Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
440 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a mostly sunny
to sunny mix, with most of the current cloud cover from diurnal
heating. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water vapor
imagery are showing an ridge over the central Rockies with activity
forming along the eastern side of the ridge. There is a frontal
boundary draped along the northern cwa and a surface ridge to the
west. Winds are northerly with stronger gusts near the CO border
around 15-20 mph. Temperatures are mainly in the 70s with a few spot
80s.

For the remainder of the afternoon into this evening, the main wx
concerns will again focus on the potential for strong to severe
storms. The threats will be hail initially, but the latest CAMs
showing convection to initiate around 00z Sunday near the CO border,
form into a line and move across the cwa through 06z. This will
shift threat to more wind as the evening progresses. Along with the
wind/hail threats, the possibility for heavy rainfall is there
again, posing a flash flooding threat.

Areas south of the Interstate have the most risk for tonight based
on the heavy rainfall received last night. The region will continue
to see PW values near an inch with dewpts in the 50s overnight.
Model soundings show narrow profiles hinting at heavy rainfall
potential. WPC continues to have Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
impacting portions of the region this weekend, with the entire cwa
under a Slight/Marginal risk for the Monday timeframe. Currently no
watches in effect for flooding potential as not all storms will
produce the heavy rainfall, limiting areal coverage, but Monday may
need one as the threat increases as well as how much areal coverage
of rain this weekend.

The passage of the storms threat tonight will usher in more cloud
cover/cooler temps going into Sunday and Monday as a surface ridge
builds south. The increased cloud cover will inhibit temps, while
dewpts remain high. The focus for storms on Sunday will mainly be
over west-southwest areas as winds go from northerly to more east-
southeast. This will persist into Monday as well, keeping the low
level moisture feeding into the region during this time. The
increased/persistent moisture will increase PWATs keeping the heavy
rainfall/flooding threat intact. Model guidance on Monday has upper
ridge breaking down over the south-central Plains, allow for a
shortwave to traverse the northern periphery into the cwa. This will
add further instability for storms in the afternoon/evening. The
threat persist during the day Tuesday as the aforementioned
shortwave lingers over the KS region providing a focus for storms
during the afternoon hours.

For temps, highs on Sunday will range widely with upper 60s west to
upper 70s east are expected. By Monday, cooler even more with 60s
along and west of Highway 83, with up to lower 70s east of there. By
next Tuesday, mid 60s west up to mid 70s east with warmest areas
east of Highway 83. Overnight lows will have ranges in the 50s for
most locales. Far west could see an isolated upper 40s, while
isolated near 60F possible east of Highway 83.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Another active pattern looks to be in store for the Tri-State area
in the long term.

The upper level pattern starts off with the subtropical jet
providing zonal flow across the southern CONUS and a low pressure
system over the Great Lakes. By Thursday, the jet stream slows a bit
and begins moving north, pushing a ridge into the region. That ridge
may be short lived as another low pressure system over the Pacific
Northwest moves east into the Northern Plains. It's around this
time, Thursday, that model guidance begins to vary wildly.

There will be chances of thunderstorms every night with the lowest
chance of precipitation being Wednesday afternoon. With PWATs
remaining around the 1 inch mark, training or slow moving storms
could create flooding issues. Shear is back on the menu, at least
more than what we have been receiving the past week. This could lead
to more organized storm systems that last longer.

Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal on Wednesday, and
possibly Thursday, depending on how quickly the ridge moves into the
area. The jet is expected to act as a barrier and keep warmer/normal
temperatures to our south. As the ridge moves over the Tri-State
area, temperatures closer to normal, in the 80s, are expected to
take over for the remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 429 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Storms are forecasted to impact each terminal this evening, the
potential does exist for a severe storm or two with strong winds
the primary hazard and torrential rainfall. Storms look to impact
KMCK around the start of the period moving in from the NNW and
KGLD from an hour or two later from a different cluster of storms
advancing east from Colorado. A tempo has been included for each
terminal for this potential. Guidance has been showing low stratus
developing around sunrise at each terminal as the storms move out
of the area. IFR conditions are possible but was not confidentin
the timing of the IFR conditions to include at this time so opted
to go with high end MVFR for now. The stratus should continue for
the most of the day before becoming VFR again by mid to late
afternoon. Fog is not currently expected at this time, but will
need to be monitored in case winds to weaken a bit more around
sunrise.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1058 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111700-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1058 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023 /1158 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast to move into
far eastern Colorado around 5 to 6 PM MDT, continuing east toward
Kansas Highway 27 while merging into a line or broken line of storms
through 8 PM MDT. The line of storms is then forecast to move
southeast and out of the area by midnight MDT (1 AM CDT). The primary
hazards will be wind gusts up to 65 mph and hail up to one inch in
diameter. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible and could create
flash flooding concerns. Areas that received heavy rainfall Friday
including those in Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties will have a
heightened threat for flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

There will be a continued heightened risk of flooding and flash
flooding Sunday and Monday nights as an organized complex of showers
and thunderstorms moves across the Tri-State area each overnight
period. The area of greatest concern is generally along and west of
Kansas Highway 27. Another area of concern is over parts of Wallace,
Greeley and Wichita counties where recent heavy rainfall has
occurred.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today. We would appreciate
reports of severe weather, heavy rainfall and flash flooding via
telephone and social media, but please do so safely.

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