Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
538 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Synoptic Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the
Intermountain West and central Rockies in this period, as an upper
level low.. situated over southeastern Oregon at 12Z this
morning.. meanders in place (today), then progresses eastward
across southern Idaho (Fri) and Wyoming (Fri night).

Today-Tonight: Diffluent flow aloft in the lee of the Rockies
will persist through tonight.. anchoring a broad lee cyclone over
eastern CO and extreme western KS. Primary forecast concern in
this period revolves around convective development/coverage this
afternoon and evening. Latest observational and mesoanalysis data
suggest that forcing this aft/eve will primarily be confined to
the lower-levels.. e.g. convergence invof a dryline extending
(roughly) from Imperial, NE to Oberlin and Quinter, KS at 19Z.
Considerable model-to-model and run-to-run variability persists
with regard to simulated reflectivity forecasts via convection
allowing guidance this aft/eve.. as one would expect in a pattern
characterized by weak synoptic forcing. Recent satellite, radar
and mesoanalysis trends suggest that convective development is
(relatively) more likely to occur along northern portions of the
dryline (invof McCook, Oberlin, Norton).. where moisture pooling
(850mb dewpoint maxima ~14-16C) will assist in the erosion of
lingering convective inhibition around and shortly after peak
heating (~22-23Z). Along and east of the dryline, where rich low-
level moisture (850mb dewpoints 12-16C) and steep (8-8.5 C/km)
mid-level lapse rates are yielding strong instability (2000-3000
J/kg MLCAPE) -- amidst a kinematic environment characterized by
backed low-level flow and 35-40 knots of effective deep layer
shear -- expect a potential for robust supercells capable of
producing all hazards, mainly in the 22-03Z time frame.

Fri-Fri night: Rich low-level moisture is progged to shift east
and north of the Tri-State area in this period.. as the
aforementioned lee cyclone shifts eastward from CO into western
KS. At this time, all available guidance suggests that dry
conditions will prevail.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023

This part of the forecast will be relatively tranquil.  The upper
level flow may be from the northwest or southwest, depending on
where the ridge axis of the strengthening upper level high
pressure will be. As the ridge continues to intensify mid next
week, there is a potential a weak short wave trough may form over
the forecast area around the periphery of the ridge.

Looking at the GEFS and ECMWF members, there is a very low
probability for rainfall to occur and most of that probability is
east of the forecast area.  Have low confidence these chances for
rainfall will materialize given the strengthening ridge.

Otherwise the end of next week could be breezy given the breezy low
level winds over the Central Plains.

Regarding fire weather potential, Saturday continues to looking
interesting.  As the relative humidity falls through the afternoon,
so does the northwest wind.  In similar past patterns, this has not
proven to be a critical fire weather day due to the winds not
lasting long enough before becoming lighter.

Temperatures will gradually warm to seasonal values after the cold
front moves through early Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Storms are moving through the region and are impacting KMCK. These
storms are not expected to impact the KGLD site directly. At KMCK
gusty winds, low ceilings and rain reducing visibility that are
impacting flight categories are expected to continue, as least
temporarily, until around 4Z. LLWS is also expected to start up
around 2Z. Models are showing different types of LLWS, but 35 kts
from the south-southeast at around 500 feet AGL seem to be the most
likely. Fog and/or low stratus is expected around 12Z. Visibility
currently looks to remain above 5SM, but cloud bases may drop to 700
feet AGL.

At KGLD, some gusty winds are still expected through most of the
night. An outflow boundary from the KMCK storms is expected to hit
KGLD around 2Z and will cause winds to come from the southeast.
Around 10Z, stratus will begin advecting into the area and could
lower cloud bases to 500 feet AGL by 12Z. Once the sun comes up, the
stratus will slowly begin to lift. VFR conditions should return by
15Z and 17Z for KGLD and KMCK respectively.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
308 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-222115-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
308 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 /408 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska until 9 PM MDT, 10 PM CDT this evening. All
thunderstorm hazards are possible this afternoon and evening
including large hail, winds in excess of 60 mph, localized flash
flooding, and a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated in
far eastern Colorado and far western Kansas Friday afternoon, mainly
along and west of a line from St. Francis to Tribune. Caution should
be used if burning outdoors.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible along and
west of Kansas Highway 25 Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
650 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     Rain             5 N Danbury             40.10N 100.40W
09/21/2023  M2.00 inch       Red Willow         NE   Mesonet

&&

JN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
654 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     Rain             6 WNW Culbertson        40.27N 100.93W
09/21/2023  M2.93 inch       Hitchcock          NE   Mesonet

            Corrects previous rain report from 6 WNW
            Culbertson. Storm Total...updated.

&&

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
818 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

KSZ002-003-220145-
Rawlins KS-Decatur KS-
818 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RAWLINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Rexford, or 19 miles southeast of Atwood, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Rawlins and southwestern Decatur Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3969 10046 3957 10065 3957 10090 3960 10095
      3987 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 220DEG 17KT 3961 10080

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

024

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