Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
559 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

THIS AFTERNOON - EVENING: Quiet conditions have largely returned to
the region in the wake of this mornings lingering showers and
storms, with latest observations showing relatively light winds and
temperatures in the 60s to 70s. As alluded to in the previous
discussion, have seen a bit of wildfire smoke drift overhead as
winds continue to shift to the northwest. While most of the smoke
should remain aloft, can't rule out the possibility of seeing some
brief impacts near the sfc through the afternoon, which include:
reductions in vsbys (perhaps as low as 5-6 SM) and decreased air
quality levels. Again, nothing compared to weeks past - but still
worth noting.

Heading into evening, could see another round of isolated showers
ahead of a secondary cold front, mainly across SW Minnesota and NW
Iowa. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Rather, expect
lighting and brief heavy downpours to be the primary hazards.
Otherwise, look for clearing skies and lows into the upper 40s to
lower 50s to prevail overnight.

SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT: Quiet conditions look to continue
Saturday as sfc high pressure builds across the region. Much like
this afternoon, should see northwesterly winds prevail, allowing
temperatures to remain quite pleasant. Thus, have afternoon highs
only rising into the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows falling
into the 40s. Anyone else looking forward to the return of sweater
weather?

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

SUNDAY - TUESDAY: Expect much of the same Sunday, as sfc high
pressure retains its influence across the region. So, have highs
once again rising into the low to mid 70s, with the warmest
temperatures generally along and west of the James River. Upper
level flow turns a bit more zonal heading into the new week, with
winds at the sfc becoming more southerly and breezy. Model guidance
also showcases a decent push of mid-level WAA during this time,
suggesting a warm up will be likely on Monday and Tuesday. While the
hot biased GEFS/GFS continues to skew NBM temperatures - do think
it's worth noting that ensemble guidance remains in fairly decent
agreement (> 60 to 70%) that highs greater than or equal to 80
degrees will be possible. Thus, with the aid of gusts in the upper
teens to lower 20s, think we stand of decent chance of seeing these
values being achieved. In regard to precipitation, could see a few
isolated showers develop Monday night across NW Iowa, with dry
conditions forecast to prevail otherwise.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: Model consistency begins to wane heading into
the latter half of the extended period, making it hard to put too
much confidence behind any one solution just yet. That being said,
most guidance does support afternoon highs returning to the 70s,
with overnight lows falling into the 50s. Overall moisture levels
also look to increase during this time as southwest flow develops
ahead of an advancing Colorado Low. As such, will likely see rain
chances return by the end of the upcoming week as the aforementioned
low takes aim at the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Scattered showers and thuunderstorms will move through far
southeast SD into northwest IA. The stronger activity will likely
be over shortly after sunset. Some spotty activity will be
possible during the overnight but for now that should remain
mostly showers with little lightning. Outside of any thunderstorms
VFR consitions are expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
354 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

MNZ071-SDZ038>040-050-052>061-063>065-068-161100-
Lincoln-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-
Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Charles Mix-Douglas-
Hutchinson-Bon Homme-
354 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Minnesota, central
South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota
and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy smoke from Canadian wildfires may reduce visibility and air
quality at times today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
NEZ013-014-SDZ062-066-067-069>071-161100-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-
Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln-Yankton-Union-
354 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska and southeast South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy smoke from Canadian wildfires may reduce visibility and air
quality at times today.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger in the area through
this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.