Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
541 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023

At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
the CWA with west-southwesterly flow aloft being between an upper
air trough to the west and an upper air ridge to the east. Current
surface observations and satellite imagery shows some clouds moving
over areas along and south of I-70 with a cold front having passed
through the region. Forecast models show that an upper air low
develops over northeastern MT during the day causing the western
trough to orient in a way that will turn the CWA's upper air flow
northwesterly during the afternoon and remain that way through the
rest of the day. A shortwave disturbance is also projected to pass
through the flow over the CWA during the evening hours. At the
surface, models show a surface low is moving eastward across
southern NE during the day with another low developing in
southeastern CO. This second low moves eastward into KS allowing for
precipitation chances to begin in northeastern CO which will cause
some cooling creating a pseudo-surface high feature there and a
pretty good pressure gradient to develop across the CWA. Because of
this setup, a few things can be expected to happen. The low will
allow for rain chances pretty much for the entire CWA during the
afternoon and evening hours. Forecast models show a couple hundred
J/kg of MLCAPE along with around 40 kts of bulk shear in the far
eastern portions of the CWA supporting the potential for an isolated
thunderstorm or two during the evening. Potential hazards look to be
large hail and strong winds should a severe thunderstorm occur.
Current QPF values with these rain chances look to range between a
few hundredths to around a tenth or two in Yuma county.
Precipitation chances look to taper off overnight in the west ahead
of a cold front passage. Winds are expected to increase being this
cold front as well and with some models like the HRRR showing
potential gusts up to around 50 kts from the north particularly in
southern portions of the CWA. A High Wind Watch was issued in
collaboration with DDC due to these possible winds tonight and the
situation will be monitored to see if confidence increases enough to
issue a High Wind Warning for this event. Blowing dust has been
added to the forecast in areas with higher wind gusts. Not the
greatest confidence that these areas will see enough rainfall to
hinder the blowing dust potential, but not anticipating to have any
dust highlights at this time though will watch to see if that
changes. Near critical to locally critical fire weather can be also
expected within the region particularly near Cheyenne county in CO
with RH values down to the middle teens during the afternoon. Winds
west of the CO border look be more supportive of fire weather during
the afternoon compared to those to the east, but not enough
confidence to issue any fire highlights for right now. The frontal
passage will cause a sudden shift in wind direction, so it may cause
a dangerous situation if there is an ongoing wildfire. Daytime highs
look to be in the lower 60s to the middle 70s with overnight lows in
the lower 30s to lower 40s range.

On Thursday, model guidance forecasts the trough progressing
eastward and having its axis pass over the CWA during the evening as
the aforementioned low moves over the border between the Dakotas.
Models also have another shortwave disturbance pass over the CWA on
Thursday evening. At the surface, the CWA looks to see northwesterly
winds during the day gusting up to around 30 kts. Along with minimum
RH values down to the lower teens in the day, near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are possible for the CWA especially
in the southern half of the region. Will continue to monitor this in
case fire weather highlights are needed, but will hold off at this
time. Some slight chances for precipitation are seen in the very
southern portions of the CWA in the evening, but not the greatest
confidence at this time for this to occur. Thursday's daytime highs
look to range between the lower 50s and lower 60s with overnight
lows dropping down to between the middle 20s and middle 30s.

For Friday, models show that the CWA's upper air flow turns to a
northwesterly direction as the trough continues its eastward
progression with the back part moving over the CWA and a trailing
ridge moving over the west coast. Another surface low is projected
to develop in CO during the day and move southwestward allowing for
some slight light wintry precipitation chances for the northwestern
quadrant going into the night. There looks to be possible near
critical to critical fire weather concerns as well within the CWA
with minimum RH values in the middle teens to lower 20s and wind
gusts up to around 30-40 kts during the day. Will monitor this
situation going forward. The departing low looks to bring in some
cooler air into the region overnight as well. Daytime highs for
Friday look to be in the lower to upper 50s while overnight lows
expect to be near record lows for the following morning being in the
middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023

The weekend is expected to start off cool with northwest flow aloft
bringing in cooler air from Southwest Canada and the Pacific
Northwest. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid
50s for highs and in the upper 20s to lower 30s overnight. During
the evening hours to overnight, there is a low confidence chance for
moisture in the form of rain or a rain/snow mix to fall mainly west
of the Colorado border as a stationary front slides across the
Rockies over the Central High Plains. Little to no accumulation is
anticipated should the precipitation occur. On Sunday, the Tri-State
area is expected to begin warming up with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and overnight lows in the 30s. The area looks to remain
dry due to an area of high pressure near the surface sitting over
the eastern half of the NE/KS state line.

Monday looks like the next reasonable chance for rain, beginning
after midnight and continuing through the day as a weak shortwave
moves over the region. There remains some discrepancy between the
ECMWF and GFS in regards to timing of the shortwave. GFS is also
trending further north with a surface low forming over the Northern
Plains. The ECMWF remains a more favorable solution in terms of
widespread precipitation and potential for wrap around precipitation
as the low forms over SE Colorado. There could be a few weak storms
Monday afternoon should the capping inversion seen in model
soundings break. CAPE values are not very impressive with values
generally around 100 J/kg or less in the mixed layer. Surface CAPE
values are a little higher. Best chances for rain look to be in the
evening to overnight hours currently. Temperatures are forecast to
be in the 60s to around 70 degrees for highs and in the upper 30s to
lower 40s overnight.

Rain and possibly a few afternoon storms are possible throughout the
day on Tuesday. The best chance for storms is currently along and
south of I-70 across the Tri-State area. Across the two days, the
area could receive some much needed moisture. As things become
clearer with the track of the system, more details about possible
accumulations and severe potential will be further discussed.
Temperatures on Tuesday look to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for
highs and in the 30s to lower 40s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 532 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023

KGLD expects to see VFR conditions during the 12Z TAF period
beginning with north-northwesterly winds around 12 kts that become
northerly at 15G20 kts by 15Z before becoming easterly around 10
kts at 18Z. At 21Z, KGLD expects winds to become southeasterly
before a frontal passage at 01Z which will cause winds to become
northerly at 25G40 kts when chances for precipitation begin. By
06Z, KGLD winds expect to become north-northwesterly at 15G30 kts
as precipitation chances end with potential LLWS through the end
of the TAF period.

KMCK also sees VFR conditions throughout the 12Z TAF period
starting with some LLWS and north-northwesterly winds around 10
kts that become northerly at 13G20 kts by 15Z. By 21Z, KMCK sees
its winds become northeasterly around 9 kts before returning to
northerly around 15 kts at 01Z when a cold front approaches the
terminal. KMCK then expects winds behind this cold from to speed
up to 25G40 kts out of the north-northwest when precipitation
chances begin at 03Z. By 08Z, KMCK winds expect to become
northwesterly with precipitation chances ending.

Quite a difficult forecast due to the models not in complete
agreement with cold front timing as well how fast winds could get
behind the front, so will monitor for updates with the front and
amend TAF as needed. There are some slight chances for some
storms with the precipitation chances, but not enough confidence
to add to TAF at this moment.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     KSZ027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...076

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