Severe Thunderstorm Warning 402, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
231 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 137 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Bottom Line: Additional afternoon thunderstorms are expected,
some of which will be severe. In addition to the storm chances,
heat will increase the potential for heat related illnesses this
afternoon and tomorrow across Central Texas.

The morning thunderstorms that impacted North Texas have
continued to move eastward, now impacting areas in the ArkLaTex
region. Although the main impacts are now east of us, an outflow
boundary was released this morning and has now shifted to/just
south of the I-20 corridor. Much of North Texas is now
experiencing northerly winds with temperatures in the mid 70s to
mid 80s. South of this boundary, hot conditions have developed
with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values
exceeding 100 in many locations. The conditions that lead to a
high heat index (hot and humid) will also contribute the the
overall storm potential later today.

As of 1pm, MLCAPE is topping 4500 J/Kg across portions of Central
Texas, where low clouds have eroded and mostly sunny conditions
are ongoing. At the same time, the outflow boundary is clearly
seen on satellite pushing southward into the highly unstable
environment. Although the southward moving boundary may not be
providing sufficient forcing at this time, synoptic scale ascent
can be seen moving in from the west and is likely to contribute to
the development of severe thunderstorms mainly south of the I-20
corridor.

Severe storms this afternoon will be capable of producing large
to very large hail along with damaging wind gusts. Although the
overall tornado threat will be low, such extreme instability may
quickly stretch the column of air such that the tornado threat
cannot be ruled out. Storms will gradually move southeast through
the evening before exiting our region after midnight.

Additional storms are expected tomorrow along a sharpening
dryline, with a few storms having the potential to become severe.
Storms tomorrow will likely initiate west of I-35 and move
eastward, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds
returning to the area.

Aside from the severe thunderstorm potential, the heat is upon
portions of Central Texas today and tomorrow. Heat index values of
105+ have led to the issuance of a Heat Advisory that will be in
place for the next few days. If you are someone who works outside
or will be spending prolonged periods of time outside, ensure you
take the necessary precautions to avoid heat related illnesses.
Dress in light clothing, ensure you're drinking plenty of water
and take frequent breaks if participating in strenuous
activities.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

A prolonged period of excessive heat is expected through the
extended period, likely necessitating several additional days of
heat headlines for North and Central Texas as an upper-level ridge
centered over Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico prevails. The
probability of additional precipitation will be limited to the
evening/overnight hours Thursday night and Saturday
afternoon/night over eastern North and Central Texas as a couple
of upper level disturbances emerge from the southern Rockies.

Details: An early summer heat wave with 10-15F+ above normal
maximum temperature anomalies is expected to continues across
North and Central Texas as an upper ridge over the western Gulf of
Mexico and southern Plains strengthens through the current
forecast period. Based on the Climate Prediction Center
temperature outlooks, this period of anomalous heat is likely to
extend well beyond next Wednesday with as much as 60-80% chance of
above normal temperatures across much of the state through the
end of June. If there was any doubt that summer is here, this
should serve as your confirmation. Ensemble temperature guidance still
maintains that high temperature records at both of our climate
sites (DFW Airport and Waco Regional Airport) could be challenged
and/or broken over the next 7 days. Additionally, if the current
forecast verifies, DFW Airport should record the first 100 degree
day of the year on Friday.

A byproduct of the southwesterly-westerly flow in the 850-700
millibar layer is the WAA from the higher terrain of the southern
Rockies and Mexico which will result in afternoon highs easily
exceeding the triple digits. Persistent onshore moisture transport
will maintain boundary moisture with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
While dewpoints will likely mix out into at least the lower 70s
during the afternoon, this should still be sufficient to produce
heat index values of 105-110F+. The Heat Advisory in effect
through 9 PM CDT Thursday will likely need to be extended in
subsequent forecast updates as afternoon temperatures are forecast
to reach 103F in a few areas south of I-20 and west of I-35 while
peak heat index values easily surpass 105F across much of the
region by the weekend. As a reminder, local criteria for a Heat
Advisory is maximum daytime heat index values reaching/exceeding
105F or high temperatures reaching/exceeding 103F.

With regard to rain/storm chances, large scale subsidence
associated with the upper level ridge should suppress widespread
convective development...a welcome reprieve after the past 6 days
of severe weather. However, a pair of shortwaves rounding the
ridge/high centered over Mexico Thursday and again on Saturday
will bring thunderstorm chances to the region Thursday and again
late Saturday. As discussed above, there is a chance for scattered
dryline convection Thursday afternoon which may continue moving
across the region Thursday evening before diminishing, however
guidance is also hinting at the potential for an MCS originating
in Kansas potentially clipping our far northeastern counties late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Saturday's convective
potential is limited to generally near and north of Hwy 380 as
another shortwave ejects across the Plains.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 107 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023/
/18Z TAFs/
Concerns...North winds and hazy conditions through mid this
afternoon. Storms developing late this afternoon mainly
south/southeast of D10. MVFR returns early Thursday morning.

North flow is now in place across North Texas as an outflow
boundary has moved through the region. Winds remain light,
generally below 05kt with hazy conditions in place for several
hours. Overall thunderstorm potential within Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex TAF sites has diminished. The greatest threat for storms
has now shifted south/southeast of the D10 airspace, with impacts
to en route traffic expected.

Storm chances will migrate southward across Central Texas
overnight, with minimal impacts by sunrise tomorrow. MVFR is
likely to develop once again by tomorrow morning before scattering
out by early afternoon.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  96  75 100  76 /  10  20  20   0   5
Waco                75  97  75 102  76 /  20  20  10   0   5
Paris               70  91  71  90  73 /  20  10  40  20   5
Denton              69  96  72  99  73 /   5  20  20   0   5
McKinney            71  93  72  96  73 /  10  10  30   5   5
Dallas              73  97  75 101  76 /  10  20  20   0   5
Terrell             72  94  73  97  75 /  30  10  20   5   5
Corsicana           76  97  77  99  77 /  40  10  20   0   5
Temple              76 102  76 103  76 /  10  10  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       70  96  72 101  73 /   0  20  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ144>148-157>162-174-
175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
253 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
253 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon south of I-20
and east of I-35. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats
but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Heat index values greater than 105 are ongoing across portions
of North and Central Texas and may lead to heat related illnesses if
precautions are not taken.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Severe storms will once again be possible Thursday afternoon. Large
hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Additional storms will
be possible Saturday. Saturday's threats will be confined to mainly
lightning.

The heat advisory will continue into the weekend, signifying the
continued threat for heat related illnesses if precautions are not
taken. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light colored
clothing and take frequent breaks if workout outside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon south
of I-20 and east of I-35.

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