Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Fort Worth, TX

684 
WGUS74 KFWD 162330
FFSFWD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
630 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXC113-439-170115-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230317T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dallas TX-Tarrant TX-
630 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN DALLAS AND CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTIES...

At 630 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Have received several social media 
reports of flooded roadways around Downtown Fort Worth and the North 
Richland Hills area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. 
Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Garland, Irving, Grand Prairie, 
  Mesquite, Carrollton, Richardson, Euless, Bedford, Grapevine, 
  Haltom City, Keller, Coppell, Hurst, Farmers Branch, Southlake, 
  Watauga and University Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3291 9754 3299 9692 3298 9665 3280 9666
      3274 9704 3266 9755

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Langfeld

129 
WGUS74 KFWD 170106
FFSFWD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
806 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXC113-439-170116-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230317T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dallas TX-Tarrant TX-
806 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN DALLAS AND CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTIES...

New flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. However, 
earlier rainfall may continue to run off and cause flooding of 
streams and creeks as well as other low lying and poor drainage 
areas. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3291 9754 3299 9692 3298 9665 3280 9666
      3274 9704 3266 9755

$$

Langfeld

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
157 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 142 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023/
/Rest of Today through Friday/

A cold front currently resides from Central Oklahoma into the
Texas Panhandle with scattered showers and thunderstorms, a couple
severe, located along the frontal boundary. Some clearing can be
observed on satellite imagery across our western zones where
temperatures have now rose into the upper 70s and low 80s. A weak
center of surface low pressure has developed along the Red River
Valley west of Wichita Falls, Texas with a dryline extending
southward into west-central Texas. This dryline will continue
pushing east toward the Highway 281 corridor this afternoon as the
cold front rapidly progresses southward into North Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been observed across the
eastern half of the CWA this morning with a few reports of sub-
severe hail. Additional development is possible across our east
and southeast this afternoon and may pose an isolated severe risk.
A passing shortwave currently located over the Texas Panhandle
will help provide additional lift for thunderstorm development
across our area this afternoon into this evening.

Isolated supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
vicinity of the triple point, along the cold front, and southward
along the dryline later this afternoon, generally after 3-4PM.
Large hail will be the primary threat with these initial storms
with 50-60 kts of effective shear, SBCAPE ~2000-3000 J/kg and
steep mid-level lapse rates. Hail greater than golf-ball size will
be possible in the strongest storms. Decent 0-3km CAPE and low-
level SRH >150 m2/s2 will allow for a low end tornado threat.
Current thinking is that the greatest risk for large hail and a
couple tornadoes will take place along/east of Highway 281 and
along/north of I-20 from 3PM-8PM. Recent high-res guidance has
struggled to place the cold front today, with the cold front
progressing a bit quicker than originally thought. There is
potential that the cold front pushes through North Texas rather
quickly, undercutting any existing storms and limiting the overall
severe weather threat. Elevated severe storms capable of large
hail will still be a potential hazard in this scenario.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale into a line of
thunderstorms later this evening and push southward across the CWA
into tonight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard in
any portions of the line that are able to keep up with the cold
front. The cold front should push into our Central Texas counties
by 8-9PM and push south of the CWA by 12-1AM. Lingering showers
and thunderstorms, non-severe, will be possible across Central
Texas and the Brazos Valley into Friday morning. A much cooler and
drier airmass will filter into the region behind the frontal
boundary with strong north-northwesterly post-frontal winds of
20-30 mph gusting to 40-45 mph at times later this evening into
Friday morning. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire
CWA from 5PM this evening through 10AM Friday morning.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to low 40s across the area
tonight behind the front with below-average afternoon highs in
the 50s expected on Friday.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Only minor adjustments were made with this forecast update and the
discussion below remains on track. Cloud cover Friday night will
inhibit some areas from dropping to/below freezing. Areas near
and north of I-20 are still the most likely to experience low
temperatures below freezing each night through the weekend.
Otherwise, low (20-30%) rain chances arrive Monday, with periodic
low rain chances through the rest of the week. Temperatures return
to near or slightly above normal by Wednesday.

