Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
413 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

THIS AFTERNOON: Initial attention is focused on severe weather
threat in northwest Iowa. At 3 PM, a moisture boundary is draped
from just east of Sioux City IA to Worthington MN. Nearby and to its
east, a cumulus field with occasional orphan anvil puffs suggests
lingering potential for isolated severe storms through around 5-6
PM. Big question is whether mid level dry air entraining in can
destabilize the profile enough to initiate a few storms in this
area, but CAMS aside from the NAM Nest suggest additional storm
initiation is unlikely.

THIS EVENING: Further west, a mid level shortwave will continue to
trigger isolated strong and perhaps even severe Tstorms in south
central SD until sunset. The environment is marginal for severe
weather with large hail up to half dollar size and damaging wind
gusts up to 65 mph. Despite 30 to 40 kts 0-6km shear, the strongest
storms will struggle to maintain strong to severe strength with only
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, modest mid level lapse rates, and 500-1000
J/kg DCAPE.

Late in the evening, the upper trough axis aloft swings in, turning
winds northwest. With a trailing low level jet at 30 to 60 kts, the
main impact turns to a pretty significant temperature drop into the
60s and 50s, as well as gusty winds kicking in. Expect gusts of 35
to 45 mph to spread in from the northwest overnight. Isolated
showers spreading through could mix down an occasional gust up to 50
mph across portions of south central South Dakota.

SUNDAY: Notably cooler Sunday in close proximity of the upper low,
which meanders through southern Minnesota. Temperatures will
generally rise into the 70s Sunday afternoon, perhaps with 80s in
parts of northwest Iowa and northeast Nebraska where some sunshine
is more likely to peek through. Maintained a low chance of
lingering light rain showers or sprinkles collocated with the
stratus through most of the day, especially in southwest
Minnesota. Northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph will persist well
into the day, weakening slowly heading into the evening.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A low chance of light rain or sprinkles continues
with stratus in parts of southwest Minnesota Sunday evening, but
skies should gradually clear from the west as drier air entrains
in via northerly flow. Expect a cool night with lows in the 50s,
maybe even slightly cooler than we have currently forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Monday-Wednesday: The previously mentioned upper level low
continues to slowly circulate eastwards with a mid-level ridge
moving into the region from the west. As heights begin to rise, an
abundance of sunshine will lead to warmer temperatures through
the midweek with the resulting highs being closer to upper 70s to
mid 80s across the area. Looking into the precipitation side of
things, a mid-level wave will likely track through the northern
plains sometime Tuesday into Wednesday bringing our next
precipitation chances. However, medium range guidance does start
to diverges on the strength and timing of the wave. As a result,
confidence is low in severe weather potential at this time.
Nonetheless, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
mostly along and west of I-29. Otherwise, more breezy conditions
are ahead. On Monday, the surface pressure gradient (SPG) tightens
leading to strong northwesterly winds with gusts between 25-35
mph possible along and east of I-29. The afternoon breeziness will
continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with the winds expected to
shift to the southeast with wind gusts between 20-30 mph possible.

Thursday-Saturday: Looking in the later part of the week, the warm
conditions continues with daily highs expected to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s across the area. More precipitation chances return
Thursday and Friday as an upper level wave moves through the
northern plains. However, long range guidance continues to struggle
with the timing and location of the wave. As a result, low
confidence POPs remain in the forecast with the possibility for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Otherwise, marginally breezy conditions are expected into the
weekend with gusts up to 20 mph possible in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

MVFR stratocumulus should lift to low VFR and thin out this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered strong to severe Tstorms are
expected to develop east of a Spencer to Sioux City line this
afternoon and track east out of the area by early evening.

Additional isolated showers and storms are possible across
eastern SD this evening, tracking into adjacent portions of MN and
IA overnight. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe Tstorm
with large hail and gusty erratic winds through the evening
hours.

Outside of precipitation, VFR conditions and westerly winds with
gusts up to 20 kts should prevail until a front moves in late this
evening. Expect winds to shift northwest behind the front with
gusts of 30 to 40 kts possible. MVFR stratus is likely to spread
in behind the front overnight, clearing out from west to east later
on Sunday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...Gumbs
AVIATION...BP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
457 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-251200-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
457 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected early this evening. A few of
these storms may become strong to severe, producing hail up to golf
ball size and wind gusts up to 65 mph.

Overnight, northwest winds are expected to gust 35 to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms mid week and again Friday. Widespread
hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 8 PM tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
405 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Hail             Ravinia                 43.14N 98.43W
06/24/2023  E0.70 inch       Charles Mix        SD   Trained Spotter

            Pea to dime sized hail and very heavy
            rainfall.

&&

TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
411 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Hail             Ravinia                 43.14N 98.43W
06/24/2023  M1.00 inch       Charles Mix        SD   Trained Spotter

&&

JC

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
437 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     Hail             4 N Dante               43.09N 98.18W
06/24/2023  E1.50 inch       Charles Mix        SD   Public

            Hail up to the size of walnuts and heavy
            rain.

&&

TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
455 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Hail             6 NE Dante              43.10N 98.10W
06/24/2023  M0.75 inch       Bon Homme          SD   Trained Spotter

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
459 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     Hail             6 NE Dante              43.09N 98.09W
06/24/2023  M1.25 inch       Bon Homme          SD   Public

&&

JC