Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

An upper shortwave with a compact jet max offers synoptic support
for some precipitation chances this afternoon. Winds from the
surface to around 700 mb are westerly, which should allow deep
mixing today. 850 mb temperatures in the 20-22 C range with
plentiful WAA should allow us to warm at the surface into the
upper 80s with low 90s west of the James River Valley. Winds as a
result will be a little bit gusty, 15-20 mph. Lapse rates
increasing to 7.3 to 7.5 C/km south of I-90. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg
and 0-6km bulk shear 35-40 kts, in a weakly capped environment
may allow for some thunderstorm development late this afternoon
and evening. However with the better vorticity in south central SD
and the better instability east of I-29, there is low confidence
on timing and location of thunderstorm development for this
afternoon.

Overnight, another round of convection is possible, this time
focused more over southwestern MN. Some elevated instability coupled
with some convergence on the nose of a westerly LLJ may be enough to
trigger overnight thunderstorms over southwestern MN and
northwestern IA. Lows tonight will be in the mid to low 60s.

Another upper wave moves through Friday afternoon, again bringing
chances for precipitation. BUFKIT soundings show a little bit of a
stronger cap, that will limit mixing somewhat until later in the
afternoon. Smoke also moves back into the area from the Canadian
wildfires. These factors will likely limit day time heating to the
mid 80s. Mid level lapse rates are lacking and better instability is
to the east of I-29 while the better forcing is to the west. But, if
the wave progresses eastward a little faster, we could get some
convection to break the cap in the late afternoon and result in some
isolated storm development. Any showers that do develop will clear
out in the overnight hours and Saturday should dawn partly cloudy.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Saturday and Sunday: Pronounced closed upper low drifts southward
through the weekend out of Canada placing our area in a broad
northwest flow regime. This may keep occasional wildfire smoke
impacts in the cards. Otherwise, precipitation chances look low with
probably the best (yet still low) chance late Sunday as a jet streak
dives into the area. Temperatures keep a gradual cooling trend given
the flow trajectory with mid 70s to mid 80s for highs.

Monday through Wednesday: Brief period of mid/upper level ridging
slides east for late Monday into Tuesday. This may allow for some
convection chances late Monday night into Tuesday on the initial push
of theta-e/instability. A stronger shortwave moves along the
International Border by midweek with tandem front draped southward.
This again may provide additional convection chances. Prior to FROPA
midweek, temperatures will likely take on a warming trend through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Convection, with a couple of severe storms, is ongoing as of
13.23z from roughly Egan SD to Tyler, MN. This is moving to the
southeast, and should stay to the northeast of the KFSD terminal.
These storms do have a history of producing hail to the size of
golf balls, and gusty winds up to 50 mph. Additional convection is
developing just to the north of those storms, which could become
severe over the next couple of hours. Showers and non-severe
storms are ongoing in central SD and east of Sioux Falls. Most
thunderstorms have been remaining on the lower end of VFR
conditions, but MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorms
and corresponding outflow boundaries may create erratic winds.

Thunderstorms are possible later tonight, with the greatest
chances along/south of the NE/SD border and S of I-90. Confidence
in occurrence and location are low and thus will omit from KSUX
at this time.

Winds through the period vary either side of westerly with gusts
around 20 knots this evening and again tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Wildfire smoke advects in during the latter half of the period,
although expect this to stay aloft with VFR conditions.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJP
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...SG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
237 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-141945-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
237 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
tonight. An isolated severe storm will be possible with half dollar
hail and 65 mph winds the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
819 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     Hail             5 ENE Ellsworth         43.55N 95.93W
07/13/2023  M2.75 inch       Nobles             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

Dux

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