Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
445 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Attempts at convective initiation in southwest Nebraska so far
have been a struggle. The environment is uncapped with MLCAPE up
to 2500 j/kg and effective shear values around 40 kts. However,
forcing is weak. Models seem to be keying on a surface convergence
boundary which is difficult to identify with winds generally
light and variable across the area. Nonetheless, if the boundary
can become better defined as it moves south this afternoon,
isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will develop.
The environment is supportive of severe storms capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds, it is only a question of
initiation and coverage. Storms will be moving quickly south and
exit the area by around 03/04z. The rest of the night will see
clear skies and lows in the 60s.

For Monday and Tuesday, the upper ridge over the Four Corners will
amplify and move to the southern Rockies. This will result in hot
conditions across the area. Highs both days will be in the upper
90s to lower 100s with heat indices up to 105. Would like to see
more widespread apparent temperatures of 105 before considering a
Heat Advisory and models may be a little warm given the recent
rainfall. There is a low chance of an overnight shower or
thunderstorm in eastern areas Sunday night if storms in the
Nebraska panhandle rotating around the ridge can survive that
long. At this time will just have silent pops. Otherwise,
expecting dry conditions across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

For the long term period, near to above average temperatures are
forecasted along with low chances for storms.

The pattern is largely dominated by an upper high that is forecasted
to be near the West-Central CONUS. With this over the Tri-State
area, temperatures should remain in the 90's if not 100's for the
period. An upper low is forecasted to move across the Northern CONUS
and deamplify the ridging over the center of the country. With this
laminar to northwest flow may develop and all for shortwaves to come
through and give chances for a few storms during the afternoon and
evening hours.

For the period, the main uncertainty looks to be the surface
dewpoints. The dewpoints have helped in keeping temperatures from
reaching their full heating potential the past week or so. This
time, we will have more of the upper ridge and high over the area so
it will be interesting to see if the area could rewarm to hit the
100's or not. If so, with dewpoints that high, heat indices could
easily exceed the mid 100's and heat advisories may be needed. All
of this is also dependent on how far south the upper lows come, but
current probabilities for more southerly track are very low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 445 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and
variable winds at taf issuance are forecast to establish a south
to southwesterly direction at speeds up to 10kts from 04z-21z.
After 22z, winds become light and variable. Will mention
thunderstorms near/over the terminal in the 00z-01z timeframe,
primary hazard being locally heavy rainfall which could drop
visibilities briefly below VFR category and produce some wind
gusts to 25 mph.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and
variable winds at taf issuance will establish a southwesterly
direction with speeds up to 10kts after 18z. Will have to keep a
thunderstorm mention going from taf issuance through 01z or so.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1036 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231645-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1036 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023 /1136 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from around 3 PM MDT
(4 PM CDT) through 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) for locations generally east
of a line from McCook, Nebraska, to Tribune, Kansas, with a Marginal
Risk further west. The primary hazards will be large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

The Tri-State Area has heat indices reaching into the triple digits
generally along and east of Kansas Highway 25 Monday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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