Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
802 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

With temperatures dropping in tandem with sunset over the past
hour, heat indices have dropped below criteria. Have allowed the
Advisory to be canceled/expire as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

18Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated large H4 ridge
centered over the southern High Plains. Some semblance of an
embedded short wave trough was departing the CWA to the southeast.
At the surface, hot and humid airmass in place across the CWA with
a few remnant boundaries/convergent areas noted.

Main concern will be dangerously hot conditions this afternoon
followed by thunderstorm chances tonight and tomorrow.

Current heat advisory looks on track as afternoon dewpoints have
been slow to mix out, allowing for higher apparent temperatures to
occur further west than expected. Current forecast is on track so
do not expect any further changes to advisories.

For thunderstorms tonight, strong capping inversion was apparent
in morning soundings along with a deep layer of very dry air. This
will likely make any storm development unlikely away from the
higher terrain despite the presence of persistent convergence
zones as even if cap could be overcome, dry air entrainment would
likely keep storms from developing fully. Decent signal that area
of storms will move off of higher terrain and into CWA in the
00-04Z time period, although coverage should be very spotty. Could
see some impacts regardless of the rain amounts as pattern
favorable for strong wind gusts and a few lightning strikes.

For Wednesday, temperatures aloft cool a few degrees celsius as
weak cold front slides over area. With slightly cooler temps aloft
and more cloud cover, will see some minor relief from the heat but
not by much. Similar pattern for thunderstorms expected although
with slightly weaker capping storms will likely be possible in the
late afternoon into the evening. As was the case today, expect
spotty coverage with strong winds and lightning the main threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Essentially a persistence forecast. Long range guidance continues
to indicate that a robust upper level ridge.. situated over the
4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains.. will persist
through the upcoming weekend into next week. The location and
orientation of the ridge (per latest GFS/ECMWF guidance) suggest
that the mid-latitude westerlies (and any small amplitude waves
therein) will largely be relegated to higher latitudes (e.g. north
of I-80, Dakotas). While isolated/scattered diurnal convection may
develop on the lee slopes of the Colorado Front Range and adjacent
portions of the Palmer Divide during the late afternoon hours on
any given day.. synoptic environments characterized by weak
steering flow tend to confine/anchor such development in close
proximity to the mountains. With moderate high-based instability
and strong to extreme DCAPE over the region throughout this
period, downstream propagation into the Tri-State area cannot be
ruled out, mainly from the northwest and north (e.g. WY/SD and NE
Panhandle) -- in closer proximity to the westerlies -- where some
degree of convective organization and outflow consolidation are
[relatively] more likely to arise. With the above in mind, above
average temperatures and below average chances for precipitation
(convection) are anticipated throughout the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 456 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Both terminals will see VFR conditions through the forecast
period.

Winds for KGLD, west-southwest around 10kts through 11z
Wednesday, then northwest. By 19z, southeast around 10kts.

Winds for KMCK, light/variable through 06z Wednesday then west
around 10kts. By 12z light/variable becoming southeast at 10kts
by 17z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
759 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-270200-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
759 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 /859 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Between 8 PM and 11 PM MDT any thunderstorms that form may produce
wind gusts up to 70 MPH along with occasional cloud to ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Thunderstorms may develop again Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard.

A stretch of hot temperatures are expected across the Tri-State Area
through Friday. Heat index values above 100 degrees are forecast
east of a Stratton, NE to Colby and Leoti, KS line during this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
914 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

COZ091-KSZ013-260345-
Kit Carson County CO-Sherman KS-
914 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Kit
Carson and western Sherman Counties through 945 PM MDT...

At 914 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burlington, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kanorado around 930 PM MDT.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 0 and 6.
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 433 and 450.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 182 and 206, and near mile marker
211.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10216 3956 10193 3919 10192 3923 10236
      3957 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 268DEG 31KT 3931 10223

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Trigg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
928 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-260400-
Rawlins KS-Wallace KS-Thomas KS-Logan KS-Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
928 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Wallace County in
west central Kansas, Cheyenne and Thomas Counties in northwestern
Kansas, Logan County in west central Kansas, Rawlins and Sherman
Counties in northwestern Kansas through 1000 PM MDT/1100 PM CDT/...

At 927 PM MDT/1027 PM CDT/, strong thunderstorms were located along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Benkelman to 4 miles
southwest of Brewster to 7 miles east of Wallace. Movement was east
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Mesonet. 45-50 mph wind gusts were observed at the St.
         Francis and Goodland airports.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Brewster around 1030 PM CDT.
  Levant around 1045 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Russell Springs.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 1 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 10205 4000 10087 3872 10094 3870 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 274DEG 39KT 4000 10142 3933 10145 3894 10145

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Trigg

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