Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
120 PM MST Sat Jul 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to bring hot conditions to
Arizona through early next week with slightly cooler temperatures
the rest of the week. Increasing moisture will bring a chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains in control of our weather
through the next week. Slight shifts in the location of the high
will drive precipitation chances across the region.

Shower activity has been much more isolated today as a northerly
flow has pushed through much of the region and has brought in some
drier air, dropping dew points back into the 30s. South of the
Mogollon Rim and near the White Mountains remains the best locations
for any continued storm development through early this evening.
Instability remains pretty limited so far this afternoon and as the
sun sets we will lose most of the needed energy to sustain
thunderstorms. Overall, not a great monsoon day across the region.

The high is located across northern Arizona today and is gradually
shifting over the Four Corners. This has kept the heat around the
region though it should be starting to lessen over the coming week.
Once the high is over Four Corners, we will start to see a more
favorable pattern to bring more moisture into the area.

With increasing moisture, we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage as we head into the early part of week. Sunday through Tuesday
looks to have the best chances across the region as the high will
remain closer to the Four Corners. Unfortunately, the high
continues to push to the east and we will lose the best flow
needed to keep the monsoon active in our area. Best chances will
shift back over the eastern Rim and the Whites as we go through
the week. It looks like we are still waiting for the real start of
the monsoon and this summer is just not panning out to be the way
we would like. Hopefully this progressive pattern we have held
onto will start to break down and give us the stormy pattern we
would prefer.

One good thing is the heat will lessen some as we should see some
more cloud cover in response to the incoming moisture. Daytime highs
will creep down a few degrees each day and become much closer to the
normal by mid-week. As a result of the anticipated cooling this
coming week, extension of the heat headlines is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF Package...Mainly VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period. SCT to BKN cloud cover will clear overnight.
North to northeast winds 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts around 20
knots, becoming light and variable overnight. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA,
mainly south of a KGCN-KCMR-KFLG-KSOW-KSJN line, with ISO activity
elsewhere. All storm activity ending around 03Z. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds of 30 to 40 knots possible near storms. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Moisture increases while above-
normal temperatures continue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
become more widespread through Monday. Expect gusty, erratic outflow
winds near any storms. Generally light winds with gusts around 20
mph and minimum RH values in the teens to mid-20s each afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...Moisture increase through midweek while
temperatures cool slightly. Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Expect gusty, erratic
outflow winds near any storms. Minimum RH values in the upper teens
to mid 20s each afternoon. Generally light southwest winds, with
afternoon gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for
AZZ005.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ018-
037.

&&

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff