Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
350 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Key Messages:

* Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms through
  Monday morning. A few of these may end up being strong to
  severe, with large hail and strong wind gusts possible.

* Smoke and haze is expected this evening into Monday morning.

* Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday
  morning, and periodic chances return Wednesday evening through
  Saturday.

* Heat index values are expected to reach 100+ degrees across
  portions of north central Kansas Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

Currently a broad upper level trough associated with high pressure
over the desert Southwest is positioned across the western CONUS,
while an upper low over the Great Lakes extends a trough south
across much of the eastern CONUS. For south central Nebraska and
north central Kansas, northwestern upper flow prevails with a
shortwave trough moving across the area this evening and tonight.
Forecasting thunderstorms tonight has been tricky as the few
storms initiating this afternoon are not handled well at all,
including by the convective allowing models. Since they are
initiating this early, we can probably expect at least a chance of
thunderstorms this evening and tonight, especially as the
shortwave moves through and with the low-level jet picking up
after dark. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging wind gusts being the main threats. The latest CAMs are,
however, now picking up an area of storms moving across the area
overnight and early Monday, potentially impacting the tri- cities
around sunrise and possibly into the morning commute. As far as
the smoke forecast, expecting an increase in smoke tonight into
early Monday morning, diminishing near the surface but likely
still hazy aloft afterward.

Monday and Tuesday...
After the chance of showers and thunderstorms through mid-morning
Monday, the rest of the day should remain dry. As the upper ridge
moves into the Plains, temperatures will ramp up over portions of
the central and southern Plains, with heat indices across north
central Kansas over 100 degrees. The heat will persist over north
central Kansas through Tuesday with heat indices over 100 degrees,
potentially approaching 105 degrees. Overnight Monday night into
Tuesday morning, chances of showers and thunderstorms return to
mainly northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Some of
these thunderstorms may also be severe, although current model
output indicates the bulk of this activity will be just to our
north and east. Where this area of storms does set up may end up
being a flooding concern as well, with models indicating very
heavy rainfall as this system moves through...again, currently
anticipating this to just miss to the north and east but any
southward trend would put it over our area, so feel it is prudent
to mention.

Wednesday through Sunday... A broad upper trough passing just to
the north mid to late week will bring periodic shower and
thunderstorm chances to the area Wednesday evening through
Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s throughout.
To end the weekend, upper level ridging over the western CONUS
with an upper level trough east puts our area again under
northwesterly flow aloft, indicating another warm day with highs
in the 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

The mid-level clouds and showers are sliding south with the front
currently. The models are dry for the TAF sites this afternoon,
but I am worried about some isolated redevelopment in the sunny
areas with afternoon heating. I did not have high enough
confidence to put a mention of precip in TAFs this afternoon.
Tomorrow morning the models form another round of isolated SHRA
east, so put a VCSH in for GRI to cover this for now. The winds
will basically go from westerly to easterly during the TAF period
as the front sags south today and a SFC high over Canada moves SE
into the Dakotas tomorrow morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
406 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
172115-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
406 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through this
evening, mainly across north central Kansas.

From late this afternoon into this evening, while a very spotty,
isolated storm cannot be ruled out in Nebraska portions of the
outlook area, the main focus for additional storms will be within
north central Kansas. Some of these storms have produced hail up
to around golf ball size or slightly larger and could produce wind
gusts up to 60 MPH. That being said, this round of storms should
push off to the south of our forecast area by late this evening.

There is a chance of another round of thunderstorms after midnight
and into the morning hours Monday, mainly from the tri-cities area
north and east. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with
this round either, again with large hail and damaging winds being the
main threats. If these develop, these storms are expected to move
out of the area and/or diminish in intensity by around 7 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, thunderstorm chances
return to mainly counties north-through-east of the Nebraska Tri
Cities. There is a Marginal to Slight Risk that a few of these
storms could be severe, capable of producing large hail and/or
damaging winds.

Between Tuesday evening and Friday night, there are intermittent
chances for thunderstorms across various portions of the outlook
area. It is too early to confidently assess the potential for
possible severe storms during this time frame.

In addition to the various upcoming thunderstorm chances, on
Monday and Tuesday afternoons, heat index values are forecast to
climb to at least 100 degrees mainly within portions of north
central Kansas, and particularly Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell
counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size along with any
damaging wind gusts that might occur through this evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
328 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSZ006-007-019-162100-
Jewell KS-Smith KS-Mitchell KS-
328 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central
Mitchell, Jewell and east central Smith Counties through 400 PM
CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mankato to 6 miles south of Esbon.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Mankato around 335 PM CDT.
  Montrose around 345 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Formoso and
Jewell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3977 9861 3995 9824 3985 9793 3960 9793
      3948 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 301DEG 26KT 3986 9819 3973 9848

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Pfannkuch

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
329 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     Hail             2 N Cedar               39.68N 98.94W
07/16/2023  M0.75 inch       Smith              KS   Trained Spotter

            Penny hail, heavy rain and winds of
            40-45mph.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
354 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSZ006-007-018-019-162130-
Jewell KS-Smith KS-Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-
354 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Mitchell, southwestern Jewell, southeastern Smith and northeastern
Osborne Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bellaire to near Downs. Movement was east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Downs, Cawker City, Glen Elder, Lebanon, Portis, Esbon and Ionia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3985 9839 3950 9824 3948 9866 3974 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 275DEG 16KT 3974 9871 3953 9860

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Pfannkuch

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