Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
240 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

A relatively weak wave will continue to drop south through MN into
IA late this afternoon and evening. With some weak low to mid level
warm advection and a weaker cap late this afternoon isolated
thunderstorms will be possible. With CAPE values generally 1000 J/kg
or lower and fairly weak shear severe weather is not expected to be
very widespread. However, with a very dry sub cloud layer leading to
DCAPE values around 1200 J/kg there could be some gusty winds with
the stronger storms, possibly as high as 65 mph. Hail could reach
dime size. The better chances for this will be mostly near and east
of I-29. This activity should be mostly diurnally driven so not much
activity expected after sunset. There is some potential for an
isolated thunderstorm near the Missouri River in central SD as well
as a few locations have heated out. Lows will be mild in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

Northwest flow aloft with building heights should lead to a dry and
increasingly warm Sunday. Model soundings show a very strong cap in
place in most locations, weakest in central SD, so not expecting
storms to develop. Highs from the mid 80s in southwest MN to the mid
90s in central SD.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Sunday night into Monday morning a wave will drop south into the
area and increase the mid level warm air advection. This should
allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop, with the
better chances near and east of I-29. While isolated severe storms
will be possible the overall threat should be on the lower end.

Monday afternoon and night looks dry for now but if the wave is a
little slower or if any boundaries are left behind additional
activity will be possible. Temperatures start to climb on Monday
with highs from the mid and upper 80s east of I-29 to the mid 90s
in central SD.

Tuesday into Saturday will see upper level ridging try to build into
the area but some weak energy may occasionally beat the ridge down a
bit. One potentially better piece of energy looks to be from about
Wednesday night into Thursday night, but still far enough out not to
worry too much about details. Otherwise very warm with lows from the
mid 60s to lower 70s and highs in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into the evening, but most activity should diminish pretty
quickly after sunset. The better chances will be near and east of
I-29. The stronger storms later in the afternoon may produce
strong wind gusts to 65 mph. Outside of any showers and
thunderstorms VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
332 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

SDZ038-039-050-052>055-057>067-232045-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-Aurora-
Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Turner-Lincoln-
332 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. While the risk of severe weather is low, isolated stronger
storms could produce strong wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Increasing heat will build east across the region Sunday through
much of next week. Tuesday through Thursday, widespread highs in the
90s are likely, with heat indices possibly topping 100 degrees.
Prepare now to ensure you are ready for the combination of dangerous
heat and humidity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ040-056-068>071-232045-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Brookings-Moody-Bon Homme-Yankton-Union-
332 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South
Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. While the risk of severe weather is low, isolated stronger
storms could produce strong wind gusts of 60 mph and hail up to ping
pong ball size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Increasing heat will build east across the region Sunday through
much of next week. Tuesday through Thursday, widespread highs in the
90s are likely, with heat indices possibly topping 100 degrees.
Prepare now to ensure you are ready for the combination of dangerous
heat and humidity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
322 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     Hail             Arco                    44.39N 96.18W
07/22/2023  E1.25 inch       Lincoln            MN   Trained Spotter

&&

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
328 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     Hail             9 N Tracy               44.37N 95.60W
07/22/2023  M1.50 inch       Lyon               MN   Trained Spotter

            Hail lasted for 10 minutes.

&&

PS