Tornado Warning 31, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
221 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023/
/Severe Weather Today/

An episode of significant severe weather will materialize this
afternoon. North and Central Texas residents should be prepared
for large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. In addition,
there will be a heightened flash flooding threat late this
afternoon across eastern portions of Central Texas and East Texas.

A cluster of elevated sub-severe storms continues moving eastward
across North Texas, leading to a continued threat for hail and
gusty winds along and north of the warm front. The warm front
generally resides along the I-20 corridor, evident by the
southerly component of the winds south of the front and
easterly/northeasterly winds north of the front. Although the
front is generally along the I-20 corridor, much of the region
continues to experience a fairly good amount of SBCIN in the wake
of earlier showers and storms as well as the dense cloud cover in
place.

As we approach the afternoon, the initial area to watch for rapid
thunderstorm development will be along/south of I20 and west of
US-281. Visible imagery is depicting partial clearing is ongoing
with temperatures approaching 80s degrees. With afternoon heating
and MLCAPE expected to exceed 2500 J/Kg, any thunderstorm that
develops will be capable of producing large hail that may approach
or exceed baseball size. Given that the storms south of the warm
front are likely to be surface based, not only will there be a
significant hail threat, but the tornado threat will also increase
as the storms move eastward. Surface southeasterly winds veering
with height will result in classic right-turning hodographs, with
a strong tornado or two not out of the question this
afternoon/early evening.

Additional convective development is expected along the true
front as it moves southward late this afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular with a large
to very large hail threat continuing. Tornadoes and damaging
winds will continue to pose a threat south of the I-20 corridor,
generally across southern portions of North Texas and into Central
Texas.

As the supercells move eastward, the expectation is for upscale
growth into a complex of thunderstorms. There will be a
transition to mainly a damaging wind threat along with wind-driven
large hail. Sufficient 0-3km shear will be in place to mention
the potential for quick tornadoes along any north/south oriented
segment of the line of storms. As if that wasn't enough,
torrential rainfall may lead to flash flooding, especially across
eastern portions of Central Texas and East Texas. Antecedent
conditions will lead to rapid runoff of any precipitation, and
with latest HREF PMM depicting isolated areas of 5" of rain, it's
important to remain vigilant of flooded areas this evening and
tonight. If you come up on any flooded roads, TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN!

The bulk of the convection should be exiting our region by around
midnight. In doing so, the threat for severe weather will shift
away from the entire region. A few elevated storms cannot be ruled
out as far North as North Texas around/after midnight. Although
some small hail cannot be ruled out, the overall severe weather
threat will remain low.

Dry and cooler air will filter in tomorrow, keeping temperatures
in the upper 60s to mid 70s throughout the region. Winds will be
out of the northwest generally between 20-25. Thursday night will
be fairly cool across the region with upper 40s to lower 50s
expected.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Onward/

After today's weather maker and tomorrow's brief reprieve,
another threat for strong to severe storms will present itself on
Friday. A potent shortwave trough will be digging southeastward
through the day on Friday, leading to rapid northward mass
response. Enough moisture should be in place for thunderstorms to
develop along the leading edge of a rapidly moving cold front
through the afternoon. At this time, the main threat Friday
afternoon appears to be large hail and damaging winds.

Given the parent mid-level low will lag behind the main surface
feature, a few additional showers and storms will be early
Saturday morning. The overall severe weather threat will remain
low given a lack of appreciable instability/shear.

Saturday will remain fairly cool with highs in the 60s areawide
and northerly winds throughout much of the day.

A warm-up trend will commence on Sunday as mid-level ridging
moves overhead. Temperatures as we start the new work-week will
range from the mid 70s/80s to widespread mid 80s by Wednesday.
Southerly winds will persist each day, generally between 15-20 mph
with no precipitation expected through at least the latter half
of next week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns: Significant impacts ongoing across North and Central
Texas through the afternoon, lingering across Central Texas
through tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across North and Central
Texas with significant disruptions continuing areawide. Severe
convection with tops approaching FL390 are expected this
afternoon through this evening. The greatest threat for severe
convection will be along and south of the I-20 corridor, which
includes all North and Central Texas TAF sites.

In addition to the rain and thunderstorm potential, low CIGs (IFR)
and patchy fog will persist through around 02Z Thursday. A cold
front will likely move through North Texas closer to 05Z, leading
to northerly winds and continued IFR through much of the night.
For Waco, the cold front is likely to be closer to 06-07Z and
northwesterly winds overnight.

Post-frontal stratus is expected tomorrow, generally around 018 at
DFW Metroplex TAF sites and 012 in Waco. Overall rain chances will
remain low tomorrow within the D10 airspace but a few isolated
showers or storms cannot be ruled out the first half of the day
across BYP and CQY. VFR should return by tomorrow afternoon across
North and Central Texas

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  72  53  81  55 /  90   5   0  40  70
Waco                58  74  52  81  55 /  90   5   0  30  70
Paris               57  69  49  76  56 /  90  30   0  20  70
Denton              53  70  48  79  51 /  80  10   0  40  70
McKinney            57  69  49  78  54 /  90  20   0  30  70
Dallas              59  72  53  80  55 /  90  10   0  40  70
Terrell             58  72  50  79  56 / 100  20   0  30  70
Corsicana           60  74  53  81  58 / 100  20   0  30  70
Temple              57  76  53  84  55 /  80   5   0  30  70
Mineral Wells       53  72  50  83  51 /  60   5   0  40  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
218 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271145-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
218 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Storms will continue across North and Central Texas today. The
greatest severe weather threat has shifted south of the I-20
corridor but a few severe storms cannot be ruled out along/north of
I-20. Large hail will be the most widespread threat with damaging
winds and tornadoes possible south of I-20.

Additionally, locally heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding,
especially across eastern Central Texas and East Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An isolated storm or two will be possible Thursday morning across
eastern portions of North and Central Texas. Cannot rule out small
hail with the strongest storms.

Another cold front arrives late Friday with scattered thunderstorms
possible along and ahead of the front. Some severe weather will be
possible, mainly across Central Texas with hail and damaging winds as
the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected on Wednesday.

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