Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
950 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Increased pops given latest trends with widely scattered storms
ongoing across southern portions of the CWA. A little uncertain if
this will maintain its intensity once the sun sets. An additional
intense supercell is ongoing in Logan County Colorado and is
slowly moving ESE. Recent CAMS do suggest this moving into Yuma
County/SW Nebraska following the Bunkers Right Motion of the ESE.
RAP soundings show a favorable environment for severe weather
with the potential for 2 inch hail and 70 mph winds around 06Z.
The other change to the forecast as a result of this anticipated
convection was the fog potential has backed off as guidance is
favoring more stratus. The relative best fog potential looks to
be along and west of the CO/KS border from 09-13Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

The remainder of this afternoon is forecasted to have most of the
area warm into the 90's with locations south and east of a line from
Tribune to Norton potentially reaching the upper 90's. Parts of
Eastern Colorado have been slower to warm with temperatures still in
the 70's. Models also underestimated the dewpoints in Eastern
Colorado which have still been in the mid 60's as of noon instead of
the mid to low 50's.

With the high amounts of moisture remaining, there is a threat for a
few storms this afternoon and evening with a surface boundary south
of the area and a potential upper shortwave moving through. However,
similar to yesterday, the big limiting factor will be potential
capping. The cap could be stronger over Western portions of the area
where temperatures may not warm as much as guidance was suggesting
due to early morning fog and higher moisture available over the
area. This will affect the potential for storms later this evening
for areas near and north of the Tri-State border. Guidance has
suggested that storms could form in Northeastern Colorado (ahead of
the shortwave and along the higher terrain) and move east across
northern portions of the Tri-State area. But if the cap remains in
place, any initial development would struggle to form and then
maintain itself into the area. Otherwise, it would be possible for a
few supercells to move across and produce damaging hail and winds
for counties generally along the Nebraska border. The other chance
area is for counties in Northwestern Kansas along and south of I-70
this afternoon and evening. Satellite shows a line of clouds along a
surface boundary around Southwestern Kansas and Southeastern
Colorado. If storms form along or ahead of the boundary, they may be
able to move northeast into parts of the Tri-State area. Given the
current position of the boundary, storms would likely need to fire
closer Pueblo given the mean motion to the northeast would mean
anything starting further south and east may miss the area.

Tonight, skies will remain partly cloudy and winds shift to out of
the east. With the easterly winds, fog will be possible depending on
how moist the area remains and how much clouds hinder cooling. Lows
will remain the 60's for most of the area. If fog does develop, may
need to watch for some patchy dense fog. Guidance is suggesting that
the favored area would be similar to last night, east of Highway 83.

For tomorrow, slightly cooler temperatures are forecasted with some
slight cold air advection aloft lowering our 850mb temperatures in
the 20's. Some additional cloud cover and lingering moist conditions
will also keep temperatures slightly cooler. How much cooler is a
bit uncertain given the lack of an air mass change. But temperatures
in the 80's and 90's remain likely with the warmer temperatures
generally east of Highway 83. If cooler air did advect in, most of
the area would stay in the 80's.

Storms are forecasted to move through the area again tomorrow
afternoon and evening as the upper trough that has been over the
west moves closer to the area. With the increased synoptic forcing
of both the upper trough and a surface low just south of the area,
higher chances and coverage for storms are expected. There could be
severe weather as well with large hail and damaging wind gusts given
MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/KG, effective shear around 45-50 kts and
DCAPE greater than 1200 J/KG. Storm should move from west to east
across the area as the trough moves through from west to east. The
hail threat will likely be highest with initial storm development in
Eastern Colorado and then slowly transition to more of a linear
storm mode and wind threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

12Z Friday the area is under southwesterly flow aloft with the upper
trough axis centered over the Four Corners region. This will
gradually move east, and bring shower and storm chances to the area.
The WPC has included the Tri-State Area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall on Friday. Afternoon high temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 70s to middle 80s with overnight low
temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Into Saturday, high pressure builds over the western CONUS while the
upper trough over the plains progresses eastward, leaving us under
northwesterly flow aloft. We'll see some continued storm chances as
the trough begins to exit the area. Temperatures continue in the
middle 70s to middle 80s for highs and middle 50s to lower 60s for
lows.

Drier weather is anticipated to start the week as the upper ridge
moves overhead. Weak disturbances within the flow however may bring
some spotty afternoon-evening showers/storms. Temperatures will
start to warm back up into the middle 80s to lower 90s Sunday, then
middle 80s to middle 90s Monday with overnight lows in the middle
50s to middle 60s.

A trough dipping south into the northern CONUS around Tuesday-
Wednesday, July 4th-5th may provide better focus for storms.
Temperatures climb into the middle 80s to middle 90s for the 4th and
upper 70s to lower 90s on Wednesday. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 50s to mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 942 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Complicated first few hours of this TAF period as a cluster of
severe storms is located across northeast Colorado. Guidance is
struggling with the evolution of these storms. Confidence as of
now is high enough to leave any thunder mention out for KGLD as
the relative better agreement is for KMCK to be impacted between
06 and 08Z. These storms will more than likely be severe with
large hail up to 2 inches and the potential for greater than 50
knot winds. I did leave the winds sub severe for this TAF period
as there has not been any wind reports thus far. The potential
still does exist for at least MVFR ceilings and visibilities due
to stratus and fog at KGLD, but the overall evolution of these
storms may throw a wrench into that potential. More showers and
storms are possible Thursday but coverage and location at this
time is to low to include in the TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Trigg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
916 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-300330-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
916 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 /1016 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 3am MT or 4am CT for
Yuma county in Colorado, Cheyenne, Rawlins counties in Kansas and
Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in Nebraska. Storms moving
southeast from northeast Colorado will move into the watch area with
hail up to two inches wind gusts up to 70 mph. Have a way to receive
warnings overnight if one is issued for your area.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along and east of a
Tribune to Oberlin line this evening with wind gusts up to 70 mph
and hail up to golf ball size.

Some fog may develop west of of the Kansas/Colorado state line
overnight. Locally dense fog is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorms will slowly increase in coverage Thursday afternoon,
becoming likely along and north of Interstate 70 Thursday night. A
few thunderstorms could become severe with large hail and damaging
winds. Excessive rainfall is possible along and north of the Kansas
Nebraska border.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through
Friday night. The primary hazards will be large hail, damaging
winds, and excessive rainfall which may produce flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to local law
enforcement or NWS Goodland.

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