Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
251 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

The front has been slowly working it's way over the area today with
winds shifting to be out of the north behind it. Isolated to
scattered storms are beginning to develop along and behind a warm
front stretching from Norton County to Logan County and across
Wichita County as of 2 PM MDT. The line of storms that has been
lingering over portions of NE Colorado continues to slowly train
over the same areas west of Yuma County. As we continue into the
afternoon, more scattered storms are expected to develop across the
area with hazards of lightning, up to quarter sized hail, and
damaging winds up to 60 mph. Heavy rain is a big concern through the
overnight hours as these storms have plenty of moisture to utilize.
PWs range from 1.2-1.8" over the area with the higher amounts over
our Nebraska counties and the eastern half of our Kansas counties.
Any severe weather potential is expected to decrease after 9 PM
MDT/10 PM CDT. The scattered showers are expected to continue
overnight into Saturday morning. Should the current forecast pan
out, the Tri-State area could see 0.25-1" of rain through 6 AM MDT
tomorrow. With the low pressure center's placement south of US-40,
most of the storms for now are going to be located north of I-70. As
high pressure moves in over the North-Central High Plains, the low
will be pushed more to the east and the storms/showers will be able
to move further south. No changes have been made to the Flash Flood
Watch as the best chance for training storms/showers seems to be
over the Northwest corner of counties as the event unfolds. Lows
tonight are forecast to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tomorrow looks to be much cooler with highs mainly in the 70s. The
overnight showers look to taper off gradually to the south-southeast
during the early to mid-morning hours. Precipitation chances seem to
not look as good tomorrow afternoon/evening with how quickly the
surface high pressure erodes the lingering moisture. Weak
shortwaves traveling along an upper ridge could bring chances for
weak storms during the afternoon if the environment is able to
become unstable enough. QPF amount across the area could range
from 0-0.4", with the best chance for rain over the central
portions of the area and extending south. Overnight lows are
expected to be in the 50s.

On Sunday the area will be under northwest flow aloft as the upper
ridge sits over the Southwest CONUS into the Central Plains.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s during the afternoon
hours. Weak shortwaves will travel over the area along the ridge as
a cold front begins to push south over the Dakotas. There is a
slight chance for showers and storms to develop over Eastern
Colorado during the afternoon and evening hours. The best chance for
moisture in our area looks to be along and west of US-83. Overnight
lows are forecast to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

In the extended periods, upper level ridge will once again begin to
build over the region especially towards the end of the work week.
One last shortwave trough will bring some chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday, before ridge begins to amplify. The main
concern for the coming week will be how quickly afternoon
temperatures return to the 90s and just how dry airmass settling
over the area will be. While current data tends to support afternoon
humidites remaining above critical fire weather thresholds, will
need to keep an eye as to how overall airmass evolves through the
week. Otherwise except for Monday, expect dry conditions to prevail
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

TAFs are generally expected to be VFR during the period for both
terminals with potential for MVFR conditions during a heavy
shower or thunderstorm. A cold front is moving over the area
causing a shift in winds to the north with gusts to ~25 kts
possible over both KMCK and KGLD through ~3Z tonight. Storm and
shower chances over KGLD and KMCK are expected to increase during
the late afternoon with potential for storms moving within the
vicinity of the terminals ~23Z. Storm chances look to decrease
around 03Z; however, rain showers could continue through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ001-013.

CO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for COZ090-091.

NE...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NEZ079.

&&

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...KMK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1135 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261745-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1135 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 /1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region beginning
this afternoon and continuing through the night. Much of the area is
under a Marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon into the
evening  with large hail up to one inch and damaging wind gusts up
to 60 mph the primary hazards.

Localized flash flooding or flooding of poor drainage and low lying
areas is also possible with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and going through the night as the entire region sees a Marginal to
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall today. A Flood Watch is in effect
beginning this afternoon for counties that are along and west of
Kansas Highway 27 as well as along and north of Interstate 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A Flood Watch continues through Saturday morning for northwestern
portions of the Tri-State Area with chances for showers and
thunderstorms expected to continue for the entire Tri-State Area
throughout the day.

Daytime high temperatures on Saturday are expected to be
dramatically cooler ranging between the upper 60s to upper 70s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances are seen within the region on Sunday
and Monday. Please watch for future forecast updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please send any severe weather
reports you have to NWS Goodland.

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