Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

753 
WWUS53 KFSD 250319
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1019 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

MNC033-250345-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-230625T0345Z/
Cottonwood MN-
1019 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL COTTONWOOD COUNTY...

At 1018 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Jeffers, or 11
miles north of Windom, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Cottonwood County, including the following locations...
Delft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4392 9534 4403 9534 4411 9514 4411 9510
      4410 9486 4401 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 247DEG 23KT 4403 9517 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Chapman

527 
WWUS53 KFSD 250343
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1043 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

MNC033-250353-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-230625T0345Z/
Cottonwood MN-
1043 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL COTTONWOOD COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
southwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4392 9534 4403 9534 4411 9514 4411 9510
      4410 9486 4401 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 245DEG 31KT 4407 9498 

$$

SG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
653 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

THIS AFTERNOON: Initial attention is focused on severe weather
threat in northwest Iowa. At 3 PM, a moisture boundary is draped
from just east of Sioux City IA to Worthington MN. Nearby and to its
east, a cumulus field with occasional orphan anvil puffs suggests
lingering potential for isolated severe storms through around 5-6
PM. Big question is whether mid level dry air entraining in can
destabilize the profile enough to initiate a few storms in this
area, but CAMS aside from the NAM Nest suggest additional storm
initiation is unlikely.

THIS EVENING: Further west, a mid level shortwave will continue to
trigger isolated strong and perhaps even severe Tstorms in south
central SD until sunset. The environment is marginal for severe
weather with large hail up to half dollar size and damaging wind
gusts up to 65 mph. Despite 30 to 40 kts 0-6km shear, the strongest
storms will struggle to maintain strong to severe strength with only
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, modest mid level lapse rates, and 500-1000
J/kg DCAPE.

Late in the evening, the upper trough axis aloft swings in, turning
winds northwest. With a trailing low level jet at 30 to 60 kts, the
main impact turns to a pretty significant temperature drop into the
60s and 50s, as well as gusty winds kicking in. Expect gusts of 35
to 45 mph to spread in from the northwest overnight. Isolated
showers spreading through could mix down an occasional gust up to 50
mph across portions of south central South Dakota.

SUNDAY: Notably cooler Sunday in close proximity of the upper low,
which meanders through southern Minnesota. Temperatures will
generally rise into the 70s Sunday afternoon, perhaps with 80s in
parts of northwest Iowa and northeast Nebraska where some sunshine
is more likely to peek through. Maintained a low chance of
lingering light rain showers or sprinkles collocated with the
stratus through most of the day, especially in southwest
Minnesota. Northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph will persist well
into the day, weakening slowly heading into the evening.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A low chance of light rain or sprinkles continues
with stratus in parts of southwest Minnesota Sunday evening, but
skies should gradually clear from the west as drier air entrains
in via northerly flow. Expect a cool night with lows in the 50s,
maybe even slightly cooler than we have currently forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Monday-Wednesday: The previously mentioned upper level low
continues to slowly circulate eastwards with a mid-level ridge
moving into the region from the west. As heights begin to rise, an
abundance of sunshine will lead to warmer temperatures through
the midweek with the resulting highs being closer to upper 70s to
mid 80s across the area. Looking into the precipitation side of
things, a mid-level wave will likely track through the northern
plains sometime Tuesday into Wednesday bringing our next
precipitation chances. However, medium range guidance does start
to diverges on the strength and timing of the wave. As a result,
confidence is low in severe weather potential at this time.
Nonetheless, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
mostly along and west of I-29. Otherwise, more breezy conditions
are ahead. On Monday, the surface pressure gradient (SPG) tightens
leading to strong northwesterly winds with gusts between 25-35
mph possible along and east of I-29. The afternoon breeziness will
continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with the winds expected to
shift to the southeast with wind gusts between 20-30 mph possible.

Thursday-Saturday: Looking in the later part of the week, the warm
conditions continues with daily highs expected to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s across the area. More precipitation chances return
Thursday and Friday as an upper level wave moves through the
northern plains. However, long range guidance continues to struggle
with the timing and location of the wave. As a result, low
confidence POPs remain in the forecast with the possibility for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Otherwise, marginally breezy conditions are expected into the
weekend with gusts up to 20 mph possible in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Isolated showers and Tstorms will continue to track east near
Sioux City and Sioux Falls through 03z. The strongest storms may
produce hail up to half dollar size, gusty erratic winds, and
heavy downpours. Outside of precipitation, VFR conditions and
westerly winds with gusts up to 20 kts should prevail until a
front moves in late this evening.

Expect winds to shift from west to northwest behind the front
with gusts of 30 to 40 kts likely overnight. MVFR stratus and rain
showers are likely to spread in behind the front overnight,
impacting Huron starting 02-04z and Sioux Falls around 06-08z.
Stratus should slowly clear out from west to east later on Sunday,
lingering longest in southwest Minnesota.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...Gumbs
AVIATION...BP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
457 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-251200-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
457 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected early this evening. A few of
these storms may become strong to severe, producing hail up to golf
ball size and wind gusts up to 65 mph.

Overnight, northwest winds are expected to gust 35 to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms mid week and again Friday. Widespread
hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 8 PM tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
459 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     Hail             6 NE Dante              43.09N 98.09W
06/24/2023  M1.25 inch       Bon Homme          SD   Public

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
509 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Hail             6 SW Springfield        42.79N 97.96W
06/24/2023  M1.25 inch       Bon Homme          SD   Public

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
510 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NE Tyndall            43.04N 97.79W
06/24/2023  E50 MPH          Bon Homme          SD   Trained Spotter

            Winds estimated at 50 mph blowing twigs and
            debris around. Heavy rain and no hail.

&&

TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
531 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     Hail             2 N Wagner              43.11N 98.30W
06/24/2023  E1.25 inch       Charles Mix        SD   Public

            Photo of large hail in persons hand via
            social media. Time estimated from radar.

&&

TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
604 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     Hail             5 NW Mission Hill       42.97N 97.37W
06/24/2023  M0.88 inch       Yankton            SD   Public

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
727 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     Hail             3 S Wakonda             42.96N 97.10W
06/24/2023  M0.88 inch       Clay               SD   Public

            Picture on social media.

&&

JC