River Flood Warning 4, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

880 
WGUS83 KFSD 300053
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
753 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Thursday evening at 1000 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-310300-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0004.230331T1912Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.RS.230331T1912Z.230403T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
753 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, significant amounts of pasture and other 
  farm lands begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 11.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.8
    feet early Monday morning. Additional rises are possible
    thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Thu   Fri   Sat

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   11.4   Wed 7 pm     11.4  12.6  13.2


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

Rogers

809 
WGUS83 KFSD 301534
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1034 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Friday afternoon at 1230 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-311745-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0004.230331T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.RS.230331T1200Z.230404T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1034 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...From Friday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, significant amounts of pasture and other 
  farm lands begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow morning and continue rising to 13.9 feet Monday
    evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter. The
    magnitude and timing of rises will be impacted by the amount
    of rain that falls late Thursday into Friday.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   11.5   Thu 9 am     12.4  13.2  13.7


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

Kalin

498 
WGUS83 KFSD 310103
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
803 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Friday evening at 1015 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-010315-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0004.230331T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.RS.230331T2000Z.230405T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
803 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, significant amounts of pasture and other 
  farm lands begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon and continue rising to 13.4 feet Tuesday
    evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   11.4   Thu 7 pm     12.2  12.6  12.9


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

Dux

359 
WGUS83 KFSD 311400
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
900 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Saturday morning at 1100 AM CDT.

&&


IAC059-011600-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0004.230331T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.RS.230331T1800Z.230403T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
900 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...From this afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying agricultural 
  lands begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CDT Friday the stage was 11.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this
    afternoon before eventually reaching 12.9 feet Tuesday
    morning. It will then fall gradually but remain above flood
    stage.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 am CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   11.7   Fri 8 am     12.6  12.6  12.8


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

776 
WGUS83 KFSD 311858
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
158 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Saturday afternoon at 400 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-012100-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.RS.230401T1200Z.230404T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
158 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying agricultural 
  lands begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 11.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
    tomorrow morning and continue rising to a crest of 12.7 feet
    Monday evening. Additional rises may be possible into the
    middle to later part of next week.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   11.8   Fri 1 pm     12.1  12.4  12.6


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

Kalin

495 
WGUS83 KFSD 010150
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
850 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Saturday evening at 1100 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-020400-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.RS.230401T1200Z.230404T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
850 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying agricultural 
  lands begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 11.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow morning, and continue rising to a crest of 12.7 feet
    Monday evening. Additional rises may be possible into the
    middle to later part of next week.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   11.9   Fri 7 pm     12.2  12.5  12.7


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

JH

607 
WGUS83 KFSD 011412
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
912 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Sunday morning at 1115 AM CDT.

&&


IAC059-021615-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.RS.230401T0800Z.230404T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
912 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying agricultural 
  lands begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 11.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to remain near flood stage
    today, and then continue rising to a crest of 12.6 feet
    Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 am CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   11.9   Sat 8 am     12.1  12.5  12.6


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

Masters

820 
WGUS83 KFSD 021451
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
951 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Monday morning at 1145 AM CDT.

&&


IAC059-031700-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230408T0600Z/
/MIFI4.1.RS.230401T0800Z.230403T0000Z.230407T0600Z.NO/
951 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying agricultural 
  lands begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 12.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 AM CDT Sunday was 12.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.5
    feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early
    Friday morning.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 am CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   12.4   Sun 8 am     12.5  12.5  12.4


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

Masters

397 
WGUS83 KFSD 030127
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
827 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Monday.

&&


IAC059-040330-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230408T1200Z/
/MIFI4.1.RS.230401T0800Z.230404T0000Z.230407T1200Z.NO/
827 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying agricultural 
  lands begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 12.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:00 PM CDT Sunday was 12.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.6
    feet tomorrow evening. It will then begin to fall.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   12.4   Sun 7 pm     12.6  12.5  12.4


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

BP

427 
WGUS83 KFSD 031517
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1017 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...

