Frost Advisory 2, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

316 
WWUS73 KFSD 100224
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
924 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

SDZ052-058-059-101400-
/O.EXA.KFSD.FR.Y.0002.231010T0600Z-231010T1400Z/
Jerauld-Aurora-Davison-
Including the cities of Wessington Springs, Alpena, Plankinton, 
White Lake, Stickney, and Mitchell
924 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 31 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Jerauld, Aurora and Davison Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-053>056-060>062-065>067-069>071-101400-
/O.CON.KFSD.FR.Y.0002.231010T0600Z-231010T1400Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Sanborn-
Miner-Lake-Moody-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Hutchinson-Turner-
Yankton-Union-
Including the cities of Rock Rapids, George, Inwood, Larchwood, 
Sibley, Spirit Lake, Milford, Arnolds Park, Sioux Center, 
Orange City, Rock Valley, Hawarden, Hull, Sheldon, Hartley, 
Sanborn, Spencer, Le Mars, Cherokee, Storm Lake, Sioux City, 
Ida Grove, Holstein, Battle Creek, Tyler, Hendricks, Lake Benton,
Ivanhoe, Marshall, Slayton, Fulda, Windom, Mountain Lake, 
Worthington, Jackson, Lakefield, Pipestone, Luverne, Wakefield, 
Ponca, Allen, South Sioux City, Huron, De Smet, Arlington, 
Lake Preston, Brookings, Woonsocket, Howard, Madison, Orland, 
Flandreau, Alexandria, Emery, Salem, Canistota, Bridgewater, 
Montrose, Sioux Falls, Parkston, Freeman, Menno, Tripp, Clayton, 
Parker, Centerville, Marion, Viborg, Irene, Hurley, Chancellor, 
Canton, Lennox, Tea, Harrisburg, Yankton, Vermillion, 
North Sioux City, Beresford, Elk Point, Alcester, and Jefferson
924 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
2
...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 30 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Iowa, southwest 
  Minnesota, northeast Nebraska and east central and southeast 
  South Dakota.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

674 
WWUS73 KFSD 101347
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
847 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-052>056-058>062-065>067-069>071-101500-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231010T1400Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Jerauld-
Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Hutchinson-Turner-Yankton-Union-
Including the cities of Rock Rapids, George, Inwood, Larchwood, 
Sibley, Spirit Lake, Milford, Arnolds Park, Sioux Center, 
Orange City, Rock Valley, Hawarden, Hull, Sheldon, Hartley, 
Sanborn, Spencer, Le Mars, Cherokee, Storm Lake, Sioux City, 
Ida Grove, Holstein, Battle Creek, Tyler, Hendricks, Lake Benton,
Ivanhoe, Marshall, Slayton, Fulda, Windom, Mountain Lake, 
Worthington, Jackson, Lakefield, Pipestone, Luverne, Wakefield, 
Ponca, Allen, South Sioux City, Huron, De Smet, Arlington, 
Lake Preston, Brookings, Wessington Springs, Alpena, Woonsocket, 
Howard, Madison, Orland, Flandreau, Plankinton, White Lake, 
Stickney, Mitchell, Alexandria, Emery, Salem, Canistota, 
Bridgewater, Montrose, Sioux Falls, Parkston, Freeman, Menno, 
Tripp, Clayton, Parker, Centerville, Marion, Viborg, Irene, 
Hurley, Chancellor, Canton, Lennox, Tea, Harrisburg, Yankton, 
Vermillion, North Sioux City, Beresford, Elk Point, Alcester, 
and Jefferson
847 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

We are beginning to warm up this morning and therefore the Frost
Advisory will be allowed to expire as scheduled this morning. 

This is the final Frost/Freeze headline we will issue for this
growing season. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1226 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Seasonally cool temperatures continue today, with areas of frost
likely overnight.

2. Temperatures moderate back into the upper 50s to mid 60s Tuesday
and Wednesday.

3. Rain chances return to the forecast Wednesday afternoon through
Friday night, in addition to seasonally cool temperatures.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region, with latest
observation showing light winds and temperatures in the mid 30s to
low 40s. In regard to frost, think any development prior to daybreak
would remain patchy in nature, especially as a narrow band of
stratus continues to drift southwestward across the region.

Similar to Sunday, look for north/northwesterly winds to prevail
across our area as a pronounced upper level low continues to spin
over the northeastern CONUS. As a result, expect afternoon highs to
remain seasonally cool, despite having ample sunshine in place.
Currently have temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s,
with the coolest values generally along and northeast of the Buffalo
Ridge. Heading into the evening and overnight period, will see winds
to turn a bit more easterly under mostly clear skies. While
radiational cooling looks to be optimized during this time, latest
hi-res guidance has come in a touch warmer, resulting in more
widespread lows near or above freezing. Thus, while frost
development will be likely, think the areal extent will not be as
widespread as initially expected. For now, have opted to forgo any
headlines for the time being after collaboration with neighbors - so
continue to check back for future updates.

Quiet weather continues Tuesday as weak upper level ridging briefly
slides across the region. Winds throughout the day should remain
primarily remain out of the southeast, allowing highs to range from
the mid 50s across southwest Minnesota to the mid 60s along the MO
River Valley.

Unsettled weather returns Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
low over the Pacific Northwest dives southeastward and takes aim at
the region. Most guidance generally agrees that the aforementioned
low will reside somewhere over the WY/ND/SD border near daybreak
Wednesday then slowly push eastward across the north central Plains
through Friday. That being said, still seeing some subtle
differences concerning the exact track and timing of this feature.
Latest deterministic GFS/CMC runs keep the center of the low along
and south of I-90, whereas the ECMWF is a touch further norther and
more centered directly overhead. Thus, still a bit too early to put
to much confidence behind any one solution just yet as the track
could still wobble a bit in the coming days. In regard to QPF, both
ECMWF/GEFS ensembles suggest a 80-100% chance of seeing at least a
tenth of an inch. However, when looking at the probability of seeing
half an inch or more, the ECMWF ensemble would still suggest a 80-
100% chance, whereas the GEFS ensemble has a much wider range (50-
100%), with the highest probabilities generally over northeast
Nebraska and northwest Iowa. So, in short, a decent amount of
uncertainty still exist to speculate on the finer details just yet.
Will continue to monitor trends in the meantime. Otherwise, look for
unseasonably cool temperatures to continue during this time, as
highs rise into the upper 40s to 50s and overnight lows fall into
the upper 30s to 40s. Aside from a few lingering showers Saturday
morning, should see dry conditions prevail this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

TAF

VFR conditions are expected for this period. Some midlevel clouds
over eastern SD and southwestern MN are expected to dissipate as
the day continues. Winds will be light and northerly eventually
becoming variable overnight. Wednesday morning winds become
southeasterly.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...AJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
342 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-100845-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
342 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy frost may be possible this morning as temperatures fall into
the 30s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Widespread frost may be possible Tuesday morning as temperatures
fall into the lower 30s.

Rain chances increase by Thursday and continue into Friday. While
some uncertainty still remains concerning the track of this strong
fall system, there is the potential for localized heavy rainfall
totals.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.