Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

Key Messages:

* Severe thunderstorms possible across much of south central
  Nebraska and north central Kansas this afternoon into tonight.
  Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main threats.

* Thunderstorms possible again next week, especially Tuesday night
  through next Friday.

* High temperatures Saturday through next Friday will generally
  range from the upper 70s to upper 80s.

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over the western part of the country with another
upper low/trough over the Northern Midwest/southern Canada. Showers
and thunderstorms are developing across western, northern, and
eastern Nebraska. A lee surface trough is present across western
Nebraska and eastern Colorado and will move eastward during the
evening and overnight hours. High temperatures today will mostly be
in the 70s with some 80s across portions of southern Nebraska and
northern Kansas. Dewpoint temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s across most of the area by this evening with
CAPE values of generally 1000 to 2500 J/kg. The NAM12 is showing
surface CAPE values of over 3000 J/kg across parts of the area this
evening. Zero to six km bulk shear values will be 40 to 45 kts
according to the NAM12 with zero to three km bulk shear possibly
reaching 30 kts by this evening. Mid-level lapse rates will
generally be 7 to 8 degrees C/km. These conditions will allow for a
chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening for
much of the area. Some of the models are showing storms initially
developing across southern Nebraska late this afternoon/early this
evening and moving northeastward. Large hail and severe wind gusts
will be the main threats with these storms. Storms are expected to
develop this evening into tonight across western Nebraska associated
with a shortwave. This area of storms will move either northeast or
east tonight over portions of central and possibly south central
Nebraska. Large hail and severe wind gusts will again be possible.
Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 50s.

Saturday through Tuesday...

The trough across the western portion of the country will connect
with the trough over the Upper Midwest on Saturday. Remaining
showers and storms will push out of the area Saturday morning
followed by westerly surface winds. The westerly winds along with
clearing skies will contribute to temperatures warming up into
mostly the 80s on Saturday. A weak cold front will move into the
area Saturday night resulting in lows from the mid 40s to upper 50s.
Sunday will be mostly dry with highs ranging from the upper 70s to
near 90. Rain and storms will be possible Monday and Tuesday as
shortwaves in the upper flow move over Nebraska and Kansas. High
temperatures for both days will be in the upper 70s to the upper
80s. Low temperatures will generally range from the mid 40s to upper
50s.

Wednesday through Friday...

An upper trough will be over the western part of the country on
Wednesday and will move eastward through next Friday. Rain and storm
chances increase beginning Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as an
upper disturbance ahead of the upper trough passes over the region.
Rain and storm chances will continue to be possible through next
Friday as upper lift over the area increases due to the approaching
trough. High temperatures will generally range from the upper 70s to
upper 80s. Low temperatures will mostly be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

TSRA will likely impact KEAR around 02z and may later impact KGRI.
Low ceilings are expected to impact both terminals around 06z and
will continue until at least 15z. Patchy fog is expected beginning
around 10z. Winds will be somewhat variable but will generally be
out of the east and southeast then may turn to the north around
07z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
400 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
062100-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
400 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
tonight across much of south central Nebraska and portions of
Phillips, Smith, and Rooks Counties in north central Kansas. There
is a marginal risk of severe weather that includes most of the
rest of the area except Mitchell County in Kansas. The main
threats with these storms will be hail up to the size of golfballs
and wind gusts up to around 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Between Saturday and Thursday, there are several, on-and-off
chances for thunderstorms within various portions of the outlook
area. Please note that many of these chances will likely
fluctuate up or down in later forecasts, perhaps significantly,
as this will be a rather complex weather pattern with regard to
pinning down thunderstorm chances with much confidence, especially
more than a day or two in advance.

That being said, the least-favored time frame for thunderstorm
activity, especially of the widespread variety, should focus
between Saturday and Monday, and with an overall-low risk of
severe storms with any activity that might occur during that
time. Thereafter, a general increase in thunderstorm chances and
coverage is then expected Tuesday through Thursday, as a larger-
scale low pressure system gradually approaches from the west.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of hail, wind
gusts over 50 MPH, or any other possible severe weather that
might occur to the National Weather Service.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1007 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

NEZ061-060345-
Buffalo NE-
1007 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Buffalo
County through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1007 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kearney, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kearney around 1015 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Gibbon.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 269 and 272.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4085 9872 4083 9872 4070 9890 4066 9915
      4066 9916 4096 9901
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 217DEG 19KT 4066 9906

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mangels

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1008 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     HAIL             5 S KEARNEY             40.62N 99.08W
05/05/2023  E1.00 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   STORM CHASER

            VIDEO OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL SOUTH OF KEARNEY
            FROM TWITTER. EXACT LOCATION ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

MANGELS