Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

This mid-afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis overlay
revealed quite the impressive shortwave trough diving south within
the broader longwave trough pattern. The mid tropospheric potential
vorticity anomaly was centered across central Montana early in the
afternoon with impressive downstream upward vertical motion ahead of
the storm moving into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. This
enhanced region of lift continued to draw closer to the tri-state
region, and afternoon Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB imagery showed
a growing boundary layer cumulus field across northeastern Colorado
into far northwest Kansas and adjacent far southwest Nebraska.

The HRRR model seems to have a pretty good handle on this storm
system, and there has been run-to-run continuity of surface-based
shower and thunderstorm development across the northwest half of the
the GLD CWA after 21Z. Boundary layer moisture was limited, however
500/700mb temperatures of -20/0C along with surface temperatures
warming to the lower 70s resulted in deep layer, steep lapse rates
and SBCAPE increasing to around 500 to 700 J/kg despite surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 30s degF. Thus, the greatest severe
weather risk will be damaging straight line winds with the deepest
convective plume late afternoon/early this evening. The threat of 60-
65 mph peak wind gusts has been messaged given this latest forecast
thinking. As the strongest forcing for ascent moves across the tri-
state region this evening, the HRRR suggests the leading axis of
convection may form a loosely organized multi-cell line cluster as a
modest cold pool develops.

It will be difficult to differentiate an initial convective cold
pool from the actual synoptic cold front itself, but there may be a
bit of a separation between the two meteorological features.
Regardless, the synoptic cold front will be pushing south quickly
later on tonight. By that time, the axis of greatest lift and
subsequent numerous showers will push south of our region down into
southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. North-northwest winds
behind the synoptic cold front will likely be 25 to 35 mph sustained
with gusts well in excess of 40 mph at times...through at least the
first half of the day Friday as northwest Kansas and surrounding
region remains in the fairly tight MSLP gradient as the upper level
cyclone continues to move south-southeast down into New Mexico and
the Texas Panhandle.

Back to the precipitation forecast, the official forecast will
reflect a precipitation type changeover to a wet snow before ending
over the higher elevation areas of the GLD forecast area
(western/southwestern half, particularly in vicinity of the Palmer
Divide), but any snow before ending will likely be fleeting with
essentially no accumulation expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Over the weekend, the northwest flow pattern on the longwave scale
will continue across much of the western Great Plains and adjacent
Rockies as a deep gyre becomes established across the Great Lakes
region. Another deep trough will develop along the West Coast early
next week with another deep upper low likely to develop out of the
trough out west. The hemispheric scale regime looks quite blocky
with the tri-state region in between these large gyres with very
little in the way of sensible weather to affect the region. This
will likely result in fairly light winds for the most part and
temperatures quite seasonable with the warmest air mass shunted well
to the south through at least Tuesday. The latest models suggest the
Great Lakes region and West Coast gyres dissolving with more
westerly momentum crossing the Rockies mid to late next week. Mid
next week and beyond, the forecast becomes far more uncertain in
terms of temperature forecasting and (severe?) convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 505 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

For KGLD, VFR skies through 05z Friday along with a chance for a
VCTS. After 05z, a drop to MVFR ceilings along with 6sm in light
rain showers. Winds northwest 15-30kts. Periodic gusts 40-50kts
are also possible.

For KMCK, VFR skies with light rain and VCTS through 06z Friday,
then VFR/MVFR ceilings, with light showers through 11z. Winds
northwest 10-20kts. Gusts to 40kts after 06z Friday. LLWS 00z-01z
Friday 300@55kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WFO DDC/Umscheid
LONG TERM...WFO DDC/Umscheid
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-282100-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
249 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023 /349 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along an advancing
cold front this evening. These showers and thunderstorms will likely
be accompanied by very strong north winds. Expect gusty north winds
of 25 to 40 mph behind the front, and in vicinity of the heaviest
showers and thunderstorms wind gusts may exceed 60 mph, especially
along and north of Highway 34.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Strong northerly winds are expected to continue during the morning
and afternoon hours of Friday. Sustained winds ranging from 25 to 40
mph and gusts up to 50 mph are possible, strongest in eastern
Colorado and adjacent Kansas and Nebraska border counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via social media or
telephone.

Umscheid/Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
316 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

COZ091-KSZ013-272145-
Kit Carson County CO-Sherman KS-
316 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Kit
Carson and Sherman Counties through 345 PM MDT...

At 316 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong cold front 12
miles north of Ruleton, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Kit
Carson and Sherman Counties.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 0 and 25.
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 448 and 450.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3958 10206 3957 10205 3957 10169 3947 10140
      3914 10180 3922 10205 3951 10218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 300DEG 39KT 3953 10188

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
344 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

COZ091-092-KSZ001-013-014-027-028-272230-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-Wallace KS-Thomas KS-
Logan KS-Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
344 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

...Strong cold front will impact portions of eastern Cheyenne and
southeastern Kit Carson Counties in east central Colorado, Wallace
County in west central Kansas, south central Cheyenne and southern
Thomas Counties in northwestern Kansas, western Logan County in west
central Kansas and Sherman Counties in northwestern Kansas through
430 PM MDT/530 PM CDT/...

At 343 PM MDT/443 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong cold
front along a line extending from 12 miles north of Goodland to 3
miles east of Ruleton to 15 miles south of Burlington. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Brewster and Weskan.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 3 and 67.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 141 and 184.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 10083 3890 10115 3873 10144 3868 10243
      3920 10259 3936 10185 3962 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 316DEG 28KT 3953 10165 3932 10181 3907 10230

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
359 PM MDT THU APR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE GOODLAND          39.37N 101.70W
04/27/2023  M50 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

&&

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
414 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

COZ090-272315-
Yuma County-
414 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT YUMA COUNTY...

At 412 PM MDT, radar indicated scattered weak thunderstorms  located
along a line extending from 10 miles south of Highland Center to 10
miles east of Elba. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Sudden wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Yuma, Wray, Bonny Reservoir, Eckley, Abarr, Beecher Island and
Wauneta.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 208 and 210, and
between mile markers 212 and 262.

LAT...LON 4044 10251 4028 10210 3958 10215 3958 10277
      3961 10281 4034 10279 4044 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 306DEG 33KT 4038 10262 3992 10297

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
423 PM MDT THU APR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE YUMA              40.11N 102.72W
04/27/2023  M54 MPH          YUMA               CO   AWOS

&&

JN

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