Wind Advisory 8, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
756 PM MST Sat Apr 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures and dry conditions continue into
Sunday, along with breezy southwest winds. Cooling temperatures
and gusty winds then set in over the region for Monday and
Tuesday, chances for rain and snow showers will also be possible
on Monday. Warming temperatures and drier conditions then return
for the second-half of the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...Clear skies and cool temperatures are expected overnight
tonight. Light and variables winds are also expected, before
increasing out of the southwest for the day on Sunday. Outside of
the breezy winds, another dry and mild day is expected across
central and northern Arizona.

The afternoon forecast package remains on track and in good
shape, with no major updates needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /254 PM MST/...Satellite imagery shows the next
big weather maker currently stationed over the northern Gulf of
Alaska with benign conditions over all of northern Arizona.
Expect warm and dry conditions to continue into Sunday afternoon
with southwesterly winds around 15-30 mph.

Southwesterly winds will begin to ramp up Sunday afternoon as the
pressure gradient tightens with the approach of the aforementioned
low. The tightest pressure gradients, and strongest winds, look
to peak Monday afternoon between noon and 4 p.m. Expect widespread
winds gusting to 60 mph with locally stronger wind gusts up to 75
mph possible. Models are in very good agreement regarding this
strong wind event, with a 95% chance that these wind speeds will
be reached. Due to this, confidence is currently on the higher end
and a High Wind Watch remains in effect from Monday morning
through Monday evening for the Yavapai County Mountains and areas
near and northeast of the Mogollon Rim. Impacts associated with
this high wind event include dangerous travel for high-profile
vehicles, damage to property, blowing dust, power outages, downed
trees and power lines. Secure loose objects now!

Wildfire Awareness Week wraps up tonight and this is another
reminder that wildfire poses a risk, even despite all of the
rain/snow that has been received. Dead grasses from last season
are unable to absorb moisture, so they dry out quickly, and then
have the capacity to burn. This explains the recent uptick in
brush fires in these dead grasses. Keep heat sources away from
grasses because if a brush fire starts on Monday... it will spread
out of control quickly with wind gusts of 60+ mph.

Rain/snow chances are within the 15 to 50 percent range depending
on where you are in northern Arizona. The highest chances will be
for northeastern Arizona. Expect highest snowfall totals for the
Kaibab Plateau south of Jacob Lake (~4 inches) and the Chuska
Mountains (~2 inches). Areas immediately surrounding these
locations and south towards Flagstaff look to pick up another 0.5
to 1.5 inches of snow.

As winter continues to have it's death grip on us, temperatures
will be about 10 to 20 degrees colder Tuesday morning after this
system clears out. Radiational cooling, combined with the snowpack
for days, will contribute to a drop in temperatures similar to
what was seen just a few days ago.

After this, conditions look to dry out and warm up. The newest
long-term guidance suggests the first hint of a typical warm and
breezy Spring (booo fire weather season but yay end of winter?)
with the strongest ridge of high pressure over the western United
States most of us haven't seen in a very long time. And no, after
shoveling 162.6 inches of snow this season, we wouldn't even joke
about this even though it's April Fools' Day.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z TAF package...VFR persists through
the TAF period with clear sky conditions. Light and variable winds
overnight will give way to gusty southwest winds, 15-20 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts after 18Z. Winds become stronger after 06Z Mon
ahead of a strong cold front. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mild, near average temperatures are expected on
Sunday with gusty southwest winds, 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
mph. Dry conditions will remain in place with afternoon humidity at
or below 15% for valley locations and across much of northeast
Arizona. Winds become stronger Sunday night and into Monday, peaking
Monday afternoon and evening with gusts of 45 to 60 mph likely.
Stronger downsloping winds are expected during this time with
localized gusts of 65 mph or higher.

Tuesday through Thursday...Precipitation looks minimal across the
region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Gusty northwest winds with
much colder temperatures are forecast on Tuesday, followed by a
warming trend with lighter winds on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
AZZ004>017-038>040-104>117-138>140.

&&

PUBLIC...Humphreys/LaGuardia
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff