Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

* Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase this
  afternoon although coverage will still be spotty. Greatest
  coverage from around Loup City, Hastings, Mankato eastward.

* Warm afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s will
  continue this afternoon and again on Friday. Temperatures will
  begin to fall on Saturday and high temperatures for most areas
  by Sunday and Monday should be back down into the 70s.

* No widespread severe weather events are expected at this time.
  However, we can not rule out isolated strong thunderstorms
  during the afternoon/evening hours through Saturday. We continue
  to lack upper level flow and decent wind shear, which will
  greatly limit the severe weather potential.

* The wind will continue to be light at generally less than 10 MPH
  through Saturday outside of some gusts possible in and around
  thunderstorms. The next decent breezy day will be Sunday with
  north winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting to over 25 mph.

Today and Tonight...
We'll see a backdoor front slide into our forecast area from the
east today that will turn our winds to easterly. There is not
really much of a temperature gradient expected with this front,
but rather it's more of a convergence zone with higher dewpoints
and then scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms within and near
the general area of convergence. Thunderstorms will still be
spotty, but should be most concentrated along and east of a Loup
City, to Hastings, to Mankato, Kansas line. Overall coverage area
of precipitation will probably still be less than 50 percent, but
higher than the last few days and some isolated areas could even
pick up appreciable rainfall amounts around a half inch. Severe
weather is generally not expected due to weak wind shear but a few
storms could briefly pulse up and become strong with gusty winds
and small hail. Thunderstorms will be most likely between 2 PM and
10 PM.

Friday...
We will continue to see that convergence zone with higher
dewpoints centered over our forecast area, but maybe more over our
western forecast area with lower dewpoints starting to work into
eastern zones depending on which model you look at. In addition,
we could see a piece of the upper short wave over the western
United States break off and move into our moisture rich
convergence zone giving us continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Upper flow and wind shear will remain weak thus
not anticipating much severe weather, but given decent
instability we could certainly see a few strong storms or even
a brief pulse severe storm or two.

Saturday...
Best chance for Rain! A cold front will swing south across the
forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours bringing what
currently looks like a fairly widespread and possibly appreciable
precipitation event. Again this is not a good severe weather set
up, but can not rule out a few strong to briefly marginally severe
storms.

Sunday and Monday...
Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the Saturday cold front
resulting in cooler high temperatures in the 70s and after some
possible Sunday morning showers, generally drier conditions are
then expected. There will finally be a nice northerly breeze at
15-20 mph gusting over 25 mph on Sunday that along with lower
dewpoints should make it feel rather nice and less sticky.

Tuesday and Wednesday...
Thunderstorm chances return as the next upper level storm system
is expected to enter the plains bringing at this time just some
low end precipitation chances and a slight warm up ahead of the
next system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at both
terminals. Light and variable winds continue early this afternoon,
becoming easterly to southeasterly around mid to late afternoon
and into the evening. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible in the vicinity of both terminals this afternoon and
evening, accompanied by gusty winds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wekesser

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
336 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
090845-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
336 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight,
although coverage area will be rather spotty. Greatest
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be from around Loup City,
to Hastings, to Mankato, Kansas and points eastward. Widespread
severe weather is not expected, but a few strong storms with
gusty winds and small hail can not be ruled out. The most likely
window for thunderstorms will be from 2 PM through 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Increasing chances for thunderstorms are expected Friday into
Saturday with chances climbing to around or over 50 percent
Friday afternoon and as high as 60 to 80 percent by Saturday
afternoon and night. Although widespread severe weather is not
expected at this time, a few strong storms will be possible Friday
and Saturday. The strongest storms will have the potential of
producing gusty winds and small hail.

Additional periodic small chances for thunderstorms will be
possible Sunday through Wednesday across portions of the outlook
area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Wesely

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
246 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

NEZ039-082015-
Valley NE-
246 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Valley
County through 315 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ord, moving southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Valley
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 9898 4161 9893 4155 9899 4163 9907
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 046DEG 4KT 4162 9899

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Wekesser

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