Gordon

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

A period of well below normal temperatures and sporadic low rain
chances will prevail through the early part of next week behind
today's strong cold front. Friday night will be the coldest night
in a while with temperatures likely dropping to near or just below
freezing to the west and north of the Metroplex. Some patchy frost
will also be possible early Saturday morning. An increase in high
cloud cover late Friday night into Saturday will likely prevent
temperatures from falling further, but these clouds will thin out
during the day Saturday and another cold night is expected with
temperatures falling to below freezing along the Red River
Saturday night.

An upstream shortwave will become sheared apart as it spreads into
the Plains on Monday. Prior to this though, modest moisture return
across parts of Central and West Texas will result in an increase
in low cloud cover, mainly across our western counties. As large
scale lift increases Sunday night into Monday, we could see some
light rain develop across the region. Global ensembles have backed
off on this potential to some degree, so we'll generally limit
PoPs to 20-30%. The increased cloud cover will hold high temps
down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for Monday afternoon.

A much stronger system will move into California on Tuesday and
will be responsible for a rapid low level moisture return into the
Plains starting Tuesday morning. This will also support a rapid
warmup through the middle and latter part of next week. Morning
cloud cover will give way to partly sunny skies Tue/Wed afternoons
with temps warming back into the mid/upper 70s by Wednesday. This
system will eventually kick out into the Central Plains late next
week and likely support another severe weather episode in the
Thu/Fri timeframe.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR/IFR cigs ~800-1200 ft will persist into early this afternoon
with periods of VFR expected by late this afternoon into this
evening. Rain showers are currently pushing east of the D10
airspace. Southerly winds of 15-20 kts gusting to 30 kts will
take on a more southwesterly component ahead of a cold front later
this afternoon, potentially leading to some crosswind issues.

Initial isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop later this
afternoon across North Texas, generally after 21Z, as a cold
front pushes into North Texas. Some of these storms could become
severe. These isolated thunderstorms will transition into a line
of thunderstorms and push into the D10 sites by 23Z-00Z and push
into KACT by 01Z-02Z. Additional showers and thunderstorms, non-
severe, may linger into Friday morning across Central Texas.
Strong north-northwesterly winds gusting to 35-40 kts at times are
expected behind the front late this evening and into Friday
morning.

Langfeld

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    39  55  38  57  35 /  80   0   0   0   0
Waco                40  55  39  56  36 /  70  30   0   5   5
Paris               38  52  34  55  30 /  90   0   0   0   0
Denton              35  53  33  56  30 /  60   0   0   0   0
McKinney            38  53  34  55  30 /  90   0   0   0   0
Dallas              40  55  38  57  35 /  80   5   0   0   0
Terrell             39  54  36  57  32 /  90  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           41  55  39  57  36 /  80  30   0   0   0
Temple              40  55  38  56  36 /  80  40   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       36  55  34  57  32 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Friday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
139 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
139 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today with a severe
threat this afternoon and evening. Large hail (greater than golf ball
size) will be the main threat with initial storm development. As a
cold front approaches late this afternoon, a damaging wind threat
will increase. There will also be a potential for tornadoes into the
evening hours.

Strong winds will spread into the region behind the cold front this
evening with wind gusts up to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Freezing temperatures will be possible during the upcoming weekend,
particularly in areas north of the I-20 corridor. A late-season frost
is likely Saturday morning in sheltered locations and where light
winds dominate.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening across North
and Central Texas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
452 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE GRAPEVINE          32.90N 97.04W
03/16/2023  M58 MPH          TARRANT            TX   ASOS

            DFW ASOS RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH (50
            KNOTS).

&&

HLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
506 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             1 S IRVING              32.84N 96.97W
03/16/2023  M1.25 INCH       DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

&&

HLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
509 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             3 SSW FORT WORTH        32.71N 97.36W
03/16/2023  E1.00 INCH       TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

&&

HLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
512 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             2 NNE BENBROOK          32.71N 97.45W
03/16/2023  M2.00 INCH       TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

&&

HLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
514 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     HAIL             3 S WESTOVER HILLS      32.70N 97.40W
03/16/2023  E1.25 INCH       TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

&&

HLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             1 WNW CLEBURNE          32.36N 97.43W
03/16/2023  E2.75 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HLR