Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
338 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

TODAY: Flow aloft becomes zonal for the second half of the week. The
main concern for Wednesday is going to be the heat and humidity.
BUFKIT soundings show a pretty strong cap that takes most of the day
to erode, but once it does we will mix down very warm (32-36 degrees
C) 850 mb temperatures. Highs as a result will be widespread upper
90s with areas in central SD along the Missouri River reaching
triple digits. Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s, with a
few 70s, resulting in heat index values in the advisory category
(100+ F). As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of
southeastern SD, northeastern NE, and northwestern IA from 2 to 8
pm Wednesday afternoon. Lows will be warm, in the low 70s. Winds
will be out of the northwest around 5 to 10 mph with a few gusts
15 to 20 mph. In the evening a surface high pressure moves through
and winds become southerly.

TONIGHT: A subtle disturbance could bring a few isolated to
scattered showers/storms Wednesday evening. There is mixed layer and
elevated instability available, 1500-2000 J/kg, but it quickly falls
off over night. Model guidance for storm initiation is currently
lagging the best instability. Guidance is also low on agreement of
coverage and timing. With this in mind I think any storms that do
form will be weak and pulsy in nature. Will keep low PoPs in the
forecast for now.

THURSDAY: Thursday will be another hot and humid day. Similar to
Wednesday, very warm 850 mb temps (32-38 degrees C) and strong WAA
will result in surface temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s to
lower 100s. With dewpoints again in the upper 60s to mid 70s, a Heat
Advisory will likely be needed again Thursday as heat indices
approach 105 F. The area most likely to reach advisory criteria is
along and west of the James River Valley, and along I-90 from
Mitchell SD to Jackson MN and south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

A frontal boundary drops southward across the area on Thursday
night and Friday, though there are some model differences on how
quickly the front drops to the south of our area - and this could
make a slight difference with regard to highs for Friday. The
better consensus is for the front to be out of our area by 00Z in
the evening. Even so, temperatures will remain above normal with
highs upper 80s to mid 90s. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, it will remain humid. Confidence with regard to any
precipitation chances in the afternoon are low with varying model
solutions.

The front will be well to our south by Saturday, and with cold air
advection behind the front, it will be a much more pleasant day. With
lowering dewpoints, highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.

Unfortunately, the nicer temperatures will be short lived however as
an upper level ridge over the western CONUS begins to shift eastward
for the beginning of next week. With that, highs will creep back up
into the upper 80s to mid 90s for Sunday through Tuesday. Although a
couple shortwaves could slide over the ridge during the period,
possibly bringing periodic precipitation chances to the area,
confidence is low with regard to timing and areal coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Mostly VFR with occasional MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible with
developing showers and thunderstorms. Taking a look across the area,
two complexes of storms continue to push southeastward across
portions of the area. The first is over southeastern South Dakota
and the second is across central Minnesota. Both complexes are
capable of bringing heavy rain, large hail, and damaging winds to
parts of the area. Expect these storms to gradually dissipate over
the next several hours with a few more isolated showers possible
over southwestern MN. Otherwise, breezy southerly to southeasterly
winds should decouple overnight and continue into well into the day
to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Gumbs

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1055 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Ethan             43.55N 98.00W
07/25/2023  M63 MPH          Davison            SD   Public

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1056 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Ethan             43.55N 98.00W
07/25/2023  M75 MPH          Davison            SD   Public

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1122 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ESE Ethan             43.54N 97.96W
07/25/2023  M80 MPH          Hanson             SD   Storm Chaser

            Measured by Storm Chaser.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mount Vernon            43.72N 98.26W
07/25/2023                   Davison            SD   Public

            Social media report of widespread large tree
            damage and power outages in and around Mt.
            Vernon. Time estimated by radar.

&&

AJP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
100 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     Hail             1 SSW Garretson         43.71N 96.50W
07/26/2023  M0.75 inch       Minnehaha          SD   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

JC