  Willow Creek near Crooks affecting Minnehaha County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Tuesday afternoon at 1215 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-041730-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230403T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1017 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying agricultural 
  lands begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 12.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 AM CDT Monday was 12.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to remain nearly steady
    around 12.9 feet through Tuesday afternoon, and then slowly
    fall.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   12.9   Mon 9 am     12.9  12.8  12.6


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

SDC099-041730-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WCCS2.1.SM.230402T2155Z.230403T0315Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1017 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Willow Creek near Crooks.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, the lower left banks overflow flooding some 
  pasture and hay land.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 9.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:15 AM CDT Monday was 9.8 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.


&&

            Fld    Observed            Forecasts (unknown time) 
Location    Stg    Stg    Day/Time     d1    d2    d3           

Willow Creek
Crooks      9.0    9.7    Mon 9 am     MSG   MSG   MSG          


&&

LAT...LON 4375 9684 4375 9682 4372 9684 4361 9682
      4356 9681 4356 9683 4361 9684 4372 9686


$$

Masters

662 
WGUS83 KFSD 040135
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
835 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...Iowa...

  Willow Creek near Crooks affecting Minnehaha County.

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Tuesday evening at 1045 PM CDT.

&&


SDC099-050345-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WCCS2.1.SM.230402T2155Z.230404T0015Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
835 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Willow Creek near Crooks.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, the lower left banks overflow flooding some 
  pasture and hay land.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM CDT Monday the stage was 9.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:15 PM CDT Monday was 9.9 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.


&&

            Fld    Observed            Forecasts (unknown time) 
Location    Stg    Stg    Day/Time     d1    d2    d3           

Willow Creek
Crooks      9.0    9.9    Mon 8 pm     MSG   MSG   MSG          


&&

LAT...LON 4375 9684 4375 9682 4372 9684 4361 9682
      4356 9681 4356 9683 4361 9684 4372 9686


$$

IAC059-050345-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230404T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
835 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, significant amounts of pasture and other 
  farm lands begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 13.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:00 PM CDT Monday was 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.1
    feet tonight and then gradually fall through the week.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   13.0   Mon 7 pm     13.1  12.9  12.7


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

Kalin

770 
WGUS83 KFSD 041525
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1025 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...
South Dakota...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

  Little Sioux River at Spencer affecting Clay County.

  Willow Creek near Crooks affecting Minnehaha County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Wednesday afternoon at 1215 PM CDT.

&&


IAC041-051730-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230406T0600Z/
/SPWI4.1.SM.230404T0435Z.230404T0800Z.230405T0600Z.NO/
1025 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River at Spencer.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, the right bank overflows, and minor 
  flooding of the Spencer city park and some rural agricultural 
  areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 10.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 AM CDT Tuesday was 10.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    just after midnight tonight and continue falling to 9.5 feet
    Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri

Little Sioux River
Spencer           10.0   10.0   Tue 9 am     9.9   9.8   9.7


&&

LAT...LON 4317 9520 4317 9514 4313 9502 4300 9501
      4296 9508 4296 9516 4306 9508 4312 9519


$$

SDC099-051730-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WCCS2.1.SM.230402T2155Z.230404T0015Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1025 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Willow Creek near Crooks.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, the lower left banks overflow flooding some 
  pasture and hay land.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 9.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:15 AM CDT Tuesday was 9.8 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.


&&

            Fld    Observed            Forecasts (unknown time) 
Location    Stg    Stg    Day/Time     d1    d2    d3           

Willow Creek
Crooks      9.0    9.3    Tue 9 am     MSG   MSG   MSG          


&&

LAT...LON 4375 9684 4375 9682 4372 9684 4361 9682
      4356 9681 4356 9683 4361 9684 4372 9686


$$

IAC059-051730-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230405T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1025 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, significant amounts of pasture and other 
  farm lands begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 13.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 AM CDT Tuesday was 13.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.4
    feet just after midnight tonight...and then slowly fall
    through the weekend.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   13.3   Tue 9 am     13.4  13.2  13.0


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

Masters

743 
WGUS83 KFSD 042034
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
334 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River at Spencer affecting Clay County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...Iowa...

  Willow Creek near Crooks affecting Minnehaha County.

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Wednesday afternoon at 530 PM CDT.

&&


IAC041-052245-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230407T1200Z/
/SPWI4.1.SM.230404T0435Z.230404T0800Z.230406T1200Z.NO/
334 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River at Spencer.

