Tornado Warning 19, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

604 
WWUS53 KFSD 110139
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
839 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

SDC011-077-110149-
/O.CAN.KFSD.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230811T0200Z/
Kingsbury SD-Brookings SD-
839 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KINGSBURY AND NORTHWESTERN
BROOKINGS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
east central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4440 9715 4454 9725 4454 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 235DEG 30KT 4457 9705 

$$

IG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
611 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

The thunderstorm threat still exists late this afternoon and evening
as a fast moving mid level wave moves through. A nose of
instability juts into the area with about 2000 J/kg CAPE, so enough
to support some strong updrafts. However, shear is marginal at best
so any stronger updrafts that develop will be mostly shorter lived.
The lack of stronger mid and upper level winds also suggests that an
organized line of storms is pretty unlikely. So, an isolated storm
could produce golf ball or so sized hail and wind gusts of 65 to 70
mph. The latest models have been backing off on coverage, as seems
to have been the trend most of the summer, with the better chances
now north of I-90. Model soundings still suggest that some isolated
to scattered storms will be possible near and south of I-90 so not
completely buying into the idea that there will be nothing.
Otherwise a warm night with lows in the 60s.

Friday still shows potential for an isolated severe storm near and
east of I-29 from mid afternoon into early evening. With some
fairly strong shear and CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg a supercell
would be possible with hail to tennis ball, wind gusts to 65 mph and
an isolated tornado. It just comes down to being able to break the
cap which the latest runs are hinting could occur. Should be a warm
day with most locations topping out from the mid 80s to around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Other than a few spotty storms in northwest IA and southwest MN
early in the evening, Friday night into Saturday looks dry and warm
with northwest flow aloft. Lows should be in the upper 50s to lower
60s with highs in the 80s.

Saturday night into Sunday a bit strong wave digs into the Northern
Plains and northern MN which will bring the next better chance for
showers and thunderstorms, which should be late Saturday night into
Sunday. At this time severe weather looks unlikely with mainly
weaker elevated instability. With this stronger wave there is some
slightly more organized warm advection in the low to mid levels so
the chances for rainfall are pretty good. Behind this warm advection
will be some stronger cold advection so wind gusts around 30 mph in
the afternoon appear likely. With the good chances for rain and
additional cloud cover as well as an incoming cool front high
temperatures should be below normal and mainly in the 70s.

The better rain chances should shift east pretty quickly on Sunday
night with a cooler air mass left behind into Monday. This should
mean lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Breezy conditions will
remain with gusts of 20 to 25 mph likely.

Tuesday into Wednesday should see northwest flow aloft with mainly
dry and warm conditions. Highs in the 80s and lows 55 to 65.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will move across the area
through 05Z as a boundary slides eastward, and a few of these
storms could be severe. Gusty southerly winds will transition to
west/northwesterly with the passage of the boundary.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
449 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-111000-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
449 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered storms are expected to develop late this afternoon, west of
a line from Huron to Lake Andes South Dakota. Scattered to numerous
storms will move east across the remainder of southeast South Dakota,
into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa through the evening,
pushing east of the Highway 71 corridor between midnight and 2 am.
Some storms may become severe during the late afternoon and evening,
with up to 2 inch hail and wind gusts to 70 mph the primary threats.
While the potential is low, an isolated tornado and locally heavy
rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low chance of storms during the late afternoon to early
evening Friday, mainly in parts of southwest Minnesota. If storms
develop, strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
are possible.

Another round of storms is expected late Saturday night and Sunday.
While details on timing and location are still uncertain, a few
strong to severe storms will again be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible between 5 pm and midnight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
615 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     Hail             9 NE Wessington         44.55N 98.56W
08/10/2023  E1.00 inch       Beadle             SD   Public

            Report and photo via social media. Largest
            stone quarter sized. Time estimated via
            radar.

&&

SG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
649 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Hail             9 WNW Ethan             43.60N 98.14W
08/10/2023  E1.00 inch       Davison            SD   Trained Spotter

            Pea to quarter sized hail, but mostly
            quarter sized.

&&

SG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
653 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Hail             4 S Mount Vernon        43.66N 98.27W
08/10/2023  E1.00 inch       Davison            SD   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.). Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

SG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
756 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     Hail             De Smet                 44.39N 97.55W
08/10/2023  E1.00 inch       Kingsbury          SD   Emergency Mngr

            EM for Kingsbury county called to report 1
            inch hail.

&&

AJP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
804 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     Tornado          4 W Erwin               44.48N 97.53W
08/10/2023                   Kingsbury          SD   Public

            Report relayed through DeSmet Fire, public
            reported tornado on the ground.

&&

AJP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
823 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tornado          2 E Erwin               44.48N 97.40W
08/10/2023                   Kingsbury          SD   Emergency Mngr

            Kingsbury EM called to report tornado on the
            ground following 200th st, approximately 4
            east of 441st ave.

&&

AJP