Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Key Messages:

*  Severe storms noon to 8pm today. Hail, wind and tornadoes are
   all possible across nearly the entire forecast area. Storms
   move from southwest to northeast. Peak timeframe for tornadoes
   is 3-6pm.

*  High winds likely starting early Friday morning. Highest winds
   west of Highway 281, but entire area has good potential to see
   gusts 50-60 MPH.

*  Cold weekend. Subfreezing temperatures possible Saturday,
   Sunday and Monday nights. Sunday night is likely coldest, but
   not a widespread "hard-freeze."

Details:
As of late morning, surface observations show surface low just
centered around Oberlin, KS and slowly pushing northeast with
dryline/cold front extending to the south/southwest. Most of the
area remains cloudy, but ascent from the strong upper-level system
should help compensate for any lack of instability from daytime
heating. There are already some weak thunderstorms on radar, with
near-term models indicating potential for severe convection as
early as 1pm, with coverage/intensity increasing by 3-4pm.
Primary point of initiation is favored to be in the
Dawson/Phelps/Harlan county area, with storms will continue to
move northeast across the area through early evening.

Strong shear (effective bulk shear of 40-50kts) will favor
supercell structures, but CAMs do show a somewhat "messy" storm
mode. Regardless, these storms will be supportive of large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. The tornado environment appears to
be most favorable roughly in the 3-6pm timeframe as we see good
low level instability (0-3km CAPE 200-300j/kg) paired with locally
enhanced 0-1km helicity near the surface low. The ensemble mean
sigtor parameter from the 12Z HREF is in the 1-2 range, pretty
good clustering of updraft helicity nearby. While not a huge
"tornado outbreak" day, I'd personally be surprised if we don't
have at least a couple tornadoes this afternoon.

Severe storms move out of the area by 7-8pm, but showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms remain possible into the evening.
After a bit of a lull in the early overnight, additional rain will
move in from the northwest on the backside of the low. At this
same time, northwest winds should really start to ramp up. Expect
western portions of the area to already be seeing gusts around
60mph at sunrise on Friday with this spreading eastward through
the morning hours. The entire area is likely to see gusts over 50
MPH, but eastern portions are still less favored to meet high-wind
criteria (58 MPH), so the High Wind Warning has been kept just
for our counties from Highway 281 westward. Temperatures in the
40s and 50s will make for a truly unpleasant day.

We dry out on Saturday, and winds continue to decrease, but we
will remain cool with temperatures only reaching the low to mid
50s for most. Overnight lows could dip to near freezing in western
portions of the are Saturday night.

Sunday will be similar to Saturday, but with lighter wind. Sunday
night will be the coldest night of the week as high pressure
moves across. Western areas are likely to see freezing
temperatures, but this likely won't be a widespread hard freeze
for the entire area. We gradually warm up back to near normal by
the middle of next week. Our next system brings our next chance
for rain into the area Wednesday into next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

IFR ceilings should lift this afternoon, then thunderstorms (some
severe) expected to move through the region in the 20-01Z
timeframe.

Ceilings fall back to MVFR and substantially stronger winds arrive
on the back side of the low Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Rooks and Osborne
counties. Given the cloud cover, am not confident enough to expand
it any further eastward or northward. Regardless of exact RH
values, the southwest/west winds gusting up to 40 MPH will lead to
very high fire danger. Humidity comes up substantially tonight,
but the arrival of 50-60 MPH northwest gusts Friday morning would
cause issues with any firefighting efforts should any fires start
up today.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.

KS...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ005-006-
     017-018.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ017-018.

&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
131200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible over most of the outlook area
through approximately 8pm this evening The highest threat for
severe weather is approximately 3 to 7pm. Threats include
tornadoes, large hail up to the size of ping pong balls, and
damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH.

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
across portions of north central Kansas today. The worst
conditions are expected to be across Osborne and Rooks counties,
where a Red Flag warning is in effect until 7 PM.

Late tonight, strong northwest winds will begin to spread across
the outlook area, and a High Wind Warning is in effect for areas
along and west of Highway 281. Please see the High Wind Warning
message for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Northwest winds gusting 45 to 60 MPH continue across the entire
outlook area into Friday afternoon. The High Wind Warning will be
remains effect through 7 PM Friday western portions of the outlook
area that are most likely to see gusts near 60 MPH.

Sunday night into Monday morning near to below freezing
temperatures are expected across the local area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of hail, damaging wind gusts, funnel clouds or
tornadoes are always appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

NEZ060-121800-
Dawson NE-
1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY
THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1236 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eustis, or 19 miles east of Curtis, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Dawson
County, including the following locations... Farnam.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 215 and 227.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 10000 4086 9986 4070 9997 4070 10022
      4089 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 201DEG 34KT 4062 10014

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wesely

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
116 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

NEZ060-121845-
Dawson NE-
116 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM CDT...

At 115 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Willow Island, or 16 miles west of Lexington, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cozad and Willow Island around 120 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 213 and 227.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for south central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 10019 4105 10012 4105 9979 4071 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 195DEG 23KT 4082 10005

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Wesely

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
121 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

NEZ072-121900-
Gosper NE-
121 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GOSPER COUNTy THROUGH 200 PM
CDT...

At 120 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Arapahoe, or 25 miles west of Holdrege, moving north
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Elwood around 140 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Smithfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for south central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10000 4044 9998 4070 9998 4070 9971
      4069 9965 4055 9964 4035 9974 4035 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 195DEG 22KT 4041 9987

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Wesely