Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Key Messages:

* Severe storms likely late this afternoon and evening. This is
  the major concern for at least the next few days. Thunderstorms
  are expected to move generally eastward across the outlook area,
  mainly from 5PM to 11PM tonight. The entire outlook area is
  currently under a Slight Risk of severe storms from SPC (level 2
  of 5). Thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail to near
  the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts to 60-70 mph.
  Isolated tornados may also be possible.

* A bit of a break from storms is expected Monday, at least during
  the daytime hours, before a series of rain/thunderstorms return
  to the area Tuesday through at least Saturday. Chances for
  thunderstorms during the week will be greatest Thursday, and SPC
  continues to show a 15 percent severe area in our west on the
  latest Day 4-8 Outlook.

* Continued rainfall chances across much of the outlook area
  Tuesday through Saturday due to several disturbances in the
  upper level flow. The latest 7-day QPF from SPC continues to
  show a widespread 1-2" likely across the entire forecast area,
  so most, if not all, the area should see some beneficial rain
  over the next week.

* Temperatures remain consistent within the forecast. Highs Monday
  will be in the 80s across the entire area and Tuesday through
  Saturday highs will be in the 70s and 80s, with lows in the 50s
  nearly every night.

A few high clouds are moving across the area this afternoon, but
of greater concern are the thunderstorms firing up to the west and
northwest of the outlook area along a shortwave trough. As
predicted, these are at least starting out with relatively high
bases. Leaned heavily toward short term CAM guidance for PoPs
this evening, and those seem to be initiating pretty well this
afternoon. With ample 0-6 km shear and 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
across the forecast area, expect thunderstorm activity to
increase as the shortwave moves across the area this afternoon and
evening. Hail and gusty winds will be the main threats with these
storms, with hail to near the size of golf balls and thunderstorm
wind gusts to 60-70 mph expected. Also cannot rule out a few
isolated tornadoes, but with the higher cloud bases and not great
0-1 km shear we should reiterate these are expected to be
isolated. All these parameters will be "better" for severe storms
further east toward far eastern Nebraska and Iowa. The greatest
timeframe for severe storms will be around 5PM to 11PM...after
midnight much of the area should remain storm free.

Monday:
Models continue to predict that Monday will be dry during the
daytime hours and relatively cloud free under surface high
pressure. With that, I nudged high temperatures a couple of
degrees above forecast guidance, which served to really continue
the going temperature forecast, which was for highs in the low to
mid-80s across the entire area. Monday night - Tuesday morning
will be the introduction of the first of several shortwaves
helping to bring in showers and thunderstorms to the
area...currently these do not look to be severe. High temperatures
will be in the 70s north to the 80s south, and these highs will be
much the same through Saturday.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
The area will be under general southwest flow aloft with shortwave
disturbances amplifying precipitation chances. Wednesday, an upper
low over the desert Southwest will move northeast into Colorado
Wednesday evening, bringing our area increased chances for
precipitation associated with yet another shortwave and more
southerly flow aloft.

Thursday:
As the upper low moves north into the Nebraska panhandle, there
will be an increase chance of thunderstorms, particularly across
western portions of the forecast area...and SPC has introduced a
15% chance of severe storms during that timeframe.

Friday-Saturday:
Model guidance differs on how quickly the upper low shifts north
of the area, so stuck with the blend especially this far out.
Suffice to say there will be chances of showers/thunderstorms both
days, but how great a chance is tough to say at this point.

Models indicate a pretty strong area of high pressure moving into
the area by next Sunday, so if that persists, that may be the
beginning of some drier weather moving into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

TSRA is expected to impact the terminals in the next 2 to 3 hours.
Low ceilings are possible beginning around 06z and continuing
until around 15z but confidence is not high enough to include at
this time. Northeast to north winds will continue through much of
the overnight period then become northwesterly by 12z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Schuldt

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