Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Goodland, KS

913 
WGUS73 KGLD 150015
FFSGLD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
615 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

COC125-150300-
/O.CON.KGLD.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-230915T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yuma CO-
615 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING 
FOR NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY...

At 615 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Yuma and Eckley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4029 10279 4031 10233 4012 10233 4011 10279
      4013 10279 4017 10279 4022 10279

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JN

905 
WGUS73 KGLD 150100
FFSGLD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
700 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

COC125-150110-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-230915T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yuma CO-
700 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4029 10279 4031 10233 4012 10233 4011 10279
      4013 10279 4017 10279 4022 10279

$$

MRC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
442 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

A mix of clouds and sunshine is present across the area this
afternoon with temperatures in the 70s. A few weak echoes are
showing up on radar over southeastern parts of the area, where some
slight PoPs are included in the forecast for the next few hours. A
shortwave trough and associated cold front will move through the
area later this afternoon into the evening and overnight hours
tonight. The front is currently situated through the Nebraska
Panhandle. Expectations are for the front to enter the far
northwestern part of the CWA by ~23-00Z before continuing south-
southeastward through the area into the evening-overnight with
showers/storms along with it. Severe weather is not anticipated;
however, instances of locally heavy rainfall are possible,
particularly across portions of northeast Colorado. Overnight lows
are forecast in the low to middle 50s. Expect the front should be
through the area by or shortly after sunrise Friday morning.

Tomorrow, cloudy skies continue with lingering chances for showers
and storms before tapering off north to south in the afternoon to
evening. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the middle 60s to
middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Friday Night... Threat for precipitation will rapidly decrease
during the evening hours as progressive shortwave trough rapidly
moves through the area and large scale subsidence overspreads
region. Weather hazards will be minimal as any lingering instability
will rapidly be used up leaving just a few showers during the
period. Largest concern will be how cold it can get behind the
system as skies clear after temperatures are held back by cloudy
skies during the day. While do not think airmass will be dry enough
to pose a frost/freeze risk, am leaning towards the cooler side of
the guidance as conditions seem pretty optimal for the coolest night
of the fall so far. Won't be shocked to see a few locations fall to
around 40 degrees before sunrise.

Otherwise the rest of the period will be dominated by building H5
ridge axis leading to dry and warming conditions, with highs in
the upper 80s returning by the start of the week. Some potential
exists for critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon
especially on Monday and Tuesday and will need to keep an eye on
wind forecast as it approaches. Ridge will begin to flatten and
break down on Tuesday afternoon as models begin to diverge quite a
bit with how pattern evolves after that. Not ready to buy into
any one solution at this point, but think the general trend will
be for slightly cooler temperatures and slightly higher than
normal chances for precipitation for the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 442 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

For KGLD, VFR conditions through about 03z Friday, then lowering
as cold front approaches with low ceilings and chances for rw/trw.
3-6sm in precipitation and ceilings ranging OVC007-025. Winds,
southeast 10-20kts, veering west 5-10kts by 06z Friday, then
north-northwest around 10kts from 11z onward.

For KMCK, VFR conditions expected through about 13z Friday, then
chances for rw/trw will increase. MVFR visibility and ceilings
meandering from BKN010-025. By 21z, VFR. Winds, southeast around
10kts through 06z Friday, then light/variable. By 13z, north
around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1150 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151800-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1150 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 /1250 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A cold front will enter far northeast Colorado late this afternoon
and begin to move through the area tonight. The best rain chances
will be with the front. Severe storms are not expected at this time.
However, locally heavy rainfall will be possible tonight in portions
of northeast Colorado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue on Friday as the front
moves through the remainder of the area. No severe storms are
anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

COZ091-142215-
Kit Carson County CO-
345 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

At 345 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Flagler, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Kit
Carson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3950 10316 3956 10290 3929 10290 3934 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 270DEG 11KT 3942 10305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
415 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

COZ090-142245-
Yuma County CO-
415 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM MDT...

At 415 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Eckley, or 19 miles south of Holyoke, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Yuma
County, including the following locations... Clarkville.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 262 and 270.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10219 4012 10237 4022 10266 4044 10263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 276DEG 11KT 4032 10244

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
448 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

COZ090-142315-
Yuma County CO-
448 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 448 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Eckley, or 14 miles northeast of Yuma, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Yuma
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 10261 4038 10254 4038 10229 4006 10242
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 292DEG 11KT 4023 10249

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

MRC