Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
147 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Latest visible satellite shows cu developing in northeast Colorado
along what WPC is calling a warm front. Convective initiation
will continue in that area with storms moving east to the Kansas
border area by 23z. Convective initiation is also expected in
central Nebraska around that time along a surface trough, with
those storms moving southeast. A cluster of storms will likely
develop in the northeast forecast area as these two areas merge.
Initially, Colorado storms will be in a marginally favorable area
to become severe, with bulk shear values around 30 kts, but as
they move into Kansas deep layer shear will increase to around 40
kts. CIN should erode enough to tap into MLCAPE values approaching
3000 j/kg in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. In
addition, DCAPE values will be around 1500 j/kg. A few instances
of very large hail, up to baseball size, will be possible, as well
as wind gusts of up to 80 mph (HRRR showing 67 kts, HREF shows
50% probabilities of wind speeds in excess of 50 kts from Goodland
to McCook). There will be a low tornado risk prior to storm
merger, but confidence is rather low. Where the two areas merge
in the northeast forecast area, there will also be a risk for
flash flooding (HREF shows low probabilities of getting 3 inches
of rain in 3 hours from McCook to Oberlin and Norton between 00z
and 03z). The MCS should continue to move southeast and out of the
area between 04z and 06z. Overnight, areas of fog will likely
develop, especially south of Interstate 70, continuing into
Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will be in the 60s.

For Tuesday, the upper ridge over the southern Rockies will
strengthen with slightly rising heights over the central plains.
As a result, temperatures will warm and storm chances will
decrease. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s. There
will be low chances for an isolated afternoon or evening
thunderstorm with shortwave energy coming over the top of the
ridge, mainly in southwest Nebraska. There is a marginal risk that
those storms would be severe with favorable instability and shear
parameters in place.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will settle into the
Desert Southwest with a weak northwest flow over the central
plains. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the
90s. Precipitation chances remain on the low side on Wednesday
with proximity to the ridge, but increase again on Thursday with
the ridge further west, a shortwave coming through in the
northwest flow and a moist easterly low level flow through most of
the forecast area. Instability and shear profiles appear to be
favorable once again for a severe risk on Thursday afternoon or
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

For the long term period, slightly below average temperatures and
daily chances for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening
hours are forecasted.

Friday, with the wind shift associated with a cold front either
having moved through the area or moving through earlier in the day,
temperatures are forecasted to not be as hot as the previous days
with highs currently forecasted to be in the 80's. But a few areas
may still get to near 90 or reach 90 as the higher surface pressure
and colder air may be offset by a day. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms would be possible with a shortwave in northwest flow
or if a surface boundary lingers near the area.

Saturday and Sunday, slightly cooler temperatures are possible
depending on how much the upper low over the Great Lakes digs west
and south. The closer to the area it gets, the cooler the
temperatures will be with highs in the low 80's and maybe even some
70's. However, if the upper low stays further north and east, the
upper ridge over the rockies will likely have more influence warming
us back to near average temperatures and slightly lowering our storm
chances. Currently leaning slightly towards the cooler scenarios
based on 500mb spreads favoring a more expansive upper low albeit
the signal is not too strong at this time.

Going into next week, near average temperatures in the 90's are
forecasted as the upper ridge is favored to expand more to the east
and provide more influence over the area. With the ridge axis still
favored to be more to the west, we should avoid the hottest
temperatures and still have chances for afternoon/evening storms in
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

VFR expected through mid to late afternoon at both KGLD and KMCK.
After about 21z, storms will develop along a warm front in
Colorado as well as a surface trough in Nebraska. These storms
expected to impact both terminals through about 02-03z before
moving out. Gusty winds, reductions in visibility due to heavy
rainfall, and possible hail may occur at the terminals as the
storms roll through.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024

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