Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Key Messages:

* Increasingly likely that complex of thunderstorms will impact at
  least portions of south central Nebraska this morning, some of
  which could be strong to severe. Another round of thunderstorms
  possible tonight.

* One more day of oppressive heat possible for far S portions of
  the forecast area today, then minor relief for Sunday and Monday.
  The rest of the area should see more more significant relief.

* Dangerous heat and humidity returns for at least southern areas
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

* Ensembles suggest stronger cold front and potentially more
  organized rain chances towards Thursday and Friday.

Forecast Details:
After an active Friday evening in which a few supercells produced
very large hail up to golf ball to baseball size, at least
portions of south central Nebraska could be in for an active
morning. A cluster of thunderstorms has organized over the Neb
Sandhills early this morning, and it seems probable this activity
will maintain intensity, perhaps even strengthen, as it moves SE
into instability axis with MUCAPEs in excess of 3000 J/kg per
latest SPC mesoanalysis. NErly low level winds beneath 35-45kt
NWrly winds at H5 is resulting in about 40kt of effective shear
and straight hodographs. Neither shear or instability is progged
to significantly weaken prior to storms arriving into NW CWA
around 10Z, and Tri-Cities around 12Z. In fact, with the higher
MUCAPEs in place directly over central Neb., may actually see
storms intensify with time this morning. This activity is
expected to be elevated in nature, at least initially, but could
envision gusty winds being able to penetrate low level stable
layer should the uptick in intensity occur, and may even see a
transition to more sfc based over far E/SE CWA as the cluster
exits towards late AM. Also, wouldn't be surprised to see
supercell structures within S/SW or anchor side of the complex and
pose a risk for large hail given aforementioned CAPE/shear
parameter space. Last eve's hi-res guidance was all over the place
in terms of tstm timing/placement/coverage, but 00Z HRRR and
NSSLWRF seem to have best handle on this MCS and are in pretty
good agreement it will be E/SE of the CWA by around midday.

All of the AM clouds and convection casts quite a bit of
uncertainty on high temps later today, though would expect some
subsidence behind departing convection to aid in clearing and
warming temps eventually this aftn. 06Z HRRR and 00Z EC still warm
far S zones to near triple digits, and these areas should have the
best chc to remain dry this morning. Thus, would expect the
interface between hot temps to the S and high Tds to the N to
setup somewhere in this area and result in peak heat indices once
again AOA 105F. Thus, no changes planned to the existing
Excessive Heat Warning. Will probably have a fairly sharp decr in
temps towards and especially N of the state line, so despite the
highest dew points in a W-E band over south central NE (with usual
aid from evapotranspiration from mature crops), will probably not
need to expand the warning northward as peak HIs N of Hwy 36
remain mostly in the 90s.

The next chc for organized convection looks to come at some point
late this eve and into the overnight as tstms once again develop
over the higher terrain of E CO/WY within low level upslope flow,
then shift E. 06Z HRRR and 00Z HREF are in broad agreement of this
overall scenario, but differ w/r/t timing/coverage/placement of
most intense activity. Seems timing in our CWA would probably be
post-sunset, perhaps even closer to midnight. Pool of moderate
instability (thanks to substantial low level moisture beneath mid
level lapse rates >7.5 C/km) and effective deep layer shear
30-40kt suggest this activity could again be strong to severe.
Some models are actually stronger with LLJ tonight (compared to
early this morning) so will need to keep an eye on
model/observational trends to see if another organized severe
threat can develop.

Sun to Tue time frame looks quieter, and generally cooler, at
least central and N zones. S zones will see SOME relief, but def
not as much as Neb zones. PoPs return late Sun night into Mon AM,
with yet another round poss Mon night into Tue AM, mainly for N
half, or so, of CWA. Not too sure of details, but looks to be
generally same type of pattern where storms develop over WY/Black
Hills region during aftn/eve, then shift SE overnight and weaken
with time.

Dangerous heat looks to return to at least S half/third of CWA for
Tue/Wed. Already have peak heat indices in the grids around 105F,
and wouldn't be surprised if these edge higher and further N as we
get closer. Will probably need another heat advisory for at least
KS zones each aftn.

Finally, latest ensembles suggest decent chc for stronger cold
front and perhaps more organized pcpn chcs towards late in the
week. Latest EPS is calling for much more pleasant highs in the
80s for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to impact the TAF sites
through around 14Z, during which time gusts of 30-50 kts are
likely and visibility may drop as low as 1 1/2SM. After 14Z this
activity should have moved E/SE of the terminals.

Behind this activity, conditions will be much calmer and VFR
conditions will return from late morning into the afternoon with
NE to E winds around 10-15 kt. Hi-res guidance suggests another
round of thunderstorm chances moving in from the west late
Saturday evening into the overnight hours, but such low confidence
regarding impact to the terminals to preclude a VCTS mention for
now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Hickford

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
409 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
301200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
409 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to move
from northwest to southeast across portions of south central
Nebraska this morning. Severe weather is becoming increasingly
likely with this activity, especially for areas along and north of
Highway 6. Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 MPH, and large hail up
to golf ball size are the main threats. Activity should largely
shift east of the forecast area by midday.

This afternoon, dangerous heat index values around 105 degrees
will again be possible across Rooks, Osborne, and Mitchell
Counties in north central Kansas, where an Excessive Heat Warning
remains in effect.

Late this evening and overnight, another round of thunderstorms
will be possible to move in from the west. Some of this activity
could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail
the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Off and on, mostly nighttime chances for thunderstorms continue
next week.

Heat will remain a concern for areas along and south of the state
line through the first half of next week. Heat index values could
potentially top 100 degrees each day Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of large hail
greater than penny size, along with wind gusts over 50 MPH and any
associated wind damage.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Thies

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WNW Aurora            40.87N 98.03W
07/29/2023  M60 MPH          Hamilton           NE   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Manager measured with anemometer
            on top of vehicle.

&&

JMBW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
651 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     Flood            3 N North Loup          41.53N 98.78W
07/29/2023                   Valley             NE   Emergency Mngr

            Reports of water running over Highway 11
            north of North Loup due to heavy rain. Rain
            gauge reports in the area of 2.7 to 3 inches
            of rain.

&&

JMBW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 N Pauline             40.46N 98.34W
07/29/2023  E60 MPH          Adams              NE   NWS Employee

&&

AEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
712 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sutton                  40.61N 97.86W
07/29/2023                   Clay               NE   Emergency Mngr

            Reports of a shed on a car on main street
            and multiple power poles down. Additionally
            a Building roof is blocking main street.

&&

JMBW