Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

906 
WWUS53 KFSD 311957
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
257 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

SDC011-312007-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-230531T2015Z/
Brookings SD-
257 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BROOKINGS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4462 9618 4449 9635 4447 9637 4447 9638
      4448 9640 4454 9646 4463 9645 4463 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 208DEG 24KT 4464 9640 

$$

MNC081-312015-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-230531T2015Z/
Lincoln MN-
257 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

At 257 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lake Cochrane
Rec Area, or 15 miles southeast of Clear Lake, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hendricks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4462 9618 4449 9635 4447 9637 4447 9638
      4448 9640 4454 9646 4463 9645 4463 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 208DEG 24KT 4464 9640 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Meyers

889 
WWUS53 KFSD 312008
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
308 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

MNC081-312017-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-230531T2015Z/
Lincoln MN-
308 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain is still possible with this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4462 9618 4449 9635 4447 9637 4447 9638
      4448 9640 4454 9646 4463 9645 4463 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 212DEG 28KT 4470 9635 

$$

Meyers

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1252 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Early this morning, broken lines of convection across West River
into central Nebraska have been weakening as they slowly push
east in association with a weak disturbance aloft. Prior to sunrise,
will watch for additional thunderstorm development in the wake of
an eastward moving outflow boundary, but any activity should be
isolated.

For the rest of today, aforementioned disturbance will continue
to lift northeastward within weak southwest flow aloft. Latest
CAMs suggest some convective development along a weak surface
boundary by this afternoon and early evening. Timing/coverage are
somewhat uncertain given subtle weak forcing, but some marginally
severe hail and/or wind is possible with the strongest storms
given instability profiles with 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE.

Besides convective chances, look for another warm day with
afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Expect south-southeasterly surface wind from 5 to 15 mph.

Thunderstorm chances should diminish after sunset with loss of
heating and lack of strong forcing. Tonight's lows will drop into
the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Daily convective chances continue through the end of the work week
with a parade of subtle weak waves aloft. Perhaps the best chance
will be Friday as a slightly better defined short-wave associated
with central Rockies low pressure lifts northward ahead of a
westward expanding 500 hPa ridge. If this ridge moves in quicker,
that may help to squash precipitation chances. With little change
in airmass, modest instability and weak shear will allow for any
stronger updrafts to produce marginally severe hail and/or wind,
but currently not outlooked by SPC for severe convection over the
next week.

High pressure aloft will dominate the regional weather pattern
this weekend, so current forecast POPs may be overdone and daily
highs not quite warm enough. Could potentially see more widespread
temperatures approaching or exceeding 90 degrees. Predictability
decreases quite a bit into early next week as medium-range models
struggle with the evolution of an retrograding east coast low. The
GFS cuts it off across the Ohio River Valley, while the ECMWF
remains a bit more progressive, moving it into the western
Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Line of showers/weak thunderstorms moving through Hwy 81/I-29
corridor to start this TAF period could produce some gusty winds
and brief heavy rainfall. Line approaching KFSD is weakening, but
could produce a brief shower or stray lightning strike within the
first hour of this new TAF period. Beyond that, better potential
for scattered storms through the afternoon/evening looks to be
east of I-29 corridor, with little if any impact on KHON/KFSD/KSUX
TAF sites.

Largely diurnally driven storms should diminish toward sunset,
with a chance of MVFR stratus moving in from the south toward
sunrise. Confidence in this and any associated showers/storms late
in this period is low, and thus will stick with VFR conditions and
no precip mention for now.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
344 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-010845-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
344 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tonight.
A few stronger storms this afternoon and early evening could
produce hail up to the size of quarters and 60 mph winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be continued chances for primarily late afternoon and
evening thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. At this time,
severe weather is unlikely with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Rogers