Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
727 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Friday/

A cyclone over the high plains of eastern Colorado helped force a
dryline out of West Texas today. This pattern favored a bulge into
the Big Country and Northwest Texas where thunderstorms developed
this afternoon. Downstream ridging aloft has stifled convective
attempts deeper into the humid air despite MLCAPE values
approaching 5000 J/kg. Temperatures peaked in the 80s east of the
boundary, but with dew points as high as the mid 70s at peak
heating, heat index values have soared into the mid 90s. There is
still a window for this instability to be realized, but sunset and
a retreating dryline will soon close it. The main focus this
evening will be the ongoing storms in our northwestern zones,
which may be able to survive past nightfall as a low-level jet
feeds any updrafts that try to separate from the boundary layer.

Rich boundary layer moisture, a renewed blanket of stratus, and
breezy surface winds will keep morning lows well above normal
Friday morning. Similar to the preceding day, the clouds will
gradually scatter with sunshine resulting in an unseasonably muggy
afternoon. As the storm system in the Central Plains moves further
away, our mid-level flow will weaken, and the dryline will stay
well west of our area Friday afternoon. Considerable instability
and reduced inhibition may allow for some disorganized convective
initiation, but the main event will have to wait until a potent
shortwave emerges from the Mexican Plateau. Showers and storms to
our west and southwest will invade by Friday evening, the first
round in what will be a wet weekend.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023/
/Friday Night through Thursday/

A period of active weather will be ongoing by Friday night with
widespread convection increasing in coverage early in the period
mainly across our western and southwestern counties. This initial
activity may have a severe hail/wind threat, especially west of
I-35 where a reservoir of 3000+ J/kg will reside. As we get into
the nighttime hours, a 40 kt low level jet will become established
across Central Texas as a slow moving upper trough swings
northward through the state. A blossoming of convection is
expected overnight Friday night into Saturday morning with our
western areas favored to see the heaviest rainfall. Broad
troughing will persist across the Central CONUS through the
weekend with waves of ascent overspreading North and Central TX
resulting in continued shower/storm chances. Highest PoPs will be
late Friday night into Saturday and again late Sunday into Sunday
night. The current flood watch runs from Friday evening through
Saturday evening, but it's likely that we'll see some expansion in
both area/timing through this event. Widespread rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches are expected west of I-35 with isolated heavier
amounts. The unsettled pattern will continue into next week with
a slow moving upper low and weak tropospheric winds contributing
to slow moving scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances
will continue pretty much every afternoon through next week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns: storms this evening, IFR Friday morning.

Dryline-induced thunderstorms remain northwest of the D10 TRACON,
but will continue to disrupt northwest arrivals. Convective
attempts closer to the D10 have struggled, but VCTS through mid-
evening highlights the lingering potential for impacts closer to
the terminals. An ensuing low-level jet may be able to maintain
the ongoing cluster of storms, which could skirt the northern
reaches of the D10.

This low-level jet may induce some LLWS, but breezy southerly
winds should keep it just below the threshold for inclusion in the
TAFs. This will also help a blanket of stratus to return
overnight. With richer moisture within the boundary layer,
ceilings will be lower, IFR prevailing for the Metroplex TAF sites
much of the morning. Some reductions in visibility will occur, but
the breezier winds should preclude a repeat of Thursday morning's
ground fog. VFR will prevail Friday afternoon, but the enhanced
moisture beneath an inversion may keep ceilings in place longer
than the preceding day.

The dryline will not be in play Friday afternoon, but a few
isolated showers or storms will still be possible within North
Texas. A protracted rain event will begin Friday evening when
showers and storms invade from the west.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  87  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  80  50
Waco                72  84  68  80  67 /  10  20  40  80  60
Paris               71  84  67  84  67 /  50  30  30  50  40
Denton              70  87  67  83  65 /  30  30  40  70  50
McKinney            71  85  67  83  67 /  30  30  30  70  50
Dallas              72  87  70  84  69 /  20  20  40  70  50
Terrell             72  85  69  85  67 /  20  30  30  70  40
Corsicana           73  87  71  85  69 /  10  20  30  70  40
Temple              71  85  67  80  65 /  10  20  40  80  60
Mineral Wells       70  90  66  81  65 /  30  30  60  90  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
TXZ141>144-156>160-174.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
733 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
733 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible tonight, primarily north of the I-20
corridor. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds. Tornadic supercells may accompany the activity this
evening in areas northwest of the Metroplex.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will become more likely and widespread across western
parts of the region late Friday and into early Saturday morning.
Strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging winds and
large hail as the primary hazards. In addition, localized very heavy
rainfall across western North and Central Texas may result in a few
instances of flooding or flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect
for portions of Central Texas from Friday evening through Saturday
evening.

Daily instances of scattered thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall
are anticipated the rest of the weekend and into early next week.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. However, strong storms
with small hail and gusty winds are possible, especially during the
daylight hours. In addition, a few instances of flooding or flash
flooding will remain possible daily where soils become saturated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

TXZ091-101-112300-
Montague TX-Jack TX-
537 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Montague and northern Jack Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newport, or 13 miles southwest of Bowie, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bowie, Jacksboro, Lake Amon G Carter, Newport, Cundiff, Stoneburg,
Fruitland, Postoak and Lost Creek Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 9769 3343 9785 3343 9792 3336 9792
      3320 9821 3329 9836 3347 9820 3347 9798
      3370 9798 3372 9796
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 212DEG 23KT 3342 9801

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JLDunn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
610 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

TXZ101-112330-
Jack TX-
610 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Jack
County through 630 PM CDT...

At 603 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bryson, or 10 miles west of Jacksboro, moving northeast at 30 mph. A
severe thunderstorm also continues to impact the northeast parts of
Jack County.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksboro, Bryson, Fort Richardson State Park and Jermyn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 9842 3333 9831 3322 9815 3301 9842
      3304 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 216DEG 26KT 3320 9833

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JLDunn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             7 WNW JACKSBORO         33.26N 98.27W
05/11/2023  E0.88 INCH       JACK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
739 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             3 SW BOWIE              33.53N 97.88W
05/11/2023  E1.00 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             9 NE JACKSBORO          33.31N 98.04W
05/11/2023  E1.00 INCH       JACK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WEST OF CUNDIFF ON 1810.

&&

MSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
801 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             6 WNW CHICO             33.31N 97.90W
05/11/2023  E1.00 INCH       WISE               TX   STORM CHASER

&&

MSS