Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
218 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

The thunderstorm threat still exists late this afternoon and evening
as a fast moving mid level wave moves through. A nose of
instability juts into the area with about 2000 J/kg CAPE, so enough
to support some strong updrafts. However, shear is marginal at best
so any stronger updrafts that develop will be mostly shorter lived.
The lack of stronger mid and upper level winds also suggests that an
organized line of storms is pretty unlikely. So, an isolated storm
could produce golf ball or so sized hail and wind gusts of 65 to 70
mph. The latest models have been backing off on coverage, as seems
to have been the trend most of the summer, with the better chances
now north of I-90. Model soundings still suggest that some isolated
to scattered storms will be possible near and south of I-90 so not
completely buying into the idea that there will be nothing.
Otherwise a warm night with lows in the 60s.

Friday still shows potential for an isolated severe storm near and
east of I-29 from mid afternoon into early evening. With some
fairly strong shear and CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg a supercell
would be possible with hail to tennis ball, wind gusts to 65 mph and
an isolated tornado. It just comes down to being able to break the
cap which the latest runs are hinting could occur. Should be a warm
day with most locations topping out from the mid 80s to around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Other than a few spotty storms in northwest IA and southwest MN
early in the evening, Friday night into Saturday looks dry and warm
with northwest flow aloft. Lows should be in the upper 50s to lower
60s with highs in the 80s.

Saturday night into Sunday a bit strong wave digs into the Northern
Plains and northern MN which will bring the next better chance for
showers and thunderstorms, which should be late Saturday night into
Sunday. At this time severe weather looks unlikely with mainly
weaker elevated instability. With this stronger wave there is some
slightly more organized warm advection in the low to mid levels so
the chances for rainfall are pretty good. Behind this warm advection
will be some stronger cold advection so wind gusts around 30 mph in
the afternoon appear likely. With the good chances for rain and
additional cloud cover as well as an incoming cool front high
temperatures should be below normal and mainly in the 70s.

The better rain chances should shift east pretty quickly on Sunday
night with a cooler air mass left behind into Monday. This should
mean lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Breezy conditions will
remain with gusts of 20 to 25 mph likely.

Tuesday into Wednesday should see northwest flow aloft with mainly
dry and warm conditions. Highs in the 80s and lows 55 to 65.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening
into the early overnight. Scattered strong to possibly severe
storms will develop near the mid James Valley after about 5 pm,
then move towards I-29 by mid evening and into southwest MN after
about 9 pm. The better chances should be north of I-90. Outside of
any thunderstorms VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
449 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-111000-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
449 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered storms are expected to develop late this afternoon, west of
a line from Huron to Lake Andes South Dakota. Scattered to numerous
storms will move east across the remainder of southeast South Dakota,
into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa through the evening,
pushing east of the Highway 71 corridor between midnight and 2 am.
Some storms may become severe during the late afternoon and evening,
with up to 2 inch hail and wind gusts to 70 mph the primary threats.
While the potential is low, an isolated tornado and locally heavy
rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low chance of storms during the late afternoon to early
evening Friday, mainly in parts of southwest Minnesota. If storms
develop, strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
are possible.

Another round of storms is expected late Saturday night and Sunday.
While details on timing and location are still uncertain, a few
strong to severe storms will again be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible between 5 pm and midnight.