Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
219 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

As of 1:30 PM MDT, storms are beginning to develop over the
northwest corner of the Tri-State area and up into Southeast
Wyoming. So far the HRRR has had the best handle of the rapidly
developing storms. These storms are expected to be scattered storms
with supercells capable of producing all hazards. Storms are
expected to impact areas generally along and west of US-83; however,
the best likelihood for severe weather is expected along and west of
the KS Highway 27 corridor from Dundy County, Nebraska to Wallace
County, Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 9
PM MDT for those on either side of the Colorado border. While all
hazards are possible, the main ones of concern are up to 2" hail,
wind gusts up to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall. A couple of
tornadoes can't be ruled out mainly over Northeast Colorado, but
confidence is low to moderate at this time.

This environment is a bit different from the last few severe days as
it is essentially a High Shear-Low CAPE day. Low level wind shear is
out of the west to northwest at 30-60 kts, increasing throughout the
evening. MLCAPE leave a bit to be desired with values ranging from
500-~1000 J/kg. There is a bit of a capping inversion along and
east of the first row of counties in Kansas and Nebraska, which
could limit severe storms moving further east over the area.
Storms are expected to exit the Tri-State area completely between
midnight and sunrise tomorrow morning though the severe threat
should taper off during the evening hours. Overnight lows are
expected to be in the mid to upper 50s tonight.

Sunday is a bit quieter with little to no chance for precipitation
for the area. The upper ridge is expected to move further over the
area while a surface high moves over Kansas. Shortwave disturbances
are expected to help develop/strengthen a lee trough later in the
day. There may be an isolated As the disturbances move over, a
few showers and storms may be triggered; however, confidence is
very low at this time. Temperatures look to warm a bit more on
Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

On Monday we are expected to be under the ridge, but there will be
an upper shortwave move over from the Rockies during the afternoon
hours. For much of the day, the Tri-State area is expected to be dry
with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. During the
evening hours, scattered showers and storms are possible. The main
area of concern for any severe weather is mainly east of the
Colorado border. The overnight low is expected to be mainly in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Sprawling upper ridge will move from the Southern Plains at the
beginning of the period to the Desert Southwest by the end of the
period. Warmest temperatures will be under the ridge, so will
start the period with highs in the 90s both Tuesday and
Wednesday, then cooling off towards the end of the period to the
80s. Cold frontal timing a little faster compared to previous runs
and is moving through the forecast area during the day Thursday.
Daily thunderstorm chances continue through the entire period.
However, storms will be more scattered with proximity to the ridge
Tuesday and Wednesday, then increasing in coverage for Thursday
through Saturday as the area gets under northwest flow aloft. Deep
layer shear appears that it will be sufficient for a severe risk,
at or above 30 kts, the entire period. Front will also play a
role on Thursday for convective initiation and enhanced severe
threat, and is the same day deep layer shear is forecast to be
around 50 kts. Given daily rounds of storms and increasing
moisture, especially Thursday and beyond, flooding will also be a
potential hazard.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

KGLD: Ceilings should improve from MVFR to VFR over the next 2-3
hours as the low stratus continues to dissipate. There is
potential for scattered showers and storms to develop this
afternoon around ~20-23Z around the area with more showers and
storms moving near the terminal between 00Z and 05Z tonight. Winds
are expected to remain out of the southeast through the evening
at 10-15 kts with gusts to ~20 kts possible during the mid to late
afternoon. Overnight winds will shift to become more southerly at
5-10 kts through the end of the period.

KMCK: VFR conditions are anticipated through the end of the period
with winds out of the east to east-southeast at 5-10 kts through
~12Z Sunday. After 12Z, winds are expected to become more
southerly for the remainder of the period with speeds of 5-10 kts.
There is potential for showers and possibly storms to move within
the vicinity of the terminal during the late afternoon and evening
hours; however, confidence is too low at this time to include in
the TAFs.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK

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