* WHEN...Until Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, the right bank overflows, and minor 
  flooding of the Spencer city park and some rural agricultural 
  areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 10.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday was 10.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    Thursday morning and continue falling to 9.6 feet early
    Sunday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri

Little Sioux River
Spencer           10.0   10.0   Tue 2 pm     10.0  9.9   9.8


&&

LAT...LON 4317 9520 4317 9514 4313 9502 4300 9501
      4296 9508 4296 9516 4306 9508 4312 9519


$$

SDC099-052245-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WCCS2.1.SM.230402T2155Z.230404T0015Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
334 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Willow Creek near Crooks.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, the lower left banks overflow flooding some 
  pasture and hay land.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 9.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:15 AM CDT Tuesday was 9.5 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.


&&

            Fld    Observed            Forecasts (unknown time) 
Location    Stg    Stg    Day/Time     d1    d2    d3           

Willow Creek
Crooks      9.0    9.4    Tue 11 am    MSG   MSG   MSG          


&&

LAT...LON 4375 9684 4375 9682 4372 9684 4361 9682
      4356 9681 4356 9683 4361 9684 4372 9686


$$

IAC059-052245-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230405T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
334 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, significant amounts of pasture and other 
  farm lands begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 13.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday was 13.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.8
    feet early tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   13.4   Tue 2 pm     13.8  13.8  13.7


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

SST

222 
WGUS83 KFSD 051625
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...Iowa...

  Willow Creek near Crooks affecting Minnehaha County.

  Little Sioux River at Spencer affecting Clay County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next scheduled statement will be issued late Thursday morning.

&&


IAC041-051730-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230405T1625Z/
/SPWI4.1.SM.230404T0435Z.230404T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Little Sioux River at Spencer.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 9.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 9.2 feet Monday
    morning.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Thu   Fri   Sat

Little Sioux River
Spencer           10.0   9.9    Wed 10 am    9.6   9.5   9.3


&&

LAT...LON 4317 9520 4317 9514 4313 9502 4300 9501
      4296 9508 4296 9516 4306 9508 4312 9519


$$

SDC099-051730-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230405T1625Z/
/WCCS2.1.SM.230402T2155Z.230404T0015Z.230405T1124Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Willow Creek near Crooks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 8.9 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.


&&

            Fld    Observed            Forecasts (unknown time) 
Location    Stg    Stg    Day/Time     d1    d2    d3           

Willow Creek
Crooks      9.0    8.9    Wed 10 am    MSG   MSG   MSG          


&&

LAT...LON 4375 9684 4375 9682 4372 9684 4361 9682
      4356 9681 4356 9683 4361 9684 4372 9686


$$

IAC059-061830-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230405T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, significant amounts of pasture and other 
  farm lands begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 13.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 10:00 AM CDT Wednesday was 13.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to remain near the crest of
    13.7 feet this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Thu   Fri   Sat

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   13.5   Wed 10 am    13.7  13.6  13.3


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

SG

973 
WGUS83 KFSD 061451
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
951 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Friday afternoon at 1200 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-071700-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230406T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
951 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, significant amounts of pasture and other 
  farm lands begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 13.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 AM CDT Thursday was 13.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.5
    feet this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 am CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   13.3   Thu 8 am     13.5  13.3  13.2


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

502 
WGUS83 KFSD 061530
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1030 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Friday afternoon at 1230 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-071730-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230406T0400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1030 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, significant amounts of pasture and other 
  farm lands begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 13.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 AM CDT Thursday was 13.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.4
    feet tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   13.3   Thu 8 am     13.3  13.2  13.2


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

384 
WGUS83 KFSD 070152
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
852 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Friday evening at 1100 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-080400-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230406T0400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
852 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying agricultural 
  lands begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 12.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 PM CDT Thursday was 13.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 12.3 feet Tuesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   12.9   Thu 8 pm     12.8  12.8  12.7


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

SST

557 
WGUS83 KFSD 080155
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
855 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Saturday evening at 1100 PM CDT.

&&


IAC059-090400-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230409T1800Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230406T0400Z.230408T1800Z.NO/
855 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Little Sioux River near Milford.

* WHEN...Until early Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying agricultural 
  lands begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 12.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:00 PM CDT Friday was 12.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 11.5 feet
    Wednesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (7 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   12.2   Fri 7 pm     11.9  11.9  11.7


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

Masters

459 
WGUS83 KFSD 081638
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1138 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2023

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Little Sioux River near Milford affecting Dickinson County.

