border around 00z this evening will slowly lift northeast
into southeast Colorado overnight. One batch of northeast to
southwest oriented showers and thunderstorms is expected along
and west of KS Highway 25 around 00z, continuing to impact nearly
the same areas while possibly drifting east toward KS Highway 25
through midnight. With PWAT values of 1-1.3 inches and training of
storms over the same areas we'll be watching for a flash flood
threat along with the severe weather threat. After midnight, this
wave slowly exits the area, only to be replaced by another batch
of showers/thunderstorms mainly impacting areas along/west of KS
Highway 25. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s
to around 60.

Thursday-Thursday night...the upper level low is forecast to lift
northeast, reaching the southwest corner of the forecast area during
the afternoon, continuing northeast toward the KS/NE border
overnight.

Current expectations are for another round of showers and
thunderstorms to into the southwest 1/2 of the area from the
southwest in the morning, continuing northeast across the remainder
of the area during the afternoon. Behind this line of storms will be
more hit and miss activity with a greater concentration under the
upper low itself. For the overnight hours, pops will be much lower
across much of the area, exception being across the far east and
west. In the west, they'll be getting wraparound showers and
increasing north/northwest winds on the backside of the storm.

All modes of severe weather remain possible along with
flooding/flash flooding during the day, especially for areas that
received heavy rainfall the past 24 to 48 hours.

High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to middle 70s.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

Friday-Friday night...the closed upper low continues to slowly move
northeast into central Nebraska during the day with with breezy to
windy west to northwest surface winds on the backside of the low.
For the overnight hours, the upper low continues slowly northeast
toward southeast South Dakota. We'll still have some gusty northwest
winds. It will be much more stable with wraparound showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm occurring during the day, quickly
decreasing in coverage overnight.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to middle 70s
with low temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday-Saturday night...the 500mb picture shows upper ridging over
the area, in between low pressure to our west and southwest as well
as over the northeastern corner of the country. Looking at 850-500mb
relative humidity and qpf, we're generally rather dry with a mid
level dry slot over the area during the day. I cant argue with some
patchy afternoon afternoons so will keep that in the forecast. For
the overnight hours, it appears that moisture availability increases
from the south and/or southwest supporting the NBM forecast where
higher pops are tied to the better moisture. QPF values are rather
low. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s to upper
70s with low temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023

Sunday...not a whole of change at 500mb. GEM/ECMWF 850-500mb
moisture increases and we currently have high chance pops across the
area. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to
upper 60s with low temperatures in the lower 40s to around 50.

Monday...overall moisture availability slowly decreases per
GFS/GEM/ECMWF. This is generally followed by lower pops from the
NBM. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 60s
with low temperatures in the lower to upper 40s.

Tuesday...presently, the forecast is for dry conditions which is
similar to a substantial dry slot from 850-500mb per the GFS. The
GEM/ECMWF models show much more moisture in the column as we're
in between low pressure to our northeast and ridging over the
west. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper
70s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to around 50.

Wednesday...the current forecast from the NBM is similar to where
the GFS has better moisture in the 850-500mb layer, favoring far
eastern Colorado for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023

Adverse aviation conditions associated with thunderstorms are
expected at both terminals this evening and overnight. Low stratus
may develop at both terminals at/around sunrise Thu morning..
perhaps lasting through mid to late morning. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will affect both terminals Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Aside from gusty/erratic winds in vicinity of any thunderstorms
this evening and overnight.. E to SE winds at 10-20 knots will
otherwise prevail, increasing to 20-30 knots within a few hours
after sunrise Thu morning.. as the MSLP-H85 height gradient
tightens on the east and northeast periphery of an intensifying
lee cyclone in southeast CO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
540 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-112345-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
540 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023 /640 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of the area until 9 PM MDT
this evening, mainly along and north of Interstate 70.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of the area
until 10 PM MDT this evening, mainly south of Interstate 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds
and an isolated tornado are possible on Thursday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via social media or
telephone.

Vincent

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N ECKLEY              40.12N 102.49W
05/10/2023  M51 MPH          YUMA               CO   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 11 N BETHUNE            39.46N 102.41W
05/10/2023  M53 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   MESONET

&&