Severe Thunderstorm Warning 539, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
209 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 115 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/
/This afternoon through Monday/

Confidence still remains high regarding the development of strong
to severe thunderstorms across portions of North and Central Texas
this evening and overnight, but the exact timing and location(s)
of initiation remain somewhat questionable.

Early this afternoon, a weak surface low resides near Lake
Texoma, with a pre-frontal boundary extending into the counties NW
and W of the Metroplex. A somewhat more pronounced front exists
further N into SW OK, but should also push southward this
afternoon. Seeing some increased coverage of agitated Cu and mid-
level cloudiness across much of the area, which coincides well
with the synoptic- scale lift that's occurring in advance of the
mid-level shortwave over western KS and the TX Panhandle. Through
the afternoon hours, this lift will continue to erode the cap in
place across the region. Already seeing mixed layer CAPEs on the
order of 2000-300 J/Kg in areas along/east of I-35 with ample PWs
of 1.5-2".

The windshift line NW of the Metroplex will continue to move
southeastward, and the short-term convective allowing models are
suggesting initiation just N/NE of DFW in the 22-23z timeframe.
This activity will subequently build southwestward along the front
in a narrow line early this evening, with more widespread
shower/thunderstorm development expected across much of eastern
North Texas where the deep layer moisture and instability is
richer. There's a big question how far west/northwest the activity
will fire early this evening. At the moment, believe coverage
will be sparse west of I-35/north of I-20, with much greater
coverage anticipated further east and southeast. Went with good
chance/likely PoPs for much of the Metroplex this evening/tonight,
increasing to likely/categorical in our eastern/southeast
counties after midnight. Most of the rain should vacate the
counties north of I-20 after midnight, though a few showers should
linger overnight.

As has been well-advertised, the main threat with these
thunderstorms will be large hail and potentially damaging winds. A
very small tornado threat will also exist in our northeast
counties, mainly this evening where a bit stronger shear will
exist. Finally, given the potential for training cells within the
high PW environment, a localized flash flood threat will also
exist in our northeast/eastern counties overnight.

Looking ahead to Monday, most areas should start off with
substantial cloudiness, though subsidence on the backside of the
trough should yield clearing conditions during the afternoon.
Cold air advection should be minimal behind the front, and enough
insolation should prevail during the afternoon hours to send
daytime temperatures well up into the 80s, and lower 90s.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night and Beyond/

Convection will have pushed off to the south by the start of the
period as the cold front heads for the Coastal Plains. Pleasant
weather can be expected in the wake of the front, with Tuesday
morning temperatures starting off in the 60s. Meanwhile, the upper
low driving the system will move slowly southeast through the
Midwest during the early to midweek period, with a mid level ridge
building over North and Central Texas in its wake. The ridge will
shut off any convection and return the region to above-normal
temperatures by Wednesday, with the hot and dry weather persisting
through the end of the week.

The upper level pattern will amplify next weekend, with the ridge
axis narrowing and stretching north into Ontario while an upper
low deepens over the Desert Southwest. The amplified ridge will
only keep the warm weather going into the weekend. The low will
move very slowly east and likely will not have any direct
influence on the local weather through at least next weekend, with
above normal temperatures expected Wednesday through next Sunday.
The next precipitation chances may have to wait until the middle
of next week depending on the evolution and progression of the
upstream low.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 115 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/
/18z TAFs/

A weak surface low exists near Lake Texoma at 18z, with a pre-
frontal boundary extending to near Mineral Wells and Brownwood.
The airmass across North Central Texas is quite unstable, and
scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to initiate just N/NE of D10 along
the southeastward progressing surface boundary in the 22-00z
timeframe. Have included VCTS in the Metroplex area TAFs for the
22-00z period. Believe enough convection will subsequently build
into the greater D10 area to warrant TEMPO TSRA in the 00-03z
period, but confidence in the exact locations of this activity
is still not great as of yet. It's still possible that convective
initiation will actually be delayed just a bit, occurring just to
the SE of DFW, rather than N of the airport.

Believe the bulk of the precipitation in D10 will shift south of
the area by 06z, though scattered showers will linger until
daybreak Monday.

Convection in the 00-03z timeframe will result in variable wind
conditions in the D10 area, but believe the larger-scale pattern
will eventually yield NE-E winds at around 10 knots during the
03-06z period, with these winds persisting through the remainder
of the TAF period.

Ceilings will likely transition from largely VFR (outside
thunderstorms) to MVFR conditions around 10z, with these lower
clouds persisting until at least 16-17z.

Waco will see similar trends to those observed in the D10, but
delayed a few hours. A period of TEMPO TSRA will likely ensue
around 04z and continue through at least 07z, with VCSH
continuing beyond 12z Monday. Winds will transition to a E or SE
direction in the 08-11z time period, and MVFR ceilings will
prevail through the morning hours Monday.

Bradshaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  89  70  91  70 /  70  20   0   0   0
Waco                73  88  69  90  67 /  70  30   5   5   0
Paris               69  85  64  86  63 /  70  30  10   0   0
Denton              70  90  64  92  65 /  50  20   0   0   0
McKinney            70  87  65  89  65 /  70  20   5   0   0
Dallas              73  88  69  91  68 /  70  20   5   0   0
Terrell             71  86  66  89  65 /  80  30   5   5   0
Corsicana           73  87  70  90  69 /  80  30  10   5   0
Temple              73  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       71  92  65  93  65 /  40  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>094-100>105-
115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
126 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251145-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
126 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and ahead of a cold front moving southeastward through the region
late this afternoon and tonight. Initial formation will likely occur
just northeast through east of the Metroplex, mainly east of I-35
and north of I-20. These storms will subsequently build southward
through the evening and overnight periods.

Some of these storms could become strong to severe with damaging
winds and hail the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to
isolated flash flooding, especially over areas that have seen recent
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across Central Texas during the
morning hours, and a few of these may produce brief strong wind gusts
and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
644 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     Hail             1 SW Buckingham         32.92N 96.74W
09/24/2023  E1.25 inch       Dallas             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Reeves

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
646 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     Hail             1 ESE Buckingham        32.93N 96.71W
09/24/2023  E1.75 inch       Dallas             TX   Public

&&

Reeves

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