IAC059-081745-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230408T1638Z/
/MIFI4.1.SM.230401T0800Z.230406T0400Z.230408T1336Z.NO/
1138 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Little Sioux River near Milford.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 12.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 11.3 feet
    Thursday morning.


&&

  Fld    Observed            Forecasts (1 pm CDT)
Location          Stg    Stg    Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue

Little Sioux River
Milford           12.0   12.0   Sat 10 am    11.7  11.6  11.5


&&

LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9523 4330 9515 4326 9520
      4326 9527 4329 9523


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1140 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Key Messages:

1. Light snow diminishes this morning, with cold temperatures and
surface high pressure today.

2. Multi-faceted, multi hazard system remains progged to impact the
Plains tomorrow and Friday. Severe weather, heavy rain, heavy snow,
and strong winds are all in play.

3. Reprieve for the weekend, with a warmer day likely Sunday.

4. Another system is poised to impact the region early to mid next
week. However, confidence is very low regarding any details given
wide model spread.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Through Daybreak: Cold start once again to the day with 08z/3 AM CDT
temperatures in the teens and 20s. Light snow continues to slide
east for those along and south of I-90 through this morning.
Accumulations are expected to remain below an inch. Northerly winds
have been breezy at times, with gusts around 30 mph, which may
produce reduced visibility in falling snow.

Rest of Today: Any snow should come to an end by mid morning.
Between CAA overhead and cold, Canadian surface high pressure
sliding overhead, another colder than average day expected. Highs
today range from the lower 20s (southwestern MN) to the mid/upper
30s (Highway 20). Not only are these highs near to below to our
average lows, but for most of the area, fall closer to or below
average highs for early January. Those near/along Hwy 20 will have
temperatures closer to mid/late February averages. Relatively light
easterly winds prevail, with clouds diminishing for a time mid day
into the evening.

Tonight: May see warming temperatures tonight, as robust WAA swings
up from the southwest, and ridging builds and southerly flow aloft
strengthens. Additionally, surface flow shifts southeasterly as our
cold surface high slides east. We'll see winds strengthen late
tonight too, as the surface pressure gradient (SPG) begins
tightening in response to the developing surface low to the west.
Winds around 10-20 mph by daybreak with gusts 25-30 mph.
Southeasterly flow likely aids in moisture advection as well. Lows
tonight range from the single digits in southwestern MN to the mid
20s along the Highway 20 corridor. Clouds should increase from south
to north with the influx of moisture and WAA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Lots to talk about Thursday and beyond. Will use a line break to
help differentiate the bulk of the upcoming system from the rest of
the extended.

Thursday: Mid and upper level ridging continues to develop overhead
during Thursday, with the ridge axis sliding east during the day.
Precipitation is possible during the day on Thursday, with the WAA
continuing and LLJ ramping up across northwestern IA and into
southwestern MN. A few factors do go against this potential though -
capping, little to no instability, and models struggling with
moisture via a potential dry slot. Can't rule out some patchy
drizzle and/or sprinkles with lingering stratus. All that said, have
kept pops to 30 or less for the most part in the east through the
day, given aforementioned limiting factors.

Stratus will also play a big role in temperatures, both with
respective to sunshine and mixing. Still see a large spread between
the deterministic guidance and ensembles, as well as the
probabilities in highs. For example, the spread between the 25th
percentile of NBM and 75th percentile of NBM remains around 12
degrees. 925mb temps between models for SUX vary from one degree C
to around 16 deg C! Overall, given much warmer temps aloft and
mixing potential if stratus is absent, have trended a bit warmer
along the NE/SD border toward the Hwy 20 corridor. Highs from the
upper 30s in the north near Hwy 14 to mid/upper 60s south.

Thursday evening/night: Surface low pressure begins to eject out of
the Rockies late Thursday afternoon through the evening and night.
Given moisture return and warm air, models continue to indicate a
high shear/low CAPE environment developing across portions of the
forecast area by Thursday evening. This environment along with steep
mid level lapse rates near/above 7 deg C/km could bring some strong
to severe storms to the area. Main threat given the lapse rates
would be hail, although strong wind gusts are possible with a few
hundred joules of DCAPE, if a storm were to be able to punch through
the stout inversion. Additionally, heavy rain is a threat with PWATs
approaching the 90th percentile, combined with possible downstream
storm development/training along the warm front and antecedent
ground conditions. Both of these threats are outlined by the Day 2
Marginals from SPC and WPC, respectively.

