Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
106 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Key Messages:

*  There is a relatively short window for severe storms this
   afternoon and early evening, mainly across portions of
   Nebraska. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are all possible.

*  Possibly some lingering showers in our north on Saturday and
   some weak t-storms on Sunday, but many spots will stay dry
   through the weekend.

*  Not "guaranteed" dry, but rain chances are pretty low Monday
   through Wednesday.

*  Temperatures trend warmer through the week, and thunderstorm
   chances return Thursday into Friday.

Details:

The main focus on this forecast is the thunderstorm threat for
today. We should continue to see scattered thunderstorms percolate
across portions of the area this morning as vertically stacked
low pressure system slowly moves eastward. Early in the day,
storms should be mostly non-severe with only small hail and
localized gusty winds.

By early in the afternoon (possibly as early as 1-2pm), storms
are expected to intensify with improving lapse rates and
instability. Deep layer shear is not outstanding, but would be
sufficient for supercells producing hail and damaging wind. More
importantly, low-level shear and instability would support a
tornado threat with any discrete storms that develop near or ahead
of the surface low. Several tornadoes were observed in western KS
yesterday in a somewhat similar environment.

The severe risk today favors areas north of I-80, primarily in
the 1-7pm timeframe. Some storms may linger into the evening, but
the main threat should quickly shift to our east by then.

Some showers or weak thunderstorms remain possible Saturday and
Sunday in the weak cold advection as the low pushes to our east.
The upper pattern remains "messy" as we head into early next week.
We cannot totally rule out a few showers on just about any day,
but ensembles strongly favor below-normal rain totals.
Temperatures start off near-normal early in the week, gradually
warming through the week as ridging builds over the western CONUS.
Slightly better chances for rain and thunderstorms return
Thursday into next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

CIGS have improved over the past couple of hours and expect
prevailing MVFR CIGS for the remainder of the afternoon into
evening hours. Continue to expect mostly cloudy skies, however,
but with bases closer to 5KFT as indicated in model soundings. In
addition, as the lapse rates steepen, expect the possibility for a
few TSRAs to develop near the terminals, and have a VCTS mention
at both terminals for several hours either side of 13/00Z.
Thereafter...winds will shift overnight as the upper level low
tracks east...becoming west northwest by daybreak Saturday. While
models are hinting at some fog development towards daybreak as
well, directional component of the wind is unfavorable, and just
reintroduced MVFR CIGS after 13/06Z...with a few wrap around
showers and a VCSH mention as well after 13/11Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
416 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
131200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
416 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms remain possible this morning, mainly over
portions of central Nebraska. Severe weather is not expected
during the morning, but a few strong storms with gusty winds and
small hail are possible.

Some storms are expected to become severe this afternoon as they
continue to move to the northeast. Hail to the size of golf balls,
isolated tornadoes, and wind gusts over 60 MPH are possible. The
main threat area is northeast of a line from Loup City to Grand
Island to Geneva, and the main timeframe for severe storms is 1pm
to 7pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There are low-end chances for a few non-severe thunderstorms
Sunday evening.

After a mostly dry week, chances for thunderstorms increase again
Thursday and Thursday night.

The

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early
evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1229 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

NEZ039-046-121800-
Valley NE-Sherman NE-
1229 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Valley
and northwestern Sherman Counties through 100 PM CDT...

At 1228 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loup City, or 23 miles southwest of Ord, moving northwest at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Arcadia around 1240 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 9921 4128 9899 4121 9908 4124 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 146DEG 39KT 4129 9910

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
133 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

NEZ039-121900-
Valley NE-
133 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Valley
County through 200 PM CDT...

At 132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ord, moving northwest at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Fort Hartsuff State Park around 145 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9899 4161 9882 4150 9894 4156 9921
      4174 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 130DEG 37KT 4160 9898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rossi