Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

An outflow boundary is currently moving into the Metroplex from
the north/northeast, moving south/southwest, with scattered
showers and storms developing along and behind the boundary. Non-
convective wind gusts of 30-40 mph are being observed behind the
outflow even without any storms nearby. Low-level winds aloft are
generally out of the WNW, which is shunting a majority of the
precip east after it develops. Storms this evening have been good
rain-producers with several locations receiving upwards of 2" of
rain over a 2 hour period with minor flooding possible. Meager
deep-layer shear is supporting unorganized clusters of storms with
low severe potential, but there is enough instability that a few
robust updrafts are capable of becoming borderline severe with
wind and hail being the threats. Expect the outflow boundary and
scattered showers and storms to continue moving south this evening
with storm coverage waning a few hours after sunset with the loss
of heating.

Further south across Central Texas, precip has been much harder to
come by this afternoon as supercells across the Pecos Valley have
been an energy sink. A few scattered showers and storms will
remain possible, but the coverage of this activity will also wane
with the loss of heating this evening. A resurgence of activity
is possible in the early morning hours as a MCS moves into the
region from West Texas. We have adjusted PoPs according to our
recent thinking, but tomorrow's activity still remains uncertain
and will be largely dependent on the overnight MCS and the
placement of an upper level trough. The upper level trough is
projected to generally align over North Texas with higher PoPs
across Central Texas and lower PoPs along the Red River under the
apex of the trough.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023/
/Sunday Night and Beyond/

Scattered convection may linger a few hours into Sunday evening
before diminishing due to loss of heating allowing for a partly
cloudy night with warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Additional diurnally-driven scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected across the forecast area Monday afternoon/evening as
a weak upper-level low develops over portions of North and Central
Texas. With weak flow aloft, widespread severe weather is not
expected. However, with plenty moisture available (PWATs
~1.5-1.7") and moderate instability (SBCAPE ~1000-1500 J/kg), a
few more robust thunderstorms containing gusty winds and locally
heavy downpours will be possible.

By late Monday into early Tuesday, subtropical ridging looks to
establish across portions of West Texas and the southern Rockies.
Daily chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
continue through midweek during peak heating with support from
shortwave impulses progressing through the northwest flow aloft.
The best chances (30-50%) for an additional half-inch of rainfall
Monday through Wednesday will reside generally south of I-20 and
west of I-45. The synoptic pattern becomes a bit more unclear
toward the end of the work week into the weekend. The GFS solution
keeps a more unsettled pattern with continued weak disturbances
pushing into North and Central Texas through the weekend. The
ECMWF offers a drier solution with mid-level ridging developing
over the Southern Plains by Friday. One item that is more certain
is that we will likely keep afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low
90s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s as we enter the
second week of June.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

An outflow just moved through the D10 terminals and brought gusty
north winds to all D10 terminals. Scattered thunderstorms are
developing behind the boundary that will likely continue for the
next several hours. Convective activity in D10 should remain more
scattered and mainly east of AFW/FTW and weaken/move out after
about 03-04Z this evening. Light northeast flow should then
prevail for the remainder of the night. Scattered showers and a
few isolated storms are developing near ACT that will also
continue through about 04-05Z this evening.

We are still uncertain about late tonight and tomorrow's
convective activity. A MCS will move across West Texas that will
move toward the D10 terminals late tonight or early tomorrow
morning. The current TAF still has VCSH from 15-21Z...but VCTS
will likely need to be introduced once the MCS starts to move east
and we can get a better sense of the timing INVOF the D10
terminals.

Bonnette

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  87  68  85  67 /  50  50  40  40  20
Waco                67  86  65  83  65 /  30  70  40  50  20
Paris               66  86  66  88  66 /  30  40  20  20  10
Denton              64  87  64  85  64 /  40  50  40  30  10
McKinney            65  87  65  85  65 /  50  50  30  30  10
Dallas              69  88  69  87  68 /  50  50  30  40  20
Terrell             66  87  66  86  66 /  50  50  30  30  10
Corsicana           67  87  67  86  67 /  50  60  40  40  20
Temple              66  87  65  84  65 /  30  70  50  50  20
Mineral Wells       64  85  64  83  64 /  30  60  40  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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