Center of the surface low sweeps across NE during this time, which
would bring a lull to the synoptic winds. We'll begin to see the
shift to northerly for those east of the James, although with timing
differences in the models, this shift is uncertain. Cold air will
then begin to wrap in, with a brief period of mix possible as
locations switch to snow. Can't rule out thunder across the area as
well, regardless of severe weather threat, given meager instability
should cap be broken. Lows likely vary from the 20s in the west to
mid 40s in the southeast.

Friday and Friday night: Low treks northward into our area by Friday
morning, with the transition to winter precip continuing. SPG
tightens along with strong flow aloft mixing down leads to strong
winds expanding west to east through Friday and Friday night.
Although GFS and NAM guidance shows the potential for 50+ mph gusts
late Friday afternoon through Friday night, have tapered this down
using the 10th percentile NBM and limiting values, as most other
guidance is not this robust with winds aloft that may be mixed down.
Temps likely don't recover much, with possibly a non-diurnal trend
depending on which model's timing is realized. Highs in the 30s to
50s, warmest in northwestern IA. Lows fall into the single digits
to lower 20s as the CAA wraps in and northerly flow dominates.

A strong to severe storm is possible in the east (our far
southeastern counties) Friday afternoon, depending on where the
triple point and low pressure are centered. With more instability
and aided by the boundaries in place, any single cells may grow
upscale as they trek east. Greatest risk of severe weather exists
from central IA to ArkLaTex to the OH Valley. SPC Marginal in our
northwestern IA counties for Day 3 highlights the threat in our area.

Heavy snow is likely for portions of the area, given the ample
moisture as cold air swings in. Have held off on any headlines
(Winter Storm Watch) in collaboration with neighbors, although
believe one will be needed later today with higher confidence in
change-over timing. There is a 60+% chance that some folks west of
the James and across higher elevations of southwestern MN and
eastern SD could see 6 inches of snow or more, but the confidence
in this is low given clustering in the ensemble models near/below
this value. Strong winds will likely create blowing and drifting
snow into Saturday regardless of amounts.

All in all, the GFS is becoming less of an outlier as of the 29.00z
runs with the evolution of the entire system, albeit remaining
slower than the others.

With a multi-faceted and large system bringing numerous potential
impacts to the region, it's imperative for folks to keep an eye on
the forecast, as it is likely to change. Prepare now for all
hazards. Be prepared to change or cancel local and regional travel
plans.

_____________________________________________________________________

Weekend: Low pressure and upper trough slides off toward the Great
Lakes by Saturday afternoon. Would expect any lingering wrap around
precip to end by then. We'll likely be colder and breezy, with CAA,
northwesterly flow and building surface high pressure Saturday. This
will lead to highs in the 30s and 40s. Strong winds start the day
Saturday, tapering down as the aforementioned surface high slides
in. A quick moving mid level short wave may move through during the
day, but not expecting much in the way of impacts. Lows Saturday
night in the 20s and 30s. Sunday brings more zonal flow and WAA to
the region. Highs in the 40s to lower/mid 60s, warmest in
northwestern IA and into the Highway 20 corridor.

Monday and Tuesday: Zonal flow and a couple of short waves with
temperatures near to below normal. Ridge briefly builds in ahead of
the next system mid next week. Models have even less certainty with
this potential system than with the one later this week, but early
to mid next week will be a time period to keep an eye on in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. Light
northeasterly winds today will transition to southeasterly later
tonight, increasing with gusts around 30 kts by mid morning on
Thursday. There are some indications that MVFR stratus will
develop later on Thursday morning, though this would occur at the
very end of the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SG
LONG TERM...SG
AVIATION...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
419 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-300930-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
419 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Light snow south of Interstate 90 tapers off by late this morning.
Accumulations are expected to remain below one inch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Precipitation chances return Thursday through Friday night, but
confidence in details regarding precipitation types and amounts is
low at this time. However, isolated strong to severe storms, locally
heavy rainfall, and heavy snow are all possible across the northern
and central Plains. Strong winds are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.