Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Morning)
 Issued at 114 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023

The main focus for today will be the increasing severe threat this
afternoon and into the early evening. A boundary is situated through
Nebraska and into northeast Colorado where some cumulus has begun to
develop along with additional storms already developing in northern
Nebraska. Dew points have been fairly steady thus far with upper 50s
to low 50s into Nebraska and upper 40s to low 50s back into
northeast Colorado. Water vapor imagery shows a wave ejecting
onto the plains which will be the focus for storm initiation.
Current thinking for today will be a couple of supercells
developing across northeast Colorado into SW Nebraska. My highest
confidence in thunderstorms affecting the Tri-State area is along
and north of a Yuma to Norton line. RAP has been suggesting a 4mb
over 3 hours. MUCAPE is forecast to approach 1500 j/kg along with
0-6 wind shear 45-55 knots which would support supercells. Storms
are anticipated to develop into a cluster and move off to the
east ending the severe threat for the area around 02Z.
Expectations are hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts up to 70 mph
with the strongest storms. A tornado can't be ruled out over
portions of Red Willow, Norton and Decatur county as the LLJ
increases this evening, but confidence in that is very low. A more
conditional threat for a supercell does lie along the I-70
corridor as some CAMS have been hinting at as well. Confidence
isn't the highest in that occurring due to concerns about the
cirrus impact instability.

 Overnight skies are anticipated to clear but will need to watch
for fog/stratus development due to the anticipated rainfall.
Monday looks to be fairly benign for the majority of the day was
temperatures again warm into the mid 70s to 80s across the area.
Winds will become easterly allowing moisture advection to work
into the area. A weak disturbance across the NW portion of the
area will allow a few showers and non severe storms to develop
during the evening and overnight hours. Some fog and low stratus
is possible into Tuesday morning as moisture increases.
Confidence is to low in coverage to introduce into the forecast
at this time.

Tuesday, another trough begins to develop across the western CONUS.
Moisture will be present ahead of it with a dryline setup near
the KS/CO border. A surface low will develop across southern
Colorado which lead to another afternoon and evening threat of
storms as some may be severe. A capping inversion, especially
across the east may help keep storms isolated in nature, but it
appears large hail and damaging winds will again be the primary
hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023

Wednesday...low pressure at the base of an upper level trough west
of the Continental Divide is forecast to become negatively tilted as
the base lifts northeast toward the four corners area by the end of
the day, continuing northeast toward the Palmer Divide/southeast
Colorado overnight. It appears that a weather disturbance lifts
northeast and into the area from northern Texas during the
afternoon, continuing northeast through the forecast area through
about midnight before exiting by 12z Thursday.

Plenty of moisture with PWAT values in the 1-1.25 inch range, lift
and instability to support a threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms. GFS hinting at a blowing dust threat per local
research findings with 0.5-1km wind speeds meeting roughly 45kt
criteria along the far southern zones with steep 0-2km lapse rates.
Otherwise, we're looking at breezy to windy conditions as southeast
to southerly winds gust up to 45 mph during the day with gusts up to
35 mph during the night.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
with low temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

Thursday...todays model solutions suggest the upper low is to lift
northeast toward the Nebraska panhandle during the day then into
southwest South Dakota overnight. Southerly winds gusting 30 to 40
mph are expected during the day, shifting to the northwest overnight.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as
disturbances eject from the approaching upper low, decreasing from
southwest to northeast overnight. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s to around 80
with low temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

Friday...the upper low gradually weakens with the forecast area
under some weak upper troughing. It appears that per 850-500mb
relative humidity, another weather disturbance emerges off the front
range and into northwest half of the area during the afternoon and
overnight hours, supporting a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s
to lower 80s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday...the 500mb pattern suggests a potential Omega block over
the area with low pressure over the southwest and upper ridging
centered north of Montana.

Todays GFS/GEM models show a large batch of moisture moving into the
area from the south after midnight with GFS precipitable water
values of 1 to 1.3 inches. This mornings NBM shows dry conditions
during the day with a slight chance to chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the night. High temperatures are forecast to be
in the upper 60s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the middle
40s to lower 50s.

Sunday...no change in the 500mb pattern when compared to Saturday.
The GFS maintains plenty of moisture over the area with PWAT values
of 1.1 to 1.3 inches. The ECMWF keeps the better moisture south of
the area. For now, wont make any changes to slight chance and low
chance pops. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s
to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023

The main concern for this TAF period will be severe thunderstorm
potential as a cold front moves across the area. Confidence is
relatively higher for KMCK to be affected by storms with large
hail and damaging winds the primary threat. I have added a tempo
group along with 50 knot winds as the RAP has been consistent with
a 4mb pressure rise over 3 hours. For KGLD, the storm threat is a
bit more conditional but still felt a tempo is warranted as some
recent CAMS are starting to trek a cluster of storms near the I-70
corridor. Winds will relax mid evening, will need to watch for fog
and stratus potential overnight as the boundary layer should be
saturated due to the rainfall.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Trigg

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
317 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023

KSZ001-002-NEZ079-072145-
Rawlins KS-Cheyenne KS-Dundy NE-
317 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Cheyenne,
northwestern Rawlins Counties in northwestern Kansas and southeastern
Dundy Counties in southwestern Nebraska through 345 PM MDT/445 PM
CDT/...

At 316 PM MDT/416 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Benkelman to 5 miles
south of St. Francis. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Cheyenne,
northwestern Rawlins Counties in northwestern Kansas and southeastern
Dundy Counties in southwestern Nebraska, including the following
locations... Wheeler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT/800 PM
CDT/ for northwestern Kansas...and southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 10132 4000 10132 4000 10122 3999 10118
      3957 10148 3973 10184 4012 10160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 308DEG 25KT 4007 10154 3969 10179

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DDT

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