Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
151 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 126 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/
/Today and Tomorrow/

An overnight MCS moved across the Central Plains last night with
the leading edge of its cold pool now draped across North Texas.
Deep convection still continues, but it has generally remained
across East Texas outside of our forecast area this morning. The
leading edge of the boundary is now situated from about Canton to
D/FW to Decatur to Mineral Wells. There is a sharp (for June)
temperature gradient along the boundary as well as a notable wind
shift...both of which should help with convective initiation over
the next several hours. Latest AMDAR/aircraft soundings out of
Dallas-Love Field indicate the morning stable layer is mostly
eroded, however there remains a modest amount of (waning) mixed
layer inhibition and mid-level subsidence at this time. Ahead of
the boundary, surface temperatures have climbed into the mid 90s
with a few more hours of heating to go. This heating will only
deepen the mixing, and point toward an increased severe threat
once storms are able to develop. Over the past hour or so, a
shallow cumulus field has developed along the stalled boundary.
There has been little to no vertical development with the Cu thus
far, but we do expect that to change in the coming hours as a weak
shortwave trough moves in from the west and subsidence on the back
side of the MCS loosens its grip.

We're expecting the first storms to develop along the stalled
boundary as early as 2 PM with more expansive coverage through
the afternoon into the evening. MLCAPE values are forecast to
range between 2000-3500 J/kg with mid-level lapse rates between
8-9 deg C/km. Although the deep-layer shear is weak, there is
still plenty of instability and near liner 0-6 km hodographs to
support localized supercells, particularly at the onset of the
event. The storms will develop over a deeply mixed boundary layer
(about 3 km high) with a layer of mid-level dry air. Both of these
features will promote rapid downdraft acceleration, increasing
the threat of damaging wind gusts. Isolated hail up to 2-3" will
be possible this afternoon with any supercells and damaging wind
gusts upwards of 70 mph will be possible under just about any
storm this afternoon.

After the first storms develop, additional storms will develop
along outflow boundaries and create a rather messy convective
mode later in the day. Strong cold-pools will be the name of the
game, which favors upscale growth after just a couple hours of
convective initiation. Expect broken linear segments to develop
by late this afternoon into the evening roughly along/east of I-35
and south of I-20. The severe main threat will switch to damaging
wind gusts as the complex moves off to the east-southeast through
the evening, eventually exiting into East/Southeast Texas
tonight. Once the storms grow upscale, the flash flood threat will
ramp up as well. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be
possible, especially if any cold pools align from NW to SE and
promote training storms.

After the storms clear out this evening, south flow is expected
with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s. Tomorrow is shaping up
to be another hot day with highs climbing into the upper 90s to
low 100s. A weak cold front is expected to sag into North Texas
in the afternoon. Similar to today, the front may serve as a
focused source of ascent for thunderstorm development. The main
difference between tomorrow and today is that there will be modest
mid-level ridging over the region that may squash any convective
attempts from materializing. For now, we have capped PoPs at 20%,
but there will be a conditional threat of severe weather if storms
are able to develop.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The discussion below is still largely on track, but it is worth
noting that the MOS guidance continues to undercut the NBM in
regard to high temperature almost each day this week. Given the
slight weakness of the mid-level ridge over the Southern Plains,
we have nudged the high temperatures down a degree or two each
day. The weaker ridge will also allow for a weak front to hover
near North Texas for much of the week with daily rain/storm
chances until late in the week and next weekend when the apex of
the mid-level high starts to shift over Texas.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Next Week/

Fortunately, the front will bring a brief reprieve from the heat
for much of North Texas on Monday, with afternoon temperatures
remaining in the mid 80s to low 90s. Further south across Central
Texas, a hot afternoon in the mid to upper 90s is expected, but
most locations will be spared from triple digit temperatures.
Storm chances will return Monday evening as a shortwave trough
passes over North Texas during peak heating, potentially resulting
in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms near the
stalled frontal boundary. Models offer a wide variety of solutions
Monday evening, which is likely attributed to significant
disagreement in available moisture. However, if storms are able to
develop, they would likely be severe, especially for areas south
of I-20 where hot temperatures will result in high instability.

The rest of the week will feature a warming trend, with widespread
triple digit temperatures expected Wednesday and beyond. A Heat
Advisory may be needed by late in the week, as heat index values
will likely exceed 105 degrees across portions of the area both
Thursday and Friday. A sub-tropical ridge over Mexico will keep
rain chances near zero for most of the area. The main exception
will be across eastern North Texas where a couple passing
shortwave troughs may bring some low chances for showers and
storms mid to late next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 126 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/
/18Z TAFs/

NE flow prevails at the D10 airports after an outflow moved across
the region earlier this morning. The winds will veer and become
out of the E-SE in the next hour or so. The boundary is stalled
over the southern D10 terminals, which will soon become a focus
for thunderstorm development this afternoon.

We have moved the timing of VCTS up to 20-01Z and the timing for
TS on station up to 21-23Z...although there may still be some
minor changes in the timing to come. Scattered storms are expected
to develop INVOF the D10 terminals with strong outflows under each
storm. These outflows will create strong wind gusts that may be
erratic at times. Any storms that develop should move east-
southeast late in the day and move out of the DFW cornerposts
after 02-04Z. Similar TS timing is expected at ACT, but delayed
by a couple hours.

South flow will then prevail tonight with a surge of MVFR stratus
moving into Central/East Texas early tomorrow morning. A cold
front is expected to move into North Texas tomorrow that may
develop additional storms INVOF D10 and bring a northerly wind
shift. For now, we have sided to keep those finer details out of
the TAF in favor of including more detail with today's weather.

Bonnette

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  99  73  91  71 /  70  20  20  20  30
Waco                72  99  74  95  71 /  60   5  10   5  10
Paris               68  93  69  85  66 /  50  20  10  20  40
Denton              68  98  69  89  67 /  50  20  10  20  30
McKinney            70  95  70  88  69 /  60  20  10  20  30
Dallas              72  99  73  92  71 /  70  20  20  20  30
Terrell             70  96  72  90  70 /  70  20  20  20  30
Corsicana           71  97  74  93  73 /  70  10  20  10  20
Temple              71  99  72  98  71 /  50   5   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       68 100  70  91  70 /  30  20  10  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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