Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

The short term period calls for active weather with severe storms
and potential flooding.

The remainder of this afternoon, storms are expected to develop
across the area. The first round is already forming in Eastern
Colorado along a surface wind convergence boundary. These storms are
expected to continue to form and move east/southeast. Forms are then
forecasted to form during the mid afternoon in far Northwest Kansas
and Southwestern Nebraska along an area of surface wind convergence
and differential heating from earlier cloud cover. These storms will
also move east to southeast. Storms could be severe as effective
shear is around 40 to 50 kts with boundaries forming the storms.
However, the other severe parameters (1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE, 7 to
7.5 C/KM, and DCAPE around 1000 J/KG) are sufficient for severe
weather but a bit lacking. Recent cases with parameters like these
have produced marginally severe hail and wind gusts. Current
forecast reflects this with a few severe storms producing up to 1.5
inch hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph. If an isolated supercell can
develop, hail up to 2 inches would be possible. The severe threat
should diminish by 02-03Z.

Tonight, there could be a few showers and storms that develop
similar to recent night depending on how much lift and moisture
remain. If a storm did form, it would be unlikely to be severe with
limited instability available (MUCAPE around 1000 or less).
Otherwise, skies should clear across most of the area with lows
dropping into the 60's. Similar to recent days, fog is again
possible mainly for areas along and east of Highway 83.

Tomorrow, the daylight hours could see cloud cover linger across the
area, especially with a cold front lingering near the area. The
passage should occur later in the day and when it passes could
determine the storm chances for the area. Otherwise, the additional
cloud cover and progress of the cold front will help most of the
area stay in the 70's and 80's for high temperatures.

In regards to storms, there could be a few that form ahead of the
main batch along a lingering outflow or pre-frontal trough. These
would form in Eastern Colorado and move east and could be the areas
best chance for hail. However, instability is forecasted to be
lacking again with MLCAPE around 1500 or less so the hail threat may
be spotty if it occurs at all. The main batch is then forecasted to
move off the Front Range, potentially along with the cold front.
This batch is forecasted to form either a storm cluster, squall line
or MCS that moves southeast. This would favor counties generally
west of Highway 83 and south of US 34. With the uncertainty in mode
and how progressed the front will be, there is some uncertainty
where the greatest threats would be. The main threats with the
storms that move through would be flooding and damaging wind gusts.
Most deterministic and ensemble guidance has at least 2+ inches of
rain falling in the main part of the storm complex. However, fast
downstream motion is limiting the accumulations and flooding threat
as storms are forecasted to move 30+ kts. Even if the storms form a
fairly large complex or take advantage of the very high PWATs
(generally 1.5 inches or higher which is near to above the 90th
percentile), the storms wouldn't be over a spot long enough to
produce flooding unless the spot had poor drainage. That being said,
if the storms move slower or form and MCS that rotates around an
area, flooding chances would increase a fair amount.

Tomorrow night, with the complex moving out of the area, showers and
storms should end though the cloud cover may linger for a majority
of the night. Lows are forecasted to be cooler with a few locales
nearing 60 or less.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Showers may linger into Friday morning with MCS exiting to the
south. Afterwards, looking at dry conditions from Friday afternoon
into early next week as ridge builds over the Rockies from the
west. Temperatures will warm well into the 90s, with some pockets
of triple digits for Monday through Wednesday. Precipitation
chances will be slim to none, with perhaps an isolated shower or
thunderstorm in eastern Colorado towards the end of the period
provided the ridge axis moves a little further east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 505 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
Convection in the vicinity and/or over the terminal at taf
issuance looks to continue through maybe 02z before moving away
from the terminal. Winds generally from the southwest to southeast
at speeds under 12kts except around any showers/thunderstorms.
From 02z-06z VFR conditions are expected with winds generally from
the south around 10kts. From 07z-14z, sub VFR conditions are
possible in stratus and maybe some fog/br as winds become light
and variable. Updated forecasts may have to introduce sub VFR
conditions. After 15z, winds generally from the east, slowly
increasing about 12kts in the afternoon. Cant rule out a
shower/thunderstorm over 21z (if the HRRR model is correct) but
other models delay convection around the terminal until the end of
the taf period.

KMCK...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
Winds at taf issuance from the east around 10kts, becoming light
and variable from 04z-13z. After 14z, winds generally from the
east or east-northeast at speeds under 12kts. Regarding
precipitation chances, cant rule out a thunderstorm impacting the
terminal from taf issuance through 04z. Otherwise, it currently
looks like chances are rather low through the rest of the taf
period. Will have to watch for sub VFR cigs and maybe visibilities
in the 09z-15z timeframe.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
256 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-202100-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
256 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 /356 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire area through
10pm MT or 11pm CT. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the
primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Severe thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow afternoon with a
large hail threat initially. Going into the evening hours, the
severe threat will transition to damaging wind gusts with heavy rain
that could lead to flooding. Heavy rainfall and flooding is the
currently forecasted main threat.

The Tri-State Area sees heat indices reaching into the lower triple
digits in some locations on Sunday through Wednesday. Please
consider making preparations for multiple days of very hot
conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of hail or wind gusts above 50 mph would be appreciated!

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