Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
649 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Key Messages:

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for central Nebraska and much of south
  central Nebraska until 10 pm.

* Severe thunderstorms possible from this afternoon into tonight
  across the forecast area. Severe thunderstorms will again be
  possible on Tuesday across much of Nebraska.

* Heat indexes near or above 100 degrees across north central
  Kansas and portions of far southern Nebraska Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

* Temperatures cooling slightly toward the end of the week with
  chances of showers and thunderstorms each day across at least a
  portion of the forecast area.

Today and tonight...

An upper level low/trough is centered over Canada with a portion of
the upper trough extending south to the Gulf Coast. South to
southwest surface winds are across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures across the area are
expected to heat up into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Relatively high
CAPE values will be across the area late this afternoon with 0 to 6
km wind shear values generally between 45 and 50 knots. Mid-level
lapse rates will generally be 7 to 8 degrees C/km. A weak cold front
will also be pushing southward into Nebraska this evening which will
provide an additional source of lift. These conditions will result
in a chance of severe weather across the area this afternoon and
continuing into tonight. The greatest threat of severe weather will
be from around 5 pm to midnight as storms develop across central
Nebraska late this afternoon and early this evening and move
southward. Large hail up to around golfball size and strong,
damaging winds to around 70 mph are the greatest threats. The models
differ on how much of the area is going to be impacted by the
storms. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 60s to
near 70 degrees.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

The previously mentioned upper trough will move northeastward on
Tuesday. Surface winds will mostly be out of the southeast with
temperatures heating up into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat index
values will range from the lower 90s to over 100 degrees on Tuesday
afternoon. A surface high with an accompanying cold front will be
present across northern Nebraska by Tuesday evening. This front will
gradually move into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Very high
surface CAPE values are expected tomorrow afternoon into the evening
hours according to the NAM12 with 0 to 6 km wind shear values
generally 45 to 50 knots. A limiting factor in severe storm
development tomorrow will be the fairly low lapse rates. Any storms
that develop tomorrow will likely become severe due to the above
mentioned conditions. Storm development is most likely tomorrow
along and just ahead of the cold front. Low temperatures tomorrow
night will depend on the strength and timing of the front and will
likely range from the lower 60s to lower 70s.

Wednesday through next Monday...

The cold front will continue to move across the area on Wednesday
with high temperatures mostly in the 80s across central and south
central Nebraska and mostly in the 90s across north central Kansas.
Heat index values will be near and over 100 degrees across north
central Kansas and portions of far southern Nebraska. The area will
be on the underside of a trough on Wednesday with an upper
disturbance possibly moving overhead. This may result in
thunderstorms developing and moving across the area. Conditions on
Thursday will be similar to those on Wednesday. Temperatures may
cool a bit on Friday with highs mostly in the 80s across the
forecast area. Additional disturbances may pass overhead providing
more rain and storm chances through the end of the week. Fairly
similar temperatures will continue through the weekend into early
next week with highs in the 80s. Rain and storm chances will
continue through the end of the forecast period. Low temperatures
will range from the upper 50s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Main concern for this TAF period comes right off the bat, as a
line of scattered thunderstorms continues to push southeast toward
the terminal sites. The primary impact of any storm that directly
moves over the site looks to be variable gusty winds. Once this
activity passes, currently have the rest of the TAF period dry,
but will have to keep an eye on activity well to the NW to see if
it holds together in a few hours. Light/variable winds are
expected through the remainder of the overnight-early morning
hours, then turning back to the SSE during the day on Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...ADP

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