Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
910 AM MST Wed May 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the week and into the weekend. Daytime temperatures
will be near to slightly above normal. Storm threats each day will
include lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. Brief heavy rain
will lead to localized runoff and minor flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The Four Corners high has become disorganized and
weaker in the last 48 hours, due to a trough in south-central Canada
that will serve to move the high westward in the coming days. This
has helped to destabilize our airmass, while keeping moisture levels
about the same. 12Z sounding at KFGZ indicates decent instability
and above normal moisture, additionally, surface dewpoints are now
in the 40s and 50s statewide. This will lead to another active day
for our CWA, with stronger convection along the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains, moving southward. Convection in the northeastern
zones will be slow to start, due to extensive debris cloud and
showers in the area.

A weak upper low also continues to churn over the western Gulf of
California. This will remain in place through the weekend, as the
mid-level high strengthens and consolidates over western Nevada.
This will keep easterly flow aloft over our area, with low-level
southerly flow, there will be nothing to scour the moisture out.
This active pattern will continue into at least early next week and
maybe longer, depending on the strength of the western trough
advertised for next week. Stay tuned.

No short term updates are planned this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF Package...Mainly VFR conditions are
expected for the 24 hour TAF forecast period. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA and
ISOLD +TSRA, mainly from 18Z-03Z, will produce localized MVFR. Sfc
winds generally light and variable, with gusts to 40-45kts possible
near any thunderstorms and outflows. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Expect scattered to
numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.
Generally light winds, although outflows and thunderstorm gusts may
exceed 40 mph at times.

Friday through Sunday...Expect scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day. Generally light winds, although
outflows and thunderstorm gusts may exceed 40 mph at times. Storm
coverage may decrease slightly by Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
110 PM MST WED MAY 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             2 ESE FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT 35.13N 111.63W
05/17/2023  E0.25 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RKR