Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
409 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

 Key Messages:

* A small shot for severe thunderstorms this evening for primarily
  a couple counties in the forecast area.

* Rain chances tonight and through Saturday.

* Much cooler for Saturday, but warming back to above normal for
  the next work-week.

Tonight:
The front as of 3:45pm is currently from approximately Geneva
southwest to Hays, KS. The warm side of the front is seeing
temperatures/highs in the 80s with southerly winds. North of the
front temps have been in the 50s to 60s with breezy north winds.
The front made it further southward than originally expected
earlier this morning before stalling out from around York, NE to
Plainville, KS. As of the last hour the front has begun
southeastward motion again and the window for thunderstorms in our
area is growing smaller. The counties that are the primary
concern include Thayer, Jewell and Mitchell counties. The front
will continue to track southeast and the latest high-res guidance
indicates that thunderstorms will fire in the 5-7pm time frame
with it developing and quickly moving to the southeast out of our
forecast area quickly.

The main upper trough will continue to approach the area and
precipitation will move in from the southwest across the area
tonight and as the upper trough swings through tomorrow - showers
with a small chance for a thunderstorm will be possible. This is
the best chance for rain for the forecast area this weekend.

Temps on Saturday will be much cooler with highs in the 40s to low
50s a significant change from Thursday. Temps on Saturday night
will approach freezing with the current forecast dropping below
freezing on Sunday night.

Temps will warm for Sunday and some drier air causing near
critical fire conditions.

Temps will warm back up for the start of the work week with highs
in the 70s and 80s as weak ridging moves across the area ahead of
the next main trough. This next trough will bring a few systems
and various precipitation chances for the remainder of the work-
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

The cold front has moved through both terminals and the winds will
be northerly throughout the remainder of the forecast period. A
few low clouds have developed near the terminals and are just
above VFR criteria at 3,500ft. Feel that VFR conditions will
prevail through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds have
decreased in speed, but will remain breezy through the overnight
hours. Rain chances increase during the late evening and overnight
hours, but the primary concern will be showers and not
thunderstorms with the lack of instability. Shower chances will
persist through the remainder of the forecast. VFR ceilings will
become MVFR and IFR during the overnight hours.

Conditions look to improve towards mid-day Saturday at or just
after this forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
339 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
152045-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
339 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The cold front will continue to progress southeastward late this
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and ahead of this front this evening. The primary area of concern
will be for an area southeast of a line from Geneva, NE to
Osborne, KS. With the focus being on Thayer, Jewell and Mitchell
counties. Timing will be primarly between 6pm and 10pm. Once the
storms move out of the forecast area, the severe threat should
exit as well.

Large hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts
up to 70 mph are the main concerns.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will move in from the west during
the late evening and overnight hours. These storms are not
expected to be strong or severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Near critical fire weather conditions may return to portions of
the area Sunday and into the start of next week.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday evening and early
overnight for portions of the area. Strong storms are not
anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail or damaging winds
associated with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